Analysis: An even less predictable presidential race provides uncertainty to the midstream industry

Presumptive Democratic nominee for president, Kamala Harris (left) and former president and Republican nominee Donald Trump (right).

Just three months before the election of the nation's 47th president, what seemed a likely GOP victory became less certain when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race and Vice President Kamala Harris became the presumptive nominee of the Democratic Party.

The change presents the midstream energy with more uncertainty in the months ahead. A Harris presidency would likely hold the line or go further on climate and environmental initiatives started during the Biden administration - possibly for two more terms in office. The vice president is from California, a state with some of the strictest environmental laws in the country. She indicated opposition to hydraulic fracturing during her first run for president in the 2020 Democratic primaries.

While former President Donald Trump had been polling ahead of Biden nationally, and neck-and-neck or slightly ahead of Biden in critical swing states, the switch to the much younger Harris roiled the polls.

An average of five polls conducted between July 22 and July 28 show Trump up by two points over Harris, according to Real Clear Politics. Two of the polls, Reuters/Ipsos and Morning Consult show Harris up by one point. The Harvard-Harris poll, however, shows Trump with a four-lead and a two-point advantage in the Wall Street Journal and Forbes/HarrisX polls.

More important are polls in seven swing states. The most recent check of likely voters conducted by Bloomberg/Morning Consult between July 24 and July 28 found Harris leading in five of the swing states.

After the Biden-Trump debate, polling in the swing states had Trump ahead of Biden by two points. Current polling shows Harris up by one over Trump in those states when results are combined.

Major events in the campaign for either party can influence the polls, especially as undecided voters settle on a candidate or switch from a third-party candidate. The Republicans already had the big moments of the Republican National Convention, the announcement of Senator J.D. Vance as vice presidential running mate and an assassination attempt in the swing state of Pennsylvania.

Harris still has to announce her pick for vice president, and the Democratic National Convention kicks off in Chicago Aug. 19.

In addition, Harris has challenged Trump to a debate, which could be another inflection point for the 2024 election.

Industries like the midstream that want a predictable and stable legislative and regulatory environment will have to wait until November. This race is too close to call, and will likely remain so until the votes are tabulated.

This analysis was provided by GPA Midstream Director of Government Affairs Andrew Mooney.

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