Global Climate Pledges: A Progress Report

In the last few years, coalitions of countries, businesses, governments and other actors have announced increasingly ambitious commitments to address the climate crisis. These have included plans to dramatically ramp up renewables, phase down fossil fuels, green the financial sector, halt deforestation, reform food systems and agriculture, and more. A number of new pledges are expected to be unveiled at the current climate summit in Baku, such as those under the COP29 Presidency's Action Agenda.

But are parties actually following through on their promises? Here, we track progress towards some of the world's biggest collective climate commitments:

Energy

What was promised?

As part of the 2023 Global Stocktake, which took place at COP28 in Dubai, countries collectively agreed to transition away from fossil fuels in energy systems, accelerate the phase-down of unabated coal power, and, by 2030, triple the world's renewable energy capacity and double global annual rates of energy efficiency improvement.

Also during COP28, Clean Energy Ministerial countries announced the launch of the Supercharging Battery Storage Initiative to enhance international cooperation, drive development and deployment of stationery battery storage, and reduce battery technology costs.

These promises built on previous commitments, such as 46 countries pledging to phase out unabated domestic coal and the Powering Past Coal Declaration, launched in 2017 to phase out existing unabated coal and place a moratorium on new coal without carbon capture and storage.

Where we stand

A recent IRENA report found that while renewable energy is the fastest-growing source of power capacity - gaining a record 473 gigawatts (GW) in 2023 - the world is at risk of missing its goal to triple renewables over the next seven years. Renewables capacity increased 14% in 2023; while unprecedented, this is lower than the 16.4% growth rate necessary for renewable energy to triple by 2030.

The IEA's 2024 Energy Efficiency Report affirmed for both 2023 and 2024 that efficiency rates remained at a mere 1% improvement per year. When the doubling energy efficiency goal was set, rates were estimated at 2%, so hitting the doubling goal requires an annual improvement of 4% globally.

Similarly, an October 2024 report from IRENA and the COP28 Presidency found that "across almost all metrics - excepting solar PV capacity growth - the world has fallen further behind" on goals to triple renewables and double energy efficiency. For instance, improvement in energy intensity in 2022 was around 2% - about half the rate needed by 2030 to meet the goal set at COP28.

Meanwhile, investments in energy storage are increasing rapidly, growing more than nine-fold between 2020 and 2024. The IEA finds these investments need to grow 25% each year, among other efforts to enhance storage capacity.

The latest UNEP Emissions Gap report also reveals that the shift towards renewable energy and electrification isn't happening fast enough. Per the report, "none of the major fossil fuel-producing countries or companies have committed to … fully transition away from fossil fuel extraction or production." According to IISD, the global oil and gas exploration licenses awarded by governments between late 2023 and late 2024 could lead to an estimated 2 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over the lifetime of the projects.

One bright spot came in October 2024 when the United Kingdom officially closed its last coal-fired power plant, marking the end of 142 years of coal-generated electricity in the country. However, in data through 2022, coal remains responsible for more than a third of electricity generation globally; progress needs to increase seven-fold to reach near zero by 2030 and align the power system with Paris Agreement goals.

Halting Forest Loss

What was promised?

The nexus of forests and climate has garnered significant attention over the last few years. At COP26 in 2021, more than 140 countries (representing over 85% of the world's forest) signed onto the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration on Forests, which commits to halt and reverse forest loss and land degradation by 2030.

In 2022, 196 nations agreed through the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on 23 targets for 2030, including restoring 30% of all degraded ecosystems and conserving 30% of land, water and seas.

Where we stand

Deforestation continues to get worse, with few signs of slowing. According to WRI's Global Forest Review, the rate of global forest loss today is higher than it was in 2021. The world needs to make a dramatic U-turn to achieve the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration goals by the end of the decade.

Meanwhile, the world has taken a few steps towards the 30% restoration and conservation targets, especially when it comes to finance. A year after the Glasgow Leaders' Declaration was made, 26 countries and the EU came together to form the Forest and Climate Leaders' Partnership (FCLP) to help deliver its commitments. In 2023, the FCLP announced nearly $250 million in finance from public, private and civil society partners to reach conservation and restoration goals, with calls to mobilize new financial commitments post-2025 to secure forest tenure rights.

Additionally, President Lula of Brazil proposed the Tropical Forest Finance Facility (TFFF), which would provide 80 countries with annual payments for restoring and conserving tropical forests. This was backed by five countries at the recent UN biodiversity summit (COP16) in October 2024. Also at COP16, governments launched the Kunming Biodiversity Fund with a $200 million contribution from China, and several countries put forth national nature finance plans.

Yet the gap between conservation today and what's needed to hit the 30% target remains wide: A recent progress report found that over 17% of the world's land area and a mere 8% of marine and coastal areas are currently protected. Countries must collectively protect another 16.7 million square kilometers of land (an area nearly the size of Russia) and over 78 million square kilometers of marine and coastal areas (more than twice the size of Africa) by 2030.

Greening the Financial Sector

What was promised?

In early 2021, the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero (GFANZ) formed to push the financial sector to reach net-zero emissions. More than 450 financial institutions representing $130 trillion in assets under management joined, with groups forming for insurance, asset owners, asset managers, banks and other financial sectors.

At COP26 in Glasgow in 2021, countries also agreed to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies, a commitment reiterated at COP28.

Where we stand

While financial institutions have made some progress in setting emissions-reduction targets, developing low-carbon transition plans and improving their climate disclosures they haven't lived up to their stated ambitions.

A WRI study examining two dozen top banks found that none of their "net-zero plans" would actually achieve net-zero emissions. Their pledges also haven't resulted in the massive increase in private finance needed to achieve net zero.

Additionally, increased political challenges to climate action, renewable energy and sustainable investing, particularly in the U.S., have pushed many financial actors to scale back their net-zero commitments or drop out of net-zero alliances.

In 2022, U.S.-based Vanguard - the world's second-largest asset manager - left GFANZ's Net-Zero Assets Managers initiative, which experts in sustainable finance attributed to political pressure. In 2023, several major insurers withdrew from the Net-Zero Insurance Alliance, reportedly due to antitrust concerns. And in 2024, the leader of the world's biggest asset manager, BlackRock, omitted ESG from his annual letter to shareholders.

Political concerns may also cause signatories to be more reluctant in demanding specific actions and tougher requirements, which significantly blunts GFANZ's ability to have financial institutions set and adhere to bold climate commitments. This is a worrying development, as government action is necessary to complement sustainable investing.

Meanwhile, pledges to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies have been frequently reiterated but never delivered. A WTO working group continues to meet, and G7 finance ministers brought their own commitment in line with the UNFCCC's definition of inefficiency. In December 2023, a coalition of dozens of countries formed to study their fossil fuel subsidies with the goal of getting rid of them. Nonetheless, countries generally continue to employ fossil fuel subsidies at scale; the EU, for example, spends more on such subsidies now than it did in 2015, when the bloc pledged to phase them out by 2025. Between 2020 and 2022, explicit fossil fuel subsidies more than doubled globally, reaching an all-time high of $1.3 trillion.

Transforming Food Systems

What was promised?

Food systems took center stage at COP28 in 2023, with a series of major announcements. Most significantly, 162 world leaders signed the COP28 UAE Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems, and Climate Action, committing countries to integrate food systems and agriculture into their national climate plans, or NDCs - among other national plans and strategies - by COP30 in November 2025.

Additionally, the Alliance of Champions for Food Systems Transformation (ACF) was launched, with five countries - Brazil, Cambodia, Norway, Rwanda and Sierra Leone - committing to act urgently and together to close the ambition and implementation gaps on food system reform. ACF members have pledged to take a whole-government approach and "go further and faster" by driving progress across 10 action areas in their national policies.

Where we stand

There have been encouraging signs of action in the food and land use sector in the past year, but much more is needed to turn promises into reality.

According to the Technical Cooperation Collaborative, around 40 countries are engaging in national policy work and initiatives in line with the COP28 Declaration. Nations such as Cambodia, Norway and Sierra Leone have taken steps to integrate the ACF's 10 priority action areas into their food and agriculture policies, with Sierra Leone securing $100 million in funding from the African Development Bank earlier this year to deliver "transformative and ambitious" action on food systems.

Meanwhile, there have been new investments made globally in improving livestock production, reducing food loss and waste, developing alternative proteins and more.

As of November 2024, over 300 entities have endorsed the Food Systems Call to Action, including farmer organizations, subnational governments and businesses. One hundred and fifty civil society and philanthropic organizations operating in all regions of the world, of which a third are headquartered in emerging and developing countries, have endorsed the Call to Action and are working to implement its recommendations.

Over the next 12 months, it's vital to strengthen national climate and biodiversity plans with integrated policies, boost investment in food systems and nature, and ensure full, effective participation of farmers, Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

Accelerating Urban Climate Action

What was promised?

COP28 was a major moment for cities and other subnational actors. At the first Local Climate Action Summit, 70 countries committed to incorporate urban climate action into their national climate commitments through the Coalition for High Ambition Multi-Level Partnerships (CHAMP) for Climate Action.

Where we stand

Momentum has continued to build since COP28, with Finland and the United Kingdom recently endorsing CHAMP. The COP29 Presidency has expressed its commitment to emphasize subnational engagement in Baku, most notably through the forthcoming COP29 Multisectoral Actions Pathways (MAP) Declaration for Resilient and Healthy Cities.

However, there is still a long way to go to unlock the full potential of subnational climate action. Analysis by UN Habitat concludes that only 27% of current NDCs contain strong urban initiatives. According to the Data-Driven EnviroLab, just 7% of G20 cities and regions have at least one target that aligns with the global goal to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees C (2.7 degrees F). Roughly 0% are failing to deliver emissions reductions at the pace required to achieve their own targets, let alone the 1.5 degree C goal.

As national governments develop their next round of NDCs in 2025, they should closely collaborate with subnational governments to boost ambition and implementation of climate action.

Shifting to Low-Carbon Transport

What was promised?

At COP26, more than 100 signatories (including countries, subnational governments and major businesses) agreed to advance efforts for all new cars and vans to be zero emissions globally by 2040. At COP27, 10 countries signed an agreement that they would sell only zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles by 2040. COP28 built on these commitments, with countries agreeing to accelerate the "reduction of emissions from road transport" through a variety of pathways, including infrastructure and zero- or low-emission vehicles.

Where we stand

Estimates show that to hold global temperature rise to 1.5 degrees C, electric car sales need to increase from 10% of sales in 2021 to over 85% by 2030, public buses from 4% to 60%, and two- and three-wheelers from nearly half of sales now to 85%. The good news is that sales for electric cars appear to be on track for the first time; however, the world remains off track in meeting goals for buses and freight vehicles.

Some countries have delivered policies and finance to back up their commitments. For example, the U.S. 2022 Inflation Reduction Act included several measures to promote electric vehicles, including consumer tax credits for new and used electric light duty and freight vehicles and tax incentives for battery manufacturing. In addition, the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law included funding to create a national EV charging network, while California and 12 other states have adopted regulations to require 100% zero-emission vehicle sales from 2035. There is some uncertainty on these national policies since the 2024 U.S. election, however.

On the other side of the Atlantic, The E.U. adopted ambitious goals for reducing emissions of medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, requiring a 45% reduction by 2030 and 65% reduction by 2035. In addition, 26 new signatories have signed on to the global agreement on medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in 2024. Still, much progress remains to be seen, particularly for low- and middle-income countries.

Lastly, while pledges have spurred vehicle electrification, meeting the wider goals of decarbonizing the transport sector remains challenging. A quantified emissions-reduction target for the entire transportation sector and explicit inclusion in the new NDCs would be instrumental for making progress.

Curbing Methane and Other Super Pollutants

What was promised?

Super pollutants such as methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black carbon, nitrous oxide and ground-level ozone are responsible for about half of the global temperature rise to date due to their short-term potency in warming the atmosphere. Methane, for example, has a global warming potential 80 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period. Removing these non-CO2 GHGs and particulate matter from the atmosphere could prevent up to 0.6 degrees C of global temperature rise by 2050, as well as millions of premature deaths each year.

Since 2021, 158 countries have signed on to the Global Methane Pledge to reduce methane emissions by 30% (compared to 2020 levels) by 2030.

Meanwhile, countries agreed through the Global Stocktake to accelerate their reductions of non-CO2 emissions in their next NDCs. In 2024, 70 countries committed to include economy-wide, 1.5-degrees C-aligned emissions-reduction targets for all GHGs in their NDCs, noting that action to reduce super pollutants is one of the fastest and cheapest ways to limit global warming.

Where we stand

Despite strong support for the Global Methane Pledge, methane emissions from the energy sector measured at near-record highs in 2023. The atmospheric concentration of nitrous oxide, the third-most significant human-caused greenhouse gas after methane and CO2, also continued to climb in 2023 - mostly due to the use of fertilizers and other agricultural practices.

More encouragingly, new grant funding totaling $1 billion for methane action has been pledged in the last year to support initiatives like the World Bank's Global Flaring and Methane Reduction Partnership, aimed at reducing methane leaks from oil and gas supply chains, and the Enteric Fermentation Accelerator for Livestock Methane Mitigation Research. Three methane satellite detection and notification initiatives also emerged - the International Methane Emissions Observatory, MethaneSAT and CarbonMapper - which use remote-sensing to bring greater transparency and accountability to methane-emitting industries.

During COP29 in Baku, the U.S., China and Azerbaijan are slated to host a second Summit on Methane and Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gases, where more announcements are expected.

Turning Pledges into Reality

In sum, while these varied pledges are strides towards addressing the climate crisis, efforts are largely off-track to fully deliver on them. WRI research shows that such global pledges and similar cooperative initiatives need to evolve from loose knowledge-sharing networks into platforms of true accountability and action.

With the COP29 Presidency set to launch a number of new pledges and initiatives, it is a reminder of the need to strengthen mechanisms that hold members accountable and ratchet up ambition to reflect the scale of the climate challenge. Transforming intentions into measurable, inclusive actions requires those involved to regularly prove their mettle by transparently and regularly demonstrating progress. In the global climate fight, we need coalitions to be credible forces for change.