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07/16/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 07/16/2024 19:45

How Does J. D. Vance Help—and Potentially Hurt—Trump

How Does J. D. Vance Help-and Potentially Hurt-Trump?

BU political scientists discuss what the Ohio senator brings to the ticket as Trump's pick for vice president

Republican presidential candidate former president Donald Trump and Republican vice presidential candidate Senator J. D. Vance (R-Ohio) on July 15, the first day of the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee. Photo via AP/Evan Vucci

Politics

How Does J. D. Vance Help-and Potentially Hurt-Trump?

BU political scientists discuss what the Ohio senator brings to the ticket as Trump's pick for vice president

July 16, 2024
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The assassination attempt on former president and Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump on Saturday was a stark reminder of how important the role of vice president can be-a heartbeat away from the presidency. In the lead-up to the start of the Republican National Convention on Monday, Trump repeatedly claimed that choosing someone qualified to take over as commander-in-chief was his top consideration.

Public opinion split when Trump announced late Monday afternoon that he had selected Senator J. D. Vance (R-Ohio), a 39-year-old former venture capitalist and best-selling author, as his running mate. Vance is considered by many to be even more right-leaning than Trump; he signaled support for a national 15-week abortion ban during his 2022 Senate run and said he wouldn't have certified the results of the 2020 election immediately if he had been vice president. Vance's 2016 memoir Hillbilly Elegy, later made into a Hollywood film, about his hardscrabble upbringing, has earned him a reputation as someone who can help solidify Trump's appeal among working class, rural white voters in middle America who helped Trump win the presidency in 2016.

But Vance has been notoriously tough on Trump in the past. In a 2016 interview, he described Trump as "cultural heroin," someone who offers easy solutions. By the start of his Senatorial campaign, however, he had adopted much of the former president's policies and as a senator, he has been a strong defender of Trumpism. In an interview Monday night with Fox News host Sean Hannity, he was pressed about his previous critical comments about Trump. Vance laughed, saying, "He was a great president and he changed my mind, because he delivered that peace and prosperity."

BU Today spoke to two BU political experts, Lauren Mattioli and Arjun Vishwanath, both College of Arts & Sciences assistant professors of political science, about what Vance brings to the ticket and the role he might play in what is expected to be an exceptionally tight presidential race.

This interview has been edited for clarity and brevity.

Q&A

with Lauren Mattioli and Arjun Vishwanath

BU Today:How would you describe Vance in terms of political leanings and ideology?

Lauren Mattioli: He's on the far right: conservative on social and cultural issues, authoritarian on institutional design, populist on economic questions. Not dissimilar to President Trump overall, but with different intellectual scaffolding for his views. He is new to elected office, having only been in the Senate since January of 2023. His voting record so far supports the idea that he is on the far right-more conservative than 91 percent of Senate Republicans-and has exhibited slightly lower party loyalty than his peers.

Arjun Vishwanath: J. D. Vance is not a typical Republican senator. The two things he's most famous for are his backstory, as described in his famous book Hillbilly Elegy, and that he went from a Trump critic in 2016 to an ardent supporter of Trump by the time he was running for Senate in 2022. This latter move may cause some to think of him as a MAGA candidate, but what's notable about him is he deviates from GOP orthodoxy on a number of policy fronts. A major policy issue of his has been rail safety after the 2023 crash in East Palestine, Ohio, and he's focused a lot on reducing insulin prices and limiting large corporate mergers. He cosponsored legislation with Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) to limit bank CEOs' compensation. So he's a part of the new populist wing of the GOP that combines what we might consider more "fiscally liberal" positions with strong anti-immigration rhetoric. Trump's choice of someone like Vance might signal interest in a different policy agenda than his first term, which was characterized most notably by the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.

BU Today:How does Vance help the ticket?

Mattioli: He's different from Trump on some key background characteristics: Midwestern, young, a lawyer, a senator, so in those ways he balances the ticket. Ohio is crucial for Republican presidential candidates to win in the general election. Perhaps Vance's ties to the state will bolster the Trump campaign's Ohio ground game. He has ties to extremely wealthy donors, which will be handy for campaign fundraising.

Vishwanath: Vance appeals most strongly to the MAGA and populist wings of the party. At the same time, I don't think he has the widespread appeal he had seven years ago when Hillbilly Elegy was read in every book club in the country. So I don't see him pulling in new voters in the way that some of the other potential VP nominees like Youngkin, Haley, or Scott might have. But he's a sharp surrogate for Trump's views who can defend the MAGA agenda in a more policy-oriented and sophisticated manner than Trump often does.

BU Today:What are his weaknesses and drawbacks?

Mattioli: Vance was once a very vocal, public critic of Donald Trump. He has since walked back from that position and is now a dogged supporter of the former president. That doesn't mean Vance's comments won't come back to bite him in the form of campaign messaging from Biden supporters. Certainly not a rare accusation to make of politicians, but Vance has been accused of compromising his own integrity to gain power. Trump himself noted how hard Vance worked to gain his approval.

Vishwanath: I don't think Vance is going to pull in many new voters who wouldn't have otherwise pulled the lever for Trump. Moreover, some of his past statements on social issues or immigration might turn off a segment of moderate voters-although his populist stances may also pull in a different type of "moderate" voter.

BU Today:How will Trump use Vance, both in the election and if he is elected?

Mattioli: Typically, I would say that VP picks function as high-level surrogates during the campaign. They can help the presidential nominee cover more ground with public appearances, they assist with fundraising, and they can add credibility to the ticket where the presidential nominee is perceived as lacking. Sometimes taking on a young running mate can help breathe new life into the campaign, as with John McCain's selection of Sarah Palin in 2008. I don't think that will be the case here, since Trump isn't lacking for enthusiasm from his supporters. Vance might function more like Paul Ryan did for the Romney campaign: a more pure manifestation of the campaign's chief ideological commitments.

Vishwanath: I think Trump will likely use Vance as a policy surrogate and a potential heir apparent. Trump doesn't deal too much in policy particulars, and so there's room for him to delegate that to Vance. Furthermore, this doesn't strike me as the type of pick he was talked into by advisors in the way that Pence was in 2016. That was much more of an attempt to balance the ticket by gaining evangelical voters. This seems more like Trump getting someone he wants to be on his ticket.

BU Today:In a contentious presidential race like this one, where the two presidential candidates are the oldest people ever to run for the office, the vice presidential candidates take on a potentially greater importance. These VP candidates will be viewed as the future of the Republican and the Democratic parties. Will Harris and Vance face a level of scrutiny that hasn't been placed on vice presidents in the past?

Mattioli: Pushing back on [the statement that] "these VP candidates will be viewed as the future of the Republican and the Democratic parties": I don't know if that's true. Sometimes VP candidates (successful or not) remain in public life, but it is not a straightforward path to independent political success.

The VP picks should be more heavily scrutinized this year, given the age of both presidential candidates. But I don't think that's going to happen. Vice President Harris has already been vetted over the course of her public career, presidential campaign, and time in the White House. She is a known quantity. Putting the spotlight on Vance would require taking it off of Trump, which is unlikely.

Vishwanath: I think there's already been so much scrutiny of these picks in recent decades that I'm not sure that will change. What will change is that the VP nominees will be viewed explicitly in terms of their ability to be president. Trump himself has said that that's a top criterion for him, and with Biden's age-related weaknesses, that's how Vice President Harris will be viewed too. I think this was a likely appeal of Vance to Trump-if he became president, he would attempt to continue Trump's legacy, whereas other potential VP choices like Nikki Haley would likely return to the pre-Trump GOP platform.

BU Today:Is there anything else you'd like to add?

Vishwanath: An important factor for a VP nominee is ability to fundraise, and Vance seems like one of the weaker candidates on this front (Ken Griffin and Rupert Murdoch attempted to block his nomination). Wealthy donors in the business world likely would have preferred someone like [Douglas] Burgum [Republican governor of North Dakota].

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