A Look Ahead: What We Know about the 2025/26 Crop

Although the 2024 harvest season has recently concluded in the Northern Hemisphere, winter crop planting and decision-making for the 2025 planting season are already shaping market expectations. As discussed in a Nov. 5 "Market Summary" report to U.S. Wheat Associates (USW) directors dry conditions and other adverse weather have already created concerns around winter wheat planting. Likewise, the media and markets continue to follow weather closely. With the current market situation in mind, the following provides an overview of available information and current projections for U.S. wheat production in 2025/26.

Baseline Planted Area Forecasts

The USDA Agricultural Projections to 2034, released on Nov. 7, provided the first glimpse at the 2025/26 crop area. These estimates come early in the season as a baseline to build on as more information becomes available. The projections put 2025/26 U.S. wheat acres at 46.0 million acres, about even with last year. Planting conditions have been dry throughout the Southern Plains and producer prices remain low. The combined impact of low prices and less ideal conditions does not incentivize acreage expansion; however, low prices for corn and soybeans have also decreased the likelihood of profit driven acreage expansion. As a result, the USDA projections suggest farmers would plant a total of 223 million acres of wheat, corn, and soybeans, which is 900,000 acres less than last year and 600,000 acres below the five-year average.

Conditions to Date

On Oct. 28, USDA released its first winter wheat crop conditions report, rating 38% of the crop in good or excellent condition, the second lowest rating in records dating back to 1986, driven by a hot and dry planting season. Although this rating appears alarming, it is important to note that early season conditions do not correlate highly with final yields (see chart below). Moreover, recent showers in the U.S. Southern Plains are already helping improve winter wheat conditions. From Oct. 27 to Nov. 9, moisture was registered across the Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest. In the last 14 days, growing areas in the major HRW producing state of Kansas, received anywhere from 2 to 8 inches (5 to 20 cm) of rain.

Recent rains in the U.S. Southern Plains will boost crop conditions, promoting emergence and root establishment before dormancy. The Plains from Texas to North Dakota and from Colorado into the Midwest received rain from Oct. 27 to Nov. 9. Source: USDA Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin.

Just days after the soaking rains, the Nov. 12 USDA crop conditions report put 44% of the crop in the good to excellent categories, up from 41% last week, but slightly below 47% last year.

Early season conditions do not strongly correlate with final yields. Since 1987, U.S. winter wheat has shown a steady upward yield trend, regardless of the pre-dormancy crop condition rating.

Despite the recent forecasts and data, it is far too early to make definitive judgements about the 2025 crop. With a long growing season ahead, early conditions do not correlate highly with yields, especially if timely rains continue throughout the fall and spring. Likewise, spring wheat planting is months away and many farmers are still contemplating their spring planting decisions.

Stay tuned for updates throughout the growing season, and as always, your local USW representative is here to help with market information, updates, and trade service.

By USW Market Analyst Tyllor Ledford.