Population, Employment, Housing Forecasts Help Guide Loudoun’s Long-Term Planning

The Loudoun County Board of Supervisors approved a set of guidelines during its December 3, 2024, meeting that is intended to help the county plan for future growth and associated needs. The guidelines, recommended by the county's Fiscal Impact Committee (FIC), include updated long-range forecasts for residential and nonresidential development, population, households and employment, which are considered by the Board of Supervisors and the county's planners on a regular basis.

Residential Development Forecasts

As of 2024, residential development in Loudoun County, which includes both owned and rental units, is estimated to have 150,656 housing units, reflecting a 6.0% increase, or 8,582 additional units, since 2020. The guidelines project an additional 35,952 residential units, 23.9%, will be built by 2050.

Nonresidential Development Forecasts

Nonresidential development in Loudoun County includes commercial, nonprofit and government buildings. Through 2050, nonresidential space is forecasted to add 45.9 million square feet to the county's estimated 135.4 million square feet currently in place, a projected increase of 33.9%.

Resulting Demographic Forecasts

Comparing forecasts for 2025 to those for 2050, population is expected to grow by 88,732 people, or 20%. Comparatively, the population growth between 2010 and 2020 was nearly 109,000 people, or 35%. Households and housing units are each expected to grow by approximately 22%, while employment is forecasted to increase by 25%, adding 56,144 jobs.

The FIC, an advisory group established in 1992 to support the Board in long-term planning, based the recommendations on county staff analysis of anticipated future growth. The FIC reviews assumptions about future growth and capital facility needs to provide recommendations for use in long-range planning. Specifically:

• Capital Facility Standards: The type, acreage and size of future capital facilities, along with "triggers" based on population, population within a given age group, or geographic factors.
• Capital Intensity Factors: The dollar amount of the capital facilities impacted by type of residential unit and geographic location that is calculated using county capital facility standards and demographic inputs. Capital Intensity Factors are used to assess the capital facilities impacts of new residential development and provide a guideline for proffer negotiations during residential rezonings.
• Capital Needs Assessment: The type and number of capital facilities needed over a ten-year planning period beginning at the end of the current six-year Capital Improvement Program (CIP). The FY 2029-2024 Capital Needs Assessment is online at loudoun.gov/CNA.
• Demographic, economic and financial data that is used for demographic forecasts and for fiscal impact modeling. More information about the county's demographics and data is online at loudoun.gov/demographics.

More Information

Detailed information about the Fiscal Impact Committee forecasts, including the complete guidelines, maybe found in the documents prepared for the December 3, 2024, Board of Supervisors meeting:

More information about the Fiscal Impact Committee, including a link to the updated guidelines, may be found at loudoun.gov/FiscalImpactCommittee.

# # #

Public link

Please use the above public link if you want to share this noodl on another website.