Montana State volcano study to blend western science with Indigenous wisdom

BOZEMAN - Two Montana State University scientists have embarked on a study of an Alaskan volcano in hopes of better understanding the processes and timelines that led to its past eruptions.

Madison Myers, associate professor in the Department of Earth Sciences, and Anita Moore-Nall, assistant professor in the Department of Native American Studies, recently were awarded a $375,000 grant from the National Science Foundation to study Okmok volcano on Umnak Island in the Aleutian Islands.

Okmok erupts fairly frequently but with as little as four to five hours of warning. Because its eruptions aren't typically preceded by strong warning signals, such as earthquakes, a goal of the MSU study is to improve scientists' ability to forecast imminent volcanic events to reduce risks to humans and property. During the volcano's most recent eruption in 2008, the few people who lived nearby were forced to evacuate.

To learn more about what happened underground before Okmok erupted in 2008, 1991, 1878 and a caldera-forming event nearly 2,100 years ago, Myers will oversee the analysis of rocks produced by the volcano during those eruptions. In the first step, students in her advanced igneous petrology course this fall are analyzing olivine crystals from the 2008 eruption.

Those data, as well as analyses of rocks from the three other eruptions, are expected to reveal the depths at which Okmok's magma assembled, the processes that triggered unrest and ultimately how quickly magmas ascended each time. The researchers will look for correlations between those factors and the eruptive styles, volumes and volcanic explosivity index of each eruption, then try to determine whether any signs were missed that could be monitored to signal imminent, future eruptions.

Also under the grant, Moore-Nall, who holds a doctorate in earth sciences from MSU, is developing an advanced seminar course she will teach next fall on Indigenous ways of knowing in volcanic landscapes. Her partner on the project is Cheryl Cameron of the Alaska Volcano Observatory, a collaborator on the grant.

"Indigenous knowledge gives science credibility in many areas," said Moore-Nall, pointing out that traditional stories about geologic events have been handed down for millennia among tribes all over the world. "There are floods in stories and mentions of glacial lakes, but Western science didn't give these merit."

But that is beginning to change, as geologists continue to realize that stories told by Indigenous peoples all over the world are often rooted in actual events. In the 1980s, for example, American scientists attempting to determine the maximum earthquake magnitude that could occur off the Pacific Northwest coast began by focusing on local soils and rocks because the written record extended back only 200 years. As they unearthed physical evidence of a subduction earthquake and tsunami that had happened nearly 300 years prior, they and others began learning about stories told by Indigenous tribes in the region that were consistent with what was being found in the rock and soil record.

The narratives told by Native people living along the coast from Vancouver Island to northern California described shaking ground and flooding on a winter night that was almost certainly Jan. 26, 1700. That's when a giant earthquake that would have registered around magnitude 9.0 - among the largest ever recorded - occurred along the Cascadia subduction zone, where the Juan de Fuca tectonic plate has been slipping slowly beneath the North American plate for millennia. The quake caused 620 miles of the Pacific Northwest coastline between northern California and southern Vancouver Island to drop several feet and generated a tsunami that caused inland flooding. Another wave raced 5,000 miles across the Pacific and struck Japan, where it caught residents unaware because they felt no earthquake before the tsunami inundated their villages. The events in Japan were recorded in writing, but centuries would pass before the scientists working in the Pacific Northwest would piece together the oral narratives and physical evidence to solve the mystery.

The MSU researchers don't yet know whether specific traditional stories exist about Okmok's eruptions, though it is known that a village on Umnak Island was abandoned after the volcano erupted in 1817.

"This is a great example of why working communities that hold these stories would be important for understanding volcanic processes," Myers said. "Native Alaskans live in these areas and have ancestral stories that can inform on several aspects of the eruption."

But Moore-Nall predicts it will take a while for researchers outside Indigenous communities to demonstrate that they are willing to listen, understand and give stories credibility.

"From traditional stories in Alaska, there is a lot of opportunity to get geologic information, but you have to have time to develop these relationships," she said. "We need to be talking with the community and co-produce results."

To forge such relationships, twice-yearly exchanges between scientists at Alaska Volcano Observatory and MSU are planned while the work is ongoing. Moore-Nall, whose scientific interests run an interdisciplinary gamut, said she hopes the work will lead to greater incorporation of Indigenous knowledge in scientific practice.

Myers said gathering information about Okmok's geology from the western science perspective will establish a baseline of knowledge that, in addition to assessing whether geophysical signs were missed leading up to prior eruptions, may provide context for traditional stories the team discovers.

"Native people knew a 9.0 earthquake was possible in Cascadia well before western scientists - it's recorded in all the stories," Myers said. "We're hoping that this project will allow space for more people to get exposed to this understanding."