Six takeaways from the shakeup in the 2024 presidential race

By Amelia Heymann

President Joe Biden's recent decision to step down as the Democratic nominee in the 2024 election, with Vice President Kamala Harris now set to replace him, has reshaped the presidential race.

VCU News connected with several professors from Virginia Commonwealth University's Department of Political Science to get their perspective on the new developments.

Redefining the narrative

Professor Bill Newmann, Ph.D., said Biden stepping aside is, overall, a good move for the Democratic Party. Compared with past presidents, Biden has made far fewer public appearances, which makes it difficult to promote his policies and achievements, and "that makes it nearly impossible to run a campaign."

"Presidents, and especially candidates, need to be selling their agenda and selling themselves," Newmann said. "No one really likes it, except maybe Trump, but it's a necessity."

If Biden's staff has kept his public and media appearances limited because of his age, this further allows Biden's opponents to control the narrative and define him in unflattering ways.

"In deciding not to run, and handing the baton to Harris, Biden gave Democrats a huge boost of energy and a candidate who is up to the task of being everywhere, all the time," Newmann said. "That's especially true when going up against Trump, who is more experienced as a salesman and runs his campaigns like a circus."

Alexandra Reckendorf, Ph.D., associate professor and associate chair of political science, added that when Biden dropped out and endorsed Harris, Democrats saw their single biggest day for online donations this election cycle, collecting more than $80 million. She noted that the avalanche came after donors had withdrawn support for Biden, with polls showing that most Democratic voters preferred his departure from the race instead of "a long slog with him at the top of the ticket."

Down-ticket contests also could be affected. Amanda Wintersieck, Ph.D., associate professor and director of the Institute for Democracy, Pluralism and Community Empowerment, said Biden dropping out has substantially improved Democrats' prospects for winning on several fronts.

"I think that this is particularly important when we think about down-ballot races and how many down-ticket Democrats were being negatively impacted in the polls by having Joe Biden at the top of the ticket," she said.

Pressure that didn't abate

Associate professor John M. Aughenbaugh, Ph.D., acknowledged some surprise at Biden's decision, in light of his campaign's insistence that he would remain in the race. But he said there was too much momentum against him.

"Too many prominent, elected Democrats questioning him continuing; wealthy donors indicating they might stop giving money for the upcoming general election phase of the campaign … and polls that increasingly indicated that Biden's path to a victory in November was becoming impossible to navigate" collectively became insurmountable obstacles, Aughenbaugh said.

Loss of incumbency benefit

Aughenbaugh noted that only two other presidents have not run for re-election in the past 72 years.

"And those two pulled out early enough to allow the Democratic Party to go through a somewhat normal primary election process," he said.

Reckendorf said that when Biden was nominated for his first term, his age made the party wonder if it would prevent him from seeking a second term. This would remove the party's incumbency advantage for 2024.

"This potential advantage is one of the main reasons why the Democratic Party did not seek out alternate candidates during the 2024 primary season," she said. "Yet they now face the task of running a new candidate with roughly 100 days to go, and far fewer than that before voters start visiting the polls during early voting hours or before they begin mailing in their ballots."

But Reckendorf noted that in many other countries, campaign seasons begin and end in far less time.

"There is certainly time for them to nominate a new presidential and vice presidential ticket, get them on the ballot in each state and run a formidable campaign against Donald Trump and the Republican Party in Congress," she said.

Benefit of quick unity

Aughenbaugh said while the Democratic Party could go into its national convention in August without a clear candidate and choose one there, the quick emergence of Harris could result in donors "reopen[ing] their metaphorical checkbooks" and the convention becoming a moment of confirmation and unity.

"This process is what the party leadership probably prefers, even if to date Harris has been only slightly better than Biden in the polls against Trump," he said.

Newmann added that the absence of other Democrats making a strong bid for the nomination could be one of the overall campaign's most significant developments.

"Uniting the party behind Harris may be the key, and so far Democrats have done that quickly," he said.

VP role a double-edged sword

Reckendorf said Harris, as the current vice president, will have both advantages and vulnerabilities as successor to Biden. One benefit is name recognition.

"In 2020, over 80 million Americans were comfortable enough with the idea of a President Harris, even if hypothetical, to vote for a ticket with her name on it," Reckendorf said.

At the same time, many voters don't follow politics so closely to know who Harris really is.

"Her character, her values, her priorities - she will need to reintroduce herself to voters and to do so in a way that positions her as the leader of the party, not as a trusted companion to Joe Biden," Reckendorf said.

Harris also could have difficulty taking credit for Biden administration accomplishments while also having difficulty avoiding blame for any unpopular policies.

"In that sense, being a successor is a bit of a double-edged sword," Reckendorf said.

Finding a running mate

Wintersieck said Harris' selection of a vice presidential partner, which could come within days, has to account for a number of factors.

"In particular, she needs someone on the ticket that can help her secure a battleground state that the Democrats need in order to win this election," Wintersieck said. "She'll also want to consider the ability of her running mate to raise money, campaign effectively and, finally, fill any major policy gaps that Harris has in her repertoire."

Newmann thinks the most likely pick is Sen. Mark Kelly of Arizona, a military veteran who has won in a swing state. And he noted that Harris is likely to select a man as her running mate because "most people think that two women on the ticket would be too innovative or provocative."

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