Ukama Ustawi: Developing potential futures to strengthen the resilience of maize-mixed systems in East and Southern Africa

Insights from the Regional Participatory Scenario Development Workshop for East and Southern Africa

The interactions between climate change risks, socio-economic growth, and agricultural development could dramatically influence food security, economic choices, and policy options. How we prepare and respond to these risks, trends, and needs, matters.

In East and Southern Africa, these issues are invariably linked with maize. Maize is a central part of the food culture, and an important contributor to income and employment in most of the region. But its production in East and Southern Africa is also vulnerable to climate change. This adds more pressure to meet the food needs of a growing population.

For the past three years, the 150 partners working on CGIAR's Regional Integrated Initiative for East and Southern Africa, Ukama Ustawi, have collaborated to deliver science that transforms the agrifood system through diversification and sustainable intensification of the maize-mixed system in the backdrop of climate change.

But have our efforts really moved the dial? This question drives our continuous reflection and adaptation. What is the future state of our agrifood system in East and Southern Africa that we want to see? Will our actions today contribute to realizing this future state or will they lead us on a different trajectory?

To achieve an equitable transformation towards a diversified agricultural landscape, our strategies must consider the current and projected dynamics within agrifood systems. Agricultural output in ESA is often characterized by low productivity. With exceptions in South Africa and Ethiopia, maize yields across the region are among the lowest in the world. Production is further weighed by high post-harvest losses, high incidences of pests and disease, and inadequate access to markets. These are important constraints that limit the ability to meet rising demand, and boost resilience in the face of climate risks.

Ukama Ustawi aims to enhance productivity, nutrition, and livelihoods by building climate resilience and mitigating risks through diversified maize-mixed systems. With rising climate challenges and population growth, planning for food security in ESA is crucial. Our strategies must be backed by rigorous evidence that reflects both present and future contexts. By focusing on these comprehensive and forward-thinking approaches, we can drive impactful change and secure a better future for the region, ensuring that our actions today truly contribute to the sustainable and resilient agrifood system we envision.

It is evident that ESA needs a comprehensive strategy for equitable benefits from agricultural transformation, involving governments, the private sector, civil society organizations, consumers, agricultural producers, and food processors. This strategy should leverage an inclusive and progressive enabling environment for tangible growth outcomes. But how can we ensure that our collective efforts effectively contribute to transformation in agrifood systems across countries and regions? Will the current interventions change the future of food security for the better?

By continuously evaluating our impact and adapting our strategies based on solid evidence and evolving dynamics, we can ensure that our efforts today pave the way for a resilient, sustainable, and equitable agrifood system in East and Southern Africa. Join us as we explore these critical questions and the path forward for Ukama Ustawi.

To assess the effectiveness of collective efforts in transforming agrifood systems and identify an informed strategy, the International Water Management Institute (IWMI), the Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) supported by Ukama Ustawi, organized a two-day regional participatory scenario development workshop, in Pretoria, South Africa. This workshop aimed to identify drivers of trends in agrifood systems, with a focus on maize-mixed systems. Participants included future and system thinkers from a range of organizations, including farmer associations, banks, government, financial institutions, NGOs and development partners.

Image: Dr. Noah Zimba the Team Leader of Climate Change Alliance Zambia, setting the scene by contextualizing what is currently observed within the region with respect to maize production. Credit: Xoli M photography

Key recommendations from the participatory scenario workshop emphasized the need for technological advancements to enhance adaptive capacity in the regional agricultural sector and reinforce research and development. These advancements include the introduction of new climate-resilient seed varieties, mechanization, irrigation practices, and improving farmer capacity for better market positioning. Equally important is strengthening policy and regulation to create a supportive enabling environment, encouraging collaboration from both industry and regional experts. Key factors identified include stricter import controls on seeds and fertilizer ensuring that imported seeds are locally adapted to preserve biodiversity, boosting local seed systems and sustainable practices strengthening farmer associations, and increasing the ratio of extension services staff to farmers through improved access to information and stronger farmer-extension relationships. Additionally, accelerating innovation adoption, implementing supportive regulatory frameworks with stricter enforcement such as seed sector reforms that mandate stricter variety registration and the implementation of policies that secure land tenure or use rights for smallholders, and revising policies to reflect current agricultural realities is crucial. Providing localized climate information and early warning systems, improving risk assessment for farmers to access affordable credit facilities, and promoting environmental sustainability are essential components that need to be integrated into future scenarios.

Images (Left to right): Dr. Greenwell Matchaya (IWMI) presenting on data implications for food systems and potential agricultural futures, Sherwin Gabriel (IFPRI) presenting on regional climate change realities on maize-mixed systems, and Dr. Inga Jacobs-Mata (IWMI) presenting on the existing efforts through regional initiatives such as Ukama-Ustawi and other CGIAR initiatives. Credit: Xoli M photographyImage: Break-out group discussion on the prescribed questions linked to the outline of the State of Region Report. Credit: Xoli M photography

The insights from the workshop are an important step in being able to model future scenarios. These scenarios compare what the food system could look like in the future, and to what extent investments and interventions today could support positive outcomes and mitigate risks.

The impacts on maize production, prices, and trade are of interest. As maize is a staple food in most countries in the region, higher maize prices could place additional burdens on consumers.

The analysis also looks to identify opportunities for diversification, given trends in climatic and socio-economic conditions. Participants indicated that consumer preferences, political support, and farming tradition are often entrenched in maize systems. This makes it more challenging to promote agricultural diversification.

Insights from the participatory scenario development workshop are to be integrated with climate impact modeling for the "State-of-the-Region Report." This comprehensive study leverages historical climate data, including temperature, rainfall patterns, and extreme weather events, and advanced modeling techniques to project the future of maize production and trade in East and Southern Africa. By analyzing the interplay of climate projections with maize growth models, the State of Region report will offer valuable insights into potential impacts on yields, production, and trade dynamics.

Specifically, IFPRI will lead the compilation of pixel-level maize yield changes for 5 climate models under CMIP6 for at least the high and medium emissions scenario for up to 2050. At the country level, taking into consideration the growth of technology and changes in global supply and demand, country-level estimates for area, yield, production, and net trade changes, for the high emissions scenario (and hopefully for the medium scenario) will also be developed.

The resulting "State-of-the-Region Report," to be released later in the year, will therefore outline the strategy for agricultural transformation in East and Southern Africa. It will present the status of agricultural diversification and developed scenarios, drawing evidence from climate, trade models, and scenario planning. Through these efforts, the State of the Region Report aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the present agrifood landscape and how these contribute to realizing an envisaged future that we want to see by identifying barriers and enablers to value chain development.

The participants at the regional workshop included:

• Land and Agricultural Development Bank of SA (LandBank)
• Coordinating Assembly of NGOs (CANGO)
• Eastern African Community (EAC)
• International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
• Food, Agriculture and Natural Resources Policy Analysis Network (FANRPAN)
• United Nations Food Agriculture Organization (FAO)
• Subregional Office for Southern Africa (SFS)
• National Agricultural Marketing Council (NAMC)
• International Water Management Institute (IWMI)
• African Union Development Agency: New Partnerships for Africa's Development (AUDA-NEPAD)
• Eastern Africa Farmers Federation (EAFF)

Featured image: Regional experts from East and Southern Africa (ESA) at the participatory scenario development workshop held in Pretoria, South Africa, from June 13 to 14, 2024. Credit: Xoli M photography

Authors:

• Mahlatse Nkosi, Research Officer - Inclusive Agricultural Finance at International Water management Institute (IWMI)
• Inga Jacobs-Mata, Ukama Ustawi Initiative Lead, and Director of Water, Growth, and Inclusion at IWMI
• Greenwell Matchaya, Senior Researcher - Economics-ReSAKSS Coordinator and Deputy Country Representative for South Africa at IWMI
• Sherwin Gabriel, Scientist - Foresight and Policy Modeling at IFPRI
• Tim Thomas, Senior Research Fellow - Foresight and Policy Modeling at IFPRI

Watch the Regional Participatory Scenario Development Workshop for East and Southern Africa video:

Related publication:

Climate change and agriculture in eastern and southern Africa: An updated assessment based on the latest global climate models

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