Consumer Price Index (CPI) For July 2024 Is Projected to Rise 3.0% (Y/Y)

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index (CPI) for the month of July 2024 is 3.0%.

If 3.0% is the actual year-over-year increase in the CPI, it will match the number from the previous month.

Last month (June 2024), the consumer price index increased by 3.0% (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted), compared to the median estimate of 3.1%. Over the past 12 months, the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the increase in the CPI has surpassed the median estimate 50% of the time, matched the median estimate 17% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time.

The median estimate of 3.0% is based on 17 estimates collected by FactSet. These CPI estimates range from a low of 2.90% to a high of 3.10%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 32 bps and smaller than the 5-year (60 month) average spread between the low and high estimate 50 bps.

The median estimate (year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted) for the consumer price index excluding food & energy (Core CPI) is 3.2%.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the CPI and Core CPI numbers for July tomorrow (August 14).

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