Market Briefs | September 4, 2024

Mississippi River Levels
Mississippi River levels at Memphis have been steadily declining since mid-July, nearing the low water reference plane. This pattern has been recurring in recent years, with water levels usually falling below the reference plane by October. If this trend continues, as it has in the past, barges may be unable to load fully, forcing elevators to widen the basis to discourage deliveries. This would result in producers receiving even less for their crops than the current market price. You can find local grain bid prices on Arkansas Farm Bureau's website here.

Rice
Rice harvest is underway as farmers have 43% of the US crop and 39% of Arkansas' crop in the bins-well ahead of the usual pace. Harvest pressure is expected to keep a lid on prices for the next few weeks. The August USDA rice stocks report showed rough rice supplies in all positions of 32.4 million cwt., up 34% from a year ago. On farm stocks totaled 1.8 million cwt, with 30.6 million cwt held off the farm. 49% of those stocks were long-grain. Milled rice stocks in all positions totaled 4.84 million cwt, up 15% from a year ago. 3.71 million cwt were whole kernel rice. Export commitments have been somewhat disappointing, resulting in the increase in stocks. September futures are holding above previous resistance at $15 but have tough resistance just below $15.40. As the September contract nears expiration, traders will be rolling positions into November, which has resistance at $15 and $15.20.

Cotton
Cotton futures are having a tough time building upside momentum. December futures could be confirming a bottom at the recent low of 66.26 cents, but need to hold above 70 cents. The next target for bulls is the resistance at 73 cents. Deterioration in the crop has been somewhat supportive for prices, but the crop is still expected to be sizable. In fact, the condition ratings actually improved this week, with 44% now rated good to excellent. Export sales and shipments have been unremarkable in recent weeks despite a weaker dollar.

Corn
September corn is approaching its 50-day moving average, while December corn recently closed above this level for the first time since July. The recent price strength can be attributed to increasing U.S. export demand and dry weather across parts of the Midwest, which isn't ideal for crop maturation in some areas. As a result, some private crop estimators have lowered their corn production forecasts ahead of the USDA's September crop report, though projections still anticipate record-high yields. The latest crop progress report, released this week, shows little change, with 65% of the national crop rated good to excellent. Arkansas corn conditions are strong, with 77% rated good to excellent, on par with other top producing states. However, rising barge freight costs on the Mississippi River have made U.S. corn less competitive globally, although it remains slightly cheaper than Brazilian corn. If the market stays above the 50-day moving average through the week's close, it could trigger further short-covering. The next resistance levels for September and December corn are at the July highs of $4.09 and $4.26, respectively

Soybean
November soybeans, like corn, are edging closer to their 50-day moving average, which currently stands at $10.37 and serves as a resistance point until surpassed. This movement suggests that prices may be establishing a near-term bottom, driven by a recent uptick in export activity and speculator short-covering. China has purchased an additional 4.9 million bushels of soybeans this week, with rumors circulating of another six to nine cargoes being purchased soon. As expected, soybean conditions have declined by two percentage points to 65% rated good to excellent, while those rated poor to very poor have increased by one percentage point to 10%. In Arkansas, conditions remain relatively strong, with 73% of the crop rated good to excellent. Additional price support comes from Brazil, where the National Disaster Monitoring Center (Cemaden) reports that the country is experiencing its worst drought since 1981.

Livestock
Cattle futures rebounded a bit last week on ideas that the market was oversold. The monthly USDA Cattle on Feed report was mostly neutral. The total on feed inventory was up 1% from 2023, and placements were up 6%. Those totals were within expectations and provided some support for the rebound. October live cattle are now building support at the low of $173.72 and are challenging resistance at $180. Seasonal weakness in beef demand as summer ends could add additional pressure, but longer-term, cattle supplies are expected to tighten into 2025.

Hog futures continue to work higher after charting a double bottom in early July. The October contract has run into resistance near $83, and that has resulted in a more sideways trading pattern over the past few days. The August Cold Storge Report suggested strong demand with pork stocks down 7.1% from the previous month and 4.3% from the previous year.