Commercial Burglaries Fell in 2023, but Shoplifting Continued to Rise

Retail theft is at the center of criminal justice policy debates across the state. Recently released crime statistics for 2023 show continued growth in shoplifting statewide; reported incidents are 28% higher than in 2019. Commercial burglaries dropped by 9% in 2023 but remain about 6% above their pre-pandemic level. Our analysis shows that while most large counties saw increases in retail theft (both shoplifting and commercial burglary) from 2019 to 2023, more than 90% of the statewide rise occurred in just four counties: Alameda, Los Angeles, Sacramento, and San Mateo.

While several proposals have been considered in the state legislature to curb retail theft, proponents of Proposition 36 have cited concerns that Proposition 47 (2014)-which reclassified a number of drug and property offenses from felonies to misdemeanors-has contributed to the increases. With the aim of informing ongoing criminal justice policy discussions, we use California Department of Justice (CADOJ) 2023 statewide crime data to update our previous work on trends in retail theft in California. Given that under Prop 47, shoplifting is a specific crime category limited to theft incidents in which the value of the stolen merchandise does not exceed $950, we also examine commercial burglaries, which include higher-value incidents of retail theft in which the individual is charged with entering the premises with the intent to steal merchandise worth more than $950. These incidents can be treated as either misdemeanors or felonies (second-degree burglaries).

As with any data, there are limitations. Perhaps most importantly, retail theft data are limited to incidents reported to law enforcement agencies, and these incidents-especially low-value thefts-are likely underreported. Furthermore, agencies may vary in how they report and categorize an offense, and underreporting may change over time-possibly due to criminal justice responses to reported incidents and to media coverage.

Both shoplifting and commercial burglaries were higher in 2023 than they were before Prop 47 passed, with increases since the pandemic accounting for most of the rise. Shoplifting jumped in 2015 but decreased over the next several years, before falling dramatically (by 29%) in 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic. Shoplifting then jumped 29% in 2022 and surged another 39% in 2023; as a result, it was 28% higher-with about 24,000 more reported incidents-than in 2019, and at its highest observed level since 2000.

The 9% drop in commercial burglaries in 2023 countered the increase in shoplifting to some extent; however, commercial burglary was still roughly 6% above its 2019 level, with about 3,100 more reported incidents. Looking at shoplifting and commercial burglaries as a combined measure of retail theft, we see an increase of about 14% in 2023, 18% higher than 2019 and 11% higher than 2014.

A closer look across counties reveals important variations in retail theft trends. Between 2019 and 2023, retail theft (both shoplifting and commercial burglaries) increased in 11 of the state's 15 most populous counties but generally decreased in smaller counties. Most notably, retail theft increased by almost 70% in Sacramento, by 65% in Alameda, by 41% in San Mateo, and by 40% in Los Angeles. These four counties combined account for 91% of the statewide increase during this period-and Los Angeles alone accounts for about 55% of the increase in the number of retail theft incidents statewide. On the other hand, three large counties with some of the highest retail theft rates in the state saw decreases: San Bernardino (-14%), San Joaquin (-12%) and Kern (-6%).

In addition to the above-mentioned caveats about retail theft incident reporting, there are some question marks around CADOJ's latest crime numbers. An unusually large number of law enforcement agencies did not report crime numbers for part or the entire year. This group is mostly made up of very small agencies, which are unlikely to have a notable impact on statewide numbers, but it also includes some larger agencies, such as San Bernardino Sheriff's Department (which may account for the decrease in retail theft) and San Jose Police Department. Furthermore, while the 2023 violent crime numbers Oakland Police Department (OPD) reported to CADOJ have been found to be erroneously significantly overstated, our examination shows no indication of anomalies in OPD's reporting of retail theft.

Monthly retail theft numbers can provide insights and inform expectations about what 2024 data may reveal. The monthly numbers show commercial burglaries held steady at pre-pandemic levels during the last three quarters of 2023. Shoplifting, on the other hand, continued an upward trend that began in mid-2021.

Our key findings-that retail theft statewide increased from 2019 to 2023, was mostly limited to large counties, and was primarily driven by a few large counties-can inform criminal justice policy discussions, which have focused largely on concerns about the impact of Proposition 47. In addition, while existing research finds that Prop 47 contributed to increases in larceny and possibly a temporary jump in shoplifting in the first years after it was enacted, the most recent crime numbers show that retail theft declined between 2015 and 2019, increased during the pandemic, and continued to rise through 2023. It is also important to note that the recent increase in shoplifting is not unique to California. An analysis by the Council for Criminal Justice of crime data for the first half of 2024-covering 39 cities throughout the country-found that shoplifting jumped in 2024, and is now about 10% higher than 2019.

In its recent attempts to curb retail theft, the state has focused its efforts and resources primarily on organized retail theft; the continued upward trend in shoplifting from mid-2021 through 2023 suggests that more work is needed. To more effectively contend with the increased challenges retailers face, better and more comprehensive data are needed to pinpoint contributing factors that are especially prevalent in a few large counties.