What can the next U.S. president do to de escalate the Israel Gaza war

Brandeis Stories

What can the next U.S. president do to de-escalate the Israel-Gaza war?

In the run-up to the presidential election, Brandeis Stories asked university faculty to provide expert analysis and insight into how the candidates might address pressing issues facing the country.

By Gary Samore
October 17, 2024

Unfortunately, there is very little the next U.S. presidential administration can do to bring about a ceasefire and prevent further escalation in the Middle East, as long as the combatants in the region are determined to keep fighting each other. Neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu nor Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar are willing to make the compromises necessary for a hostage deal to end the Israel-Hamas war. Both leaders want to continue the war, despite the immense casualties and damage in Gaza. The Houthis in Yemen will continue to attack shipping in the Red Sea and periodically fire missiles at Israel as long as the Gaza conflict continues, despite U.S. and Israeli attacks against Houthi forces and infrastructure.

Israel and Hezbollah are now engaged in a major conflict, as Israeli forces invade southern Lebanon and bomb targets inside Lebanon while Hezbollah resists the Israeli invasion and fires missiles against Israeli cities. Neither side seems willing to accept a ceasefire at this time. After Iran's ballistic missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1, Israel is likely to retaliate against targets inside Iran. Depending on the severity of Israel's retaliation, lran may attack Israel again, causing Israel to respond - locking both sides in a cycle of tit-for-tat escalation.

In these circumstances, the incoming U.S. President - whether Donald Trump or Kamala Harris - will not be able to impose a ceasefire. U.S. threats to cut off arms supplies to Israel are not credible unless the other parties to the conflict - Iran and its axis of resistance - are willing to accept a political settlement, which is currently not the case. At some point, however, the parties to the various conflicts will likely exhaust themselves and look for a way out. This will create opportunities for the U.S. - along with its allies in the region and internationally - to craft proposals for a ceasefire and pathways toward political settlement.

Gary Samoreis Crown Family Director and Professor of the Practice of Politics.