Compressing the IPv6 Deployment Timeline

If your organization has started planning for the implementation of IPv6 then they have likely already considered what their strategy will be and determined their appropriate IPv6 deployment timeline. Maybe your organization hasn't yet started their IPv6 deployment, or perhaps they are starting on it this coming year. Alternatively, your organization may have purposefully delayed initiation of an IPv6 initiative or has even considered forgoing IPv6 altogether. Let's consider these very different strategies and their impacts.

Start Now = Right Answer

The most recommended approach is to start sooner to give yourself more runway. An enterprise may not need IPv6 fully deployed right away. But if it is going to require many years to implement, then starting now is prudent. For example, U.S. Federal departments and agencies realized it could take them many years to deploy IPv6 so they needed to start way back in 2010 (2010 OMB IPv6 mandate).

It is common to start with some IPv6 training, along with an IPv6 address allocation plan, to develop a high-level strategy (business case), and start to assemble an IPv6 planning and architecture team to determine how long it will take the organization to deploy IPv6. The IETF RFC "Enterprise IPv6 Deployment Guidelines" (RFC 7381) suggests starting with the "Preparation and Assessment Phase", developing your plan, then the "External Phase" deploying IPv6 at the Internet edge, then working inward during the "Internal Phase". Also, an organization doesn't have to assume the burden of transitioning the entire IT environment to IPv6 at once. It is often recommended to break up the larger project into smaller, more easily manageable sub-projects using an agile approach to focus initially on those environments that benefit the most from IPv6's unique characteristics.

Imagine if an enterprise started their IPv6 journey in 2025 anticipating it would take three years to get dual-stack IPv6 configured across their environment. We know the current IPv6 Internet usage and can attempt to predict where it will be three years from today. From looking at Google's IPv6 Statistics graph, and considering mathematical forecasts, IPv6 usage is growing 5% per year. Therefore, from Google's perspective, the global Internet will be at about 50% IPv6 utilization by the end of this year. Overall, global IPv6 Internet usage could be 65% by 2028. Furthermore, IPv6 usage is already at 70% in some countries like India, France, Germany. So, by 2028, IPv6 usage could be closer to 85% in some regions of the world. That puts IPv4 traffic volumes in the minority from this point forward.

In contrast, if an organization had started their IPv6 deployment back in 2018, it would have taken a decade to reach the same 2028 milestone.

Different enterprises are more (or less) aggressive about deploying IPv6 and they appear at different points along the IPv6 Adoption Curve. Those organizations deploying IPv6 a decade ago would have been considered in the "early adopters" or "early majority" categories. Even if an organization prides itself on being a "technology leader," but only begins today aiming to get IPv6 fully deployed by 2028, that would actually put them in the "technology laggard" category.

Delay Tactics = Delaying the Inevitable

Some enterprise organizations may be stuck in the "wait and see" phase of IPv6 planning. These organizations continue to see IPv6 adoption increasing around the world but are still waiting before they seriously consider adopting it themselves. By delaying their IPv6 projects, they are intentionally shortening the runway and compressing the timeline. The danger is that these organizations may not be able to deploy IPv6 at a leisurely pace at some point in the future. For example, there may be a flow-down requirement for IPv6 connectivity from a customer/partner/affiliate as part of a contract that forces urgent IPv6 deployment.

This can be likened to playing a "game of chicken" with a slow oncoming train that is only traveling at 5 km/h. IPv6 adoption has been slow but steady over the past twenty years. These organizations know they'll need to address the situation at some point, but the dawdling pace of the train makes them feel confident that they can delay their response and still get out of its way in time. These organizations that intentionally delay their IPv6 implementations run the risk of waiting until it's too late and they must sprint to avoid the train. They may feel confident that even if they wait until the last minute, then, if necessary, they could just throw extra human resources at the project to get it done quickly. As some say, "nine women can't make one baby in one month."

Over time, operations of IPv4 becomes increasingly burdensome with the overlapping address space and an increased use of NAT. This can be likened to the analogy of the frog in a pot of slowly boiling water. The frog doesn't notice that the water is getting warmer at first. Most enterprise IT organizations continue to tolerate the issues related to IPv4, not noticing how much time they spend dealing with CIDR prefix fragmentation, re-addressing subnets, the lack of end-to-end routing, and other NAT-related burdens. It is only when the organization tries to quantify these hidden costs that they realize that IPv4 is becoming a significant operational and financial burden. These re-addressing projects also suck the will to live out of the IT department. The ongoing maintenance of IPv4 will continue as the IPv6 project gets underway, adding to operational costs.

All enterprise IT teams have competing priorities and multiple responsibilities which prevent them from dropping everything just to solely work on IPv6 deployment full-time for six months straight. IT teams always have their normal daily tasks to perform. There hasn't been any period in history, now, or in the foreseeable future where IT teams have been, or will be, "idle." IT teams already have various projects to perform (e.g., cloud migration, data center consolidation, IPv4 re-addressing, SD-WAN implementation, Zero-Trust Network Architecture, Wi-Fi 6/6E upgrades, etc.) This is true today, and it will be true over the next decade; only the technologies will vary. Few enterprise organizations can dedicate even 20% of their staff's time to a single project like IPv6 implementation. Enterprises can't forsake all other IT initiatives for IPv6. IPv6 deployment must be performed in parallel or in conjunction with other projects. Alternatively, IT departments could simply weave IPv6 into any new deployment project.

If an organization had ten years with which to migrate to IPv6, then it probably could only consume a few hours per week of the IT team's time. However, if an organization compresses their schedule, then the IPv6 initiative could consume a day or two per week of every person's time.

Failure to Launch != Right Answer

Some people, when encountering a new technology (like IPv6) for the first time, tend to avoid embracing it because they fear the unknown. People may be initially resistant to the new idea or try to dismiss the topic by uttering the phrase "It'll never happen."

There are those who are still in denial about the inevitability of IPv6 and claim that it is not being used and will never be used. A quick search on the Internet turns up many webpages showing how to disable IPv6 on various operating systems. Searching social media channels discussing IPv6 topics reveals many who argue against IPv6 and suggest that IPv6 is still not being deployed anywhere in the world. Ironically, they likely used their IPv6-enabled mobile phone to create that post.

Maybe these luddites intend to retire before they have to address IPv6 (pun intended). However, if a person has ten or more years before they reach retirement age, then IPv6 is an inevitability, and they will need to learn it.

By this point, everyone in all IT shops has heard of IPv6 at some point in the past twenty years. No one can claim that IPv6 is brand-new and isn't ready for full wide-scale production deployment. In fact, organizations that intentionally avoid IPv6 and fail to start planning for the inevitable could be considered negligent. There can be serious legal and financial penalties for organizations who are negligent and experience technology failures that could potentially negatively affect the company's stock price impacting shareholder value. CEOs and boards of directors are often held accountable for these leadership failures; perhaps it is time that the failures in those decisions start impacting IT teams more directly.

Summary

If an organization has already started on IPv6, then they have already taken the important first step. These organizations can determine the correct pace of the IPv6 project and accelerate as necessary. They can prepare to take advantage of lulls in their IT project schedule to get ahead. Some organizations have slower times during the winter months or right after the first of the new year. Organizations are encouraged to plan to make a concerted effort to get the IPv6 initiative well underway in early 2025.

If an organization hasn't made any progress on an IPv6 initiative, then the standard recommendation is to start working on it immediately. Remember, you don't need to complete your IPv6 deployment right way, but it behooves your organization to start right away to give your organization the most runway possible for a successful takeoff.

If an organization is intentionally delaying the start to their IPv6 journey, then they are taking a risk and further compressing their IPv6 deployment schedule. If an organization is against using IPv6, then they should realize this is a dangerous choice that could have costly consequences in the approaching years.

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