Minority voters likely to determine presidential outcome

EXPERT Q&A

If history repeats previous elections' behaviors, race and ethnicity will be the critical determinant of how people vote this year, according to a University of Michigan expert.

The polls indicate a tight race between the two candidates in a hotly contested battle for the White House. History is likely to repeat: Many minority voters will lean Democrat while many whites will lean Republican, said Vincent Hutchings, professor of political science and of Afroamerican and African studies, and a researcher at the Center for Political Studies at the U-M Institute for Social Research.

What intrigues you about this election?

My background is in survey research, public opinions, elections, voting and race. I'm curious to see how different racial populations vote, not just Black Americans and Latinos, but also Asian Americans and white Americans.

How much of a majority is Trump going to get among whites? Is it going to be enough for him to win? Can Harris cut into that in some form or fashion? Is the gender gap likely to be especially large because of the Dobbs decision? These are the things I'll be looking for. So not just the outcome, but also how different constituencies based on race, religion, gender, etc. How did they vote in this election?

Give us a bird's eye view of this 2024 cycle.

In terms of predictions for this election cycle, it's obviously been very challenging for a lot of people because it is so close.

It's a very polarized electorate. This is frustrating for those who are politically attentive because they would like to be able to look at the polls and have a sense about who's going to win. It doesn't mean the polls are inaccurate or ineffective. It just means that there's a lot of imprecision with polling. And when the contest is this close, it's hard to know.

How will race impact voters' decisions?

There's also been a lot of discussion recently, particularly with respect to Black and Latino Americans. And in all likelihood, those communities, at least based on how they performed historically, are going to vote overwhelmingly for the Democratic ticket. That's especially true for African Americans, where we can expect somewhere north of 80%, probably north of 85% will be voting for Kamala Harris-not based on the polls alone, but also just based on history. Race is a critical determinant of how people vote, and it's likely to be a critical determinant in 2024.

We know, based on previous elections, that white Americans, at least a mild majority of them, tend to identify as Republicans and … vote accordingly. By all accounts, we would expect Donald Trump to get at least 55% to 60% of the white vote. And if that turns out to be the case, well, of course he will win the majority of them.

The reason it's a close contest is because there's so much lopsided support among racial minority groups for the Democrats. But if the election were only held among whites, Republicans would win every contest.

If Trump wins again, how will that change elections going forward?

I think that whether Trump wins or not, he's already had a lasting effect in the sense that candidates had the guardrails in American politics in terms of what was permissible and not permissible. It seems like that's no longer apparent or no longer represents a boundary. This, of course, would be especially true if Trump wins. That is to say, candidates can be more coarse. They can be more derogatory. They can be more insulting than we might have thought as recently as two or three election cycles ago.