09/06/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/06/2024 10:30
Helping lenders serve homebuyers and homeowners with affordable mortgages
Financing for quality, affordable rental housing in every market, every day
Reducing risk and enhancing housing finance liquidity
All Resources to Manage Financial Uncertainty
All Resources for Recovering from a Disaster
Recovery Assistance for Homeowners
Recovery Assistance for Renters
Key Takeaways:
The August labor report was close to consensus and our expectations. Job growth over the past several months is close to our estimate of what is necessary to keep pace with population growth. Additionally, the tick down in the unemployment rate helps assuage fears that labor market conditions have weakened substantially. We believe the Fed remains on track to cut rates in September, a view supported by current market pricing.
While both the ISM manufacturing and services indices were roughly flat in August, the underlying details suggest that activity is continuing to slow. The new orders component of the manufacturing index, in particular, implies that future manufacturing activity will soften further in coming months. When combined with the services index that is barely in expansionary territory, we believe these readings are consistent with our forecast for slower growth in coming quarters. Additionally, the trade data suggests that net exports will again drag on GDP growth in the third quarter. While robust base effects stemming from upward revisions to estimates of second quarter consumption will likely keep GDP growth strong in the third quarter, we see most incoming data as being consistent with economic growth slowing.
Nathaniel Drake
Economic and Strategic Research Group
September 6, 2024
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.