Consumers’ support for trade and immigration declines, small change on higher taxes for wealthy

[Link]Joanne Hsu

American consumers view the economic impact of both trade and immigration more critically now than in 2020, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers.

The share of consumers voicing support for increased trade fell from 68% in 2020 to 54% in 2024. Unlike four years ago, when a majority of consumers across every socioeconomic group believed increased trade would benefit the economy, views this year exhibit strong gradients by income, education and stock wealth, said Joanne Hsu, director of the surveys.

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Consumers with less education, income and wealth hold much more negative views of trade than other consumers. Partisan gaps in opinions on trade are relatively modest: 69% of Democrats believe more trade benefits the economy, while 46% of Republicans agree, with Independents in the middle at 55%.

Surveys this year since May have asked consumers whether the economic policies debated by the presidential candidates would benefit or harm prospects for future growth in the overall economy.

The questions, which were also asked prior to the 2020 and 2016 presidential elections, focused on three economic policies-trade, immigration and taxing the wealthy to reduce income inequality. Consumers were asked questions about their perceptions of the economic consequences of the policies, with no reference to other possible factors voters might consider.

Shifting views on immigration

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Views on immigration's impact on the economy changed sharply after each of the past two presidential election years. In 2020, consumers viewed immigration more positively for the economy than in 2016, moving away from the immigration policies favored by Donald Trump, Hsu said.

Now, in 2024, opinions have shifted against immigration, with substantial drops in support for immigration across all sociodemographic groups. Republicans exhibited the strongest decline: In 2020, 47% reported that less immigration was better for the economy; in 2024, the share surged to 84%.

Even Democrats reported substantially more negative views on immigration this year relative to 2020, with a 48% minority viewing more immigration as better for the economy, compared with 62% four years ago. Still, their views are far more positive on immigration than Republicans, Hsu said.

"This year, some groups had relatively balanced views on the economic impact of immigration, meaning that they were not skewed in favor nor against immigration," she said. "These groups included younger consumers, higher-income consumers and those with college degrees. With the exception of Democrats, all other groups reported net negative views of immigration."

Views on higher taxes for wealthy remain steady

Consumers' opinions on the implications of raising taxes on the wealthy are little changed from both 2020 and 2016. This year, a 47% plurality of consumers believe that raising taxes on the wealthy would benefit the economy, while 25% believe the economy would be harmed. Strong partisan gaps remain and are similar in magnitude to 2020.

"While Independents are, as usual, squarely between members of the two parties, they are less supportive of higher taxes on the wealthy than they were in 2020," Hsu said.

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