Towards a Green and Resilient Thailand

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Key Findings

Thailand's Bio-Circular-Green (BCG) model, launched in 2021, laid the foundation for a sustainable, low-carbon economy. However, with rising climate threats-including sea level rise, extreme weather, and biodiversity loss-a more ambitious approach is needed. The BCG+ model, introduced by the World Bank in this report, aims to strengthen Thailand's green agenda by employing advanced modeling to anticipate and mitigate economic impacts.

Rising risks for Thailand's agriculture and fishing sectors

• Thailand's agriculture and fishing sectors are particularly susceptible to climate change, a vulnerability heightened by the country's substantial local fishing and shrimp farming industries.
• Agriculture could experience production losses ranging from $2.9 billion to $5.4 billion, while up to $26.2 billion of fishing production value is at risk. Heat stress will severely impact ocean ecosystems, leading to significant fishing losses across all climate scenarios. This susceptibility is critical as many low-income households rely on these sectors for their livelihoods

Escalating costs and productivity losses in Thailand's labor sectors by 2050

• Climate change is already reducing productivity in outdoor labor sectors such as agriculture and construction, with potential productivity losses doubling by 2050.
• Indoor labor productivity, supported by air conditioning, will face less of an impact, but the cost of installing and maintaining cooling systems could reach $11 billion to $17 billion annually by 2050.

Combatting resource depletion for a greener future and economic resilience

• The depletion of natural resources, along with environmental degradation, further exacerbate the climate change challenges faced by Thailand.
• Thailand's forest cover has already declined by 12% since 2000, and continued deforestation could lead to substantial ecological and economic losses.
• Without action, Thailand might face up to $553 billion in GDP losses by 2050.
• Strategic policies could reduce these losses by 68% and potentially enhance cumulative wealth by $54 billion through reforestation and afforestation initiatives.

Rising tides, sinking profits: The economic toll of sea level rise on Thailand's future

• Climate change could significantly affect Thailand's economy, especially through increased flood damage and sea-level rise.
• The economic impact of a major flood in 2030 could decrease GDP by up to four percentage points. While the total loss of land due to coastal erosion is estimated at two square kilometers per year, with a value equal to .04 percent of GDP. Cities and economic activities in coastal areas are especially vulnerable to coastal erosion.
• Costs related to coastal erosion and sea-level rise are projected to increase by approximately $6 billion over time.

Recommendations

Addressing these risks will require comprehensive climate adaptation and mitigation strategies along with strong public-private partnerships.

• Building resilience: Thailand's path to combat flooding and climate impacts. Thailand should prioritize planning and preparing for climate impacts like flooding such as implementing early warning systems, improving access to essential services for lower-income households, investing in climate-resilient infrastructure, and enforcing land use policies. Measures such as sustainable land use and green infrastructure can reduce flood damage and other climate risks, potentially lowering the GDP impact of major floods in 2030 by four percentage points. Overall adaptation expenses could be at least 1.6 percent of GDP.
• Towards carbon neutrality: Thailand's path to emission reduction and boosting renewable energy. Thailand faces challenges in reducing its carbon footprint and achieving carbon neutrality by 2050 amid rapid urbanization and fossil fuel reliance. Key strategies include comprehensive policies, renewable energy investments, and clean technologies. Transitioning to renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and promoting electric vehicles are essential. Carbon pricing and electric vehicle adoption will help reduce emissions. Success requires strong policies, collaboration between government and industry, and public awareness.
• Embracing a circular economy. Transitioning to this model reduces plastic consumption, promotes recycling, and minimizes waste, particularly for addressing plastic waste in the Chao Phraya River. A successful transition to a circular economy by 2030 could lead to a 1.0 percent increase in GDP and the creation of 160,000 jobs.