New England Economic Conditions through September 3, 2024

• Payroll employment in New England grew year-over-year by 1.2 percent in July 2024 and remained above its pre-pandemic employment benchmark, though the region did lose 1,300 jobs during the month.
• Over the past year-and since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic-employment has grown notably in educational and health services, but negative job growth in the supersectors reflecting information; manufacturing; and trade, transportation, and utilities has slowed overall employment growth in the region.

New England continued to exceed its pre-pandemic payroll employment benchmark in July 2024, though these employment gains were diminished by a loss of 1,300 jobs during the month (Exhibit 1). Employment growth from February 2020 to July 2024 remained markedly slower in the region (0.8 percent) than in the nation as a whole (4.2 percent). New England exhibited more robust employment growth over the past year, although this recent growth is still below the corresponding year-over-year growth rate in the United States (1.2 percent versus 1.6 percent) (Exhibit 2). Employment in each New England state has grown beyond pre-pandemic benchmarks, led by the rates in Maine and New Hampshire (3.0 percent and 2.6 percent above February 2020 levels, respectively). However, even the growth rates in those two states are below the corresponding national rate.¹

Employment growth in New England also varied across sectors. From the start of the pandemic through July 2024, the construction sector experienced the fastest job growth (6.9 percent), followed by professional and business services and educational and health services (5.2 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively) (Exhibit 3). By contrast, employment in the information sector remained 4.1 percent below its February 2020 level, reflecting the largest growth shortfall in the region. The leisure and hospitality (3.6 percent lower), manufacturing (2.9 percent lower), and trade, transportation, and utilities (0.6 percent lower) sectors similarly exhibited post-pandemic employment declines, mitigating overall employment growth in the region. In terms of year-over-year job growth, educational and health services exhibited the largest increase in the region (3.2 percent) in July 2024, while information; manufacturing; and trade, transportation, and utilities once again displayed negative employment growth (year-over-year declines of 3.6 percent, 1.3 percent, and 0.1 percent, respectively) (Exhibit 4).²

Preliminary Benchmark Revisions

On August 21, 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released a preliminary estimate of its annual benchmark revision to the payroll employment data. The preliminary estimate, available only for the United States, indicated that 818,000 fewer jobs were added in the nation over the 12-month period ending in March 2024.³ This estimate suggests employers added roughly 174,000 jobs per month, on average, during the noted one-year period. Given existing data that indicate approximately 242,000 jobs per month were added from April 2023 through March 2024 on average, the preliminary adjustment reflects a downward revision of 28 percent. Final benchmark revisions for all payroll survey data, for the country as a whole and for each US state, will not be available until early 2025. However, applying the same 28 percent downward revision to New England would suggest roughly 17,200 fewer jobs were added in the region over the 12-month period ending in March 2024. That calculation suggests New England employers added about 3,600 jobs per month from April 2023 through March 2024, on average, compared with existing data that indicate roughly 5,100 jobs per month, on average, were added during that period.⁴