ISPI - Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale

07/25/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 07/25/2024 05:11

Yemen: Why Israel’s Attack Hurt the Houthis More Than U.S. Strikes

Israel's unprecedented airstrike on the Hodeida port in Yemen, in retaliation to the drone attack against Tel Aviv, brings - at the same time - political opportunities and economic damagesto the Houthis. Nonetheless, if Israel were to conduct a series of strikes against Houthi-held areas, using the same tactics as in Hodeida, the prolonged economic losses for the Houthis would likely outweigh any immediate political gains.

Political effects

Israel's airstrike against the Hodeida port will to further galvanise the Houthis, as has already occurred with the US-UK raids against Houthis' military sites since January 2024. For the first time, the Saada-born armed movement was directly targeted by Israel in Yemen: for a group whose slogan is "Death to America, Death to Israel", such an event has a huge political and symbolic meaning. The Houthis will try to politically capitalise on the Israeli airstrike as much as possible. They will stress nationalist and anti-imperialist discourses against external "aggression" to push popular mobilisation and recruitment, and to consolidate the key regional role they have acquired since the Red Sea attacks against shipping began in late 2023.

Economic and strategic implications

However, the economic and strategic implications of the Israeli raid in Hodeida are not going to be an easy ride for the Houthis. This airstrike looks very different from previous American ones: Israel targeted the Houthis' main port infrastructure to inflict significant economic damage to the armed movement. While the US and the UK used to strike military sites in Houthi-held areas of Yemen (ex. weapons storage facilities, radar sites, missile launchers, command and control sites), stating to protect the "free flow of commerce", Israel has bombed an infrastructure facility which is dual use, serving also civilian purposes.

Yemen imports 90% of its food needs, with the humanitarian aid mainly entering through the Hodeida port. This is the main reason why the US has avoided airstrikes against the port so far, even though the Houthis use the area, its neighbourhood and its islands also as a linchpin to perform maritime and aerial attacks. First assessments show that Israel would have destroyed five cranes, a power plant and several oil storage tankers, reducing the port's fuel storage capacity from 150.000 to 50.000 tonnes.

The Iranian weapons issue

After the airstrike, Israel declared that the Hodeida port is the entry point used by Iran to smuggle weapons to the Houthis, thus adopting this argument to justify its choice. Nevertheless, Hodeida and its neighbourhood aren't decisive when it comes to the delivery of Iranian arms to the Houthis: according to a 2024 report from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime "there is little evidence that weapons were smuggled through the Red Sea to the Houthis between 2015 and 2022".

Since 2015, the Saudi-led Coalition has enforced an embargo in Yemen, comprising a naval blockade of the Houthi-held Western coast, although restrictions on goods imported through Red Sea ports have been suspended since 2023 due to the truce in Yemen (2022). Furthermore, the United Nations Verification and Inspection Mechanism (UNVIM) established in 2016 at the request of the Yemeni internationally recognised government, is tasked to verify that commercial vessels arriving at Hodeida don't carry weapons and munitions. This complies with UN Security Council Resolution 2216 (2015) which approved the arms embargo against the Houthi leadership (then extended to the whole group in 2022). Since the national truce was agreed upon, the UNVIM continues the inspections but has to deal with more vessels, including containers.

These factors explain why the Hodeida port isn't likely to be the main entrance door for Iranian weapons to Yemen. According to the Final Report of the UN Panel of Experts on Yemen 2021, there are two main routes carrying Iranian weapons to Yemen's Houthis. The first one, mainly used to smuggle missile and drone components through dhows, is the porous land border between Oman and Yemen, or directly the Yemeni ports in Mahra (close to the Omani frontier) and Hadhramaut governorates, in the Arabian Sea. The second route, primarily used for small arms and light weapons, entails transhipment at sea off the coast of Somalia to Yemeni ports in the Arabian Sea.

Why Hodeida? Weakening Houthis' Strategic and Economic Assets

Therefore, striking the Hodeida port means first of all trying to weaken the Houthis' strategic and economic assets, in order to degrade both the offensive capabilities and the financial lifeline of the armed movement. Port revenues significantly contribute to financing the Houthis' war effort, and their "government".

The Houthis signed the UN-brokered Stockholm Agreement in 2018, which prevented an Emirati-led ground offensive to regain the port city. The ceasefire in Hodeida and neighboring ports, Ras Isa and Al-Salif, has largely held so far. However, the Houthis have never redeployed from the city they still control and didn't renounce port incomes. Revenues from the Hodeida port would account for more than 40% of Yemen's customs income.

Furthermore, the loosening of the Saudi fuel embargo on Houthi-held territories due to the 2022 truce has increased incomes for the Hodeida port, with the Houthis receiving now "significant customs revenue" from the fuel sector. Also, the Houthis are diverting goods imported from Aden, controlled by the rival Southern Transitional Council (part of the internationally recognised institutions), to Hodeida, to further cut the government's finances. Specifically, the armed movement warned traders that no goods shipped through Aden port would be allowed to enter the Houthi-controlled north-west. According to the UN, the Houthis earned about 4 million dollars from maritime services in the first half of 2023, an amount expected to rise.

For these reasons, striking the Hodeida port has mainly to deal with economic and strategic goals. And adds a new, powerful dynamic to the Yemeni scenario, hurting the core of Houthis' interests more than previous American attacks.