CoreLogic: Annual US Home Price Growth Dips Below 5% in May as Pric...

• U.S. home prices posted a 4.9% year-over-year gain in May, the lowest rate of appreciation recorded since October 2023.
• May's monthly gains, up by 0.6%, slowed to below pre-pandemic levels after four months of hotter home price increases.
• All states saw annual home price gains, ranging from 0.9% in Louisiana and Texas to 12% in New Hampshire.

IRVINE, Calif., July 2, 2024-CoreLogic®, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI^™) and HPI Forecast^™ for May 2024.

U.S. year-over-year home price gains inched down to 4.9% in May, though it was still the 148^th consecutive month of annual growth. As has been the case for the past year, the Northeast continued to lead the country for annual appreciation, with New Hampshire the only state to post a double-digit increase. Meanwhile, the price growth gap between detached homes and attached homes further widened, likely indicating homebuyer preferences for more personal space to work from home after the height of the pandemic, as well as surging HOA fees due to maintenance costs.

"While national annual home price growth continues to slow as anticipated, cooling appreciation over the past months is now observed in more markets, as the surge in mortgage rates this spring caused both slowing homebuyer demand and prices," said Dr. Selma Hepp, chief economist for CoreLogic. "However, persistently stronger home price gains this spring continue in markets where inventory is well below pre-pandemic levels, such as those in the Northeast."

"Also, markets that are relatively more affordable, such as those in the Midwest, have seen healthy price growth this spring," Hepp continued. "On the other hand, markets with notable inventory increases, including those in Florida and Texas, continue to see annual deceleration that is pulling prices below numbers recorded last year."

Top Takeaways:

• U.S. single-family home prices (including distressed sales) increased by 4.9% year over year in May 2024 compared with May 2023. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 0.6% compared with April 2024.
• In May, the annual appreciation of detached properties (5.4%) was 2.6 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (2.8%).
• CoreLogic's forecast shows annual U.S. home price gains relaxing to 3% in May 2025.
• San Diego posted the highest year-over-year home price increase of the country's 10 highlighted metro areas in May, at 9.2%. Miami saw the next-highest gain at 8.5%.
• Among states, New Hampshire ranked first for annual appreciation in May (up by 12%), followed by New Jersey and Rhode Island (both up by 9.8%). No state recorded a year-over-year home price loss.

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring June 2024 data, is scheduled to be issued on August 6, 2024, at 8 a.m. EST.

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI^™ is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the Single-Family Combined tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

CoreLogic HPI Forecasts^™ are based on a two-stage, error-correction econometric model that combines the equilibrium home price-as a function of real disposable income per capita-with short-run fluctuations caused by market momentum, mean-reversion, and exogenous economic shocks like changes in the unemployment rate. With a 30-year forecast horizon, CoreLogic HPI Forecasts project CoreLogic HPI levels for two tiers - Single-Family Combined (both attached and detached) and Single-Family Combined Excluding Distressed Sales. As a companion to the CoreLogic HPI Forecasts, Stress-Testing Scenarios align with Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR) national scenarios to project five years of home prices under baseline, adverse and severely adverse scenarios at state, metropolitan areas and ZIP Code levels. The forecast accuracy represents a 95% statistical confidence interval with a +/- 2% margin of error for the index.

About Market Risk Indicators

Market Risk Indicators are a subscription-based analytics solution that provide monthly updates on the overall health of housing markets across the country. CoreLogic data scientists combine world-class analytics with detailed economic and housing data to help determine the likelihood of a housing bubble burst in 392 major metros and all 50 states. Market Risk Indicators is a multi-phase regression model that provides a probability score (from 1 to 100) on the likelihood of two scenarios per metro: a >10% price reduction and a ≤ 10% price reduction. The higher the score, the higher the risk of a price reduction.

About the Market Condition Indicators

As part of the CoreLogic HPI and HPI Forecasts offerings, Market Condition Indicators are available for all metropolitan areas and identify individual markets as overvalued, at value or undervalued. These indicators are derived from the long-term fundamental values, which are a function of real disposable income per capita. Markets are labeled as overvalued if the current home price indexes exceed their long-term values by greater than 10% and undervalued where the long-term values exceed the index levels by greater than 10%.

Source: CoreLogic

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About CoreLogic

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