10/18/2024 | News release | Distributed by Public on 10/18/2024 08:10
The following information is valid on Friday 18thOctober 2024 and until further update
OVERVIEW
Storm Ashley has been named by Met Éireann, becoming the first storm of the 2024/2025 season.
Storm Ashley is a low-pressure system currently developing in the western North Atlantic,on the southern side of the Jet Stream. It is expected to travel quickly eastwards over the Atlantic this weekend, crossing to the northern side of the Jet Stream, becoming positioned in the left exit region (a developmental area of the Jet) which will cause it to undergo rapid deepening later on Saturday.
Fig 1- ECMWF 00z Run Friday 18th Oct showing atmospheric pressure (black lines) overlayed with the Jet Stream (purple colour), showing how the jet stream will deepen Ashley over the weekend into a storm depression and steer it to the northwest of Ireland and the UK (see Sunday slide below)
The system will become a storm depression as it swings up to the west and northwest of Ireland on Saturday night and Sunday.
Fig 2- ECMWF 00z Run Friday 18th Oct showing atmospheric pressure (black lines) overlaid with the Jet Stream (purple colour), showing Storm Ashley in on the northern part of the jet stream, impactingIreland and the UK on Sunday.
Met Éireann's meteorologist Liz Walsh, says:
"Storm Ashley will bring strong southerly winds overnight on Saturday night and early Sunday with a second wave of even stronger south-westerly winds, accompanied by damaging gusts across the country, from mid-morning on Sunday, right though the afternoon and into the evening in some parts."
She continues:
"We are currently in a period of exceptionally high spring tides, and this, tied in withthe strong winds and high waves, will substantially increase the risk of coastal flooding, especially along Atlantic coasts".
At this time, MetÉireann has issuedan OrangeWind Warning forsome western counties and a Yellow Wind Warning for Ireland, for Sunday, but the warnings are likely to be updated as more information from our high-resolution models comes in and is analysed by our meteorologists(latest warnings here).
KEY INFORMATION - SUMMARY OF IMPACTS
The potential impacts of Storm Ashley are:
NOTE THAT:
The warnings are likely to be updated. Please keep in touch with Met Éireann's social media channels, www.met.ieand the Met Éireann app to stay up to date with the forecast and any warnings' updates.
The timing and location of extreme weather occurrences can significantly affect their impact. It's important to note that in any individual weather event, not every location within a warning area may experience the same degree of weather or impacts.
When severe weather is expected, weather and impacts at lower levels are also likely to be experienced. The type and level of impacts can be strongly affected by previous weather conditions. When issuing a warning, Met Éireann takes into consideration the forecasted conditions and thresholds, as well as previous weather conditions that may increase the level of impact expected for particular areas.
HOW TO STAY SAFE IN EXTREME WEATHER
WHY AND HOW ARE STORMS NAMED?
Storms are named when they could cause 'medium' or 'high' impacts in one of the three partner countries. This enables consistent, authoritative messaging to the public and other stakeholders to help them to prepare for and stay safe during potentially severe weather events.
Since 2015, Met Éireann and the UK Met Office have been working together on the naming programme and were joined by the Netherlands' KNMI in 2019, to form the 'western group' of European weather services.
When a storm is forecast, the national weather service that expects the biggest impact from the severe weather to hit its region, or is likely to be first affected by it, names the storm. Storm naming happens in conjunction with orange/red weather warnings, which could be for wind, rain or snow, or a combination of these conditions. Those warnings are, in turn, issued based on a combination of numerical thresholds and the potential impacts foreseen.
HOW ARE STORM NAMES CHOSEN?
Met Éireann, the UK Met Office and KNMI publish a new list of storm names for each Storm Season, which commences on 1st September.
This 2024/25 season, each of the three meteorological services contributed seven names to the season's list. Met Éireann's contributions to this year's list were taken from more than 500 suggestions by primary school children participating in ESB Science Blast last February.
The full 2024/25 list is Ashley, Bert, Conall, Darragh, Éowyn, Floris, Gerben, Hugo, Izzy, James, Kayleigh, Lewis, Mavis, Naoise, Otje, Poppy, Rafi, Sayuri, Tilly, Vivienne, Wren, with Met Éireann contributing the names for C, D, H, I, N, P and V (names chosen by Met Éireann in bold).
(Note - letters Q, U, X, Y, Z are not included, in line with the US National Hurricane Centre naming convention.)
PAST STORM SEASONS OVERVIEW
For more information on storm names and past storms, see Storm Centreand Major Weather Events