The Hoover Institution on Confronting and Competing with China | August 2024

This edition of the Hoover Institution Briefing on Confronting and Competing with China tackles the threat the People's Republic of China (PRC) poses to Taiwan and explores how an invasion, quarantine, or blockade action would require deep and multifaceted support from the United States. The briefing also includes analysis concerning the PRC development of a parallel system of international organizations and frameworks aimed at replacing the current US-led systems. Finally, the briefing touches on recent events held at Hoover, where discussion centered on the decline of personal freedom in Hong Kong and the challenges facing Taiwan's newly elected president.

FEATURED ANALYSIS

The Boiling Moat Launches Bicoastally with Strong Interest from Readers

Distinguished visiting fellow Matt Pottinger brought together many of the contributors to his new book from the Hoover Institution Press, The Boiling Moat: Urgent Steps to Defend Taiwan, for a launch event on the Stanford campus on May 30. They spoke about urgent steps needed to deter the PRC from launching a blockade or invasion of Taiwan. Pottinger said that the United States and its allies and partners should more concertedly plan, train, equip, and coordinate for a crisis over Taiwan. The next twenty-four months will be crucial to deepening the allied "offset" of the PRC's growing military juggernaut and deterring a Taiwan war through the end of this decade.

The book's contributors told the audience about the steps the Taiwanese defense staff need to take to reform and reinvigorate the island's armed forces. The contributors also spoke about the impact any hot war or blockade of Taiwan would have on the US economy. The book further deals with the trade and economic fallout of a conflict and what major US allies such as Australia, Japan, and NATO members could do to help Taiwan in the case of a crisis.

In early June, Pottinger brought the Boiling Moat to Washington, speaking with policymakers and hosting a talk on Capitol Hill with Hoover colleagues and Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-AK). Pottinger also met with the media, diplomats at the State Department, members of Congress, and other policy and thought leaders to share the book's findings. On Sunday, June 2, Pottinger discussed The Boiling Moat on CBS's Face the Nation.

At the time of this newsletter's release, the Hoover Institution Press is preparing a second reprint of the book, citing strong demand. You can order a copy of it here.

Elizabeth Economy on China's Alternative Order

Returning to Hoover from leave as a senior advisor on China policy to the secretary of commerce, senior fellow Elizabeth Economy wrote an essay in Foreign Affairs magazine about PRC efforts to develop an umbrella of organizations that could provide an alternative to global leadership in international institutions by the West. She cites four pillar efforts by the PRC-the Belt and Road Initiative, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative-but points out each has faced stumbles along the way. She says many of the failings can be blamed on the PRC's "wolf warrior" diplomacy style, where its aggressive stances placate internal constituencies, including Xi Jinping, but turn off partners elsewhere in the world. Also, Economy cites polling data from Africa and Latin America that find while leaders on both continents are open to trade with the PRC, they view PRC leadership in the world as unfavorably as they do the United States

In the essay titled "China's Alternative Order," Economy argues that while the PRC has seen mixed results from its efforts to wield its influence, America should not dismiss them or rest on its laurels. It needs to offer more support to the Global South, not leave ambassadorship posts unfilled for months or years as it has been doing, and challenge the PRC's efforts by being more open and inclusive with international organizations in which it plays a large role. Otherwise, it risks being outcompeted.

Glenn Tiffert Leads Hoover's Role in National Science Foundation Research Security Center

On July 24, the US National Science Foundation (NSF) announced a five-year, $67 million investment establishing Safeguarding the Entire Community in the US Research Ecosystem (SECURE) as mandated in the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022. Research security is a concern because some foreign entities attempt to unethically-or even unlawfully-access and use US research.

Distinguished research fellow Glenn Tiffert will lead a team of Hoover geopolitical analysts, data engineers, programmers, and risk modelers who will apply leading-edge qualitative and data science methodologies to provide SECURE with expertise on sensitive research, threat types, and the evolving environment for international collaboration. Hoover will partner with nine other US institutions to constitute SECURE.

Hoover is world-renowned for its scholarship and policy reports on safeguarding the security and integrity of academic, corporate, and government research. Under the guidance of Tiffert, Hoover has produced touchstone publications in the field, including Global Engagement: Rethinking Risk in the Research Enterprise (2020) and Eyes Wide Open: Ethical Risks in Research Collaboration with China (2021). Tiffert has also worked closely on research security with stakeholders in government, industry, and academia across the United States and nearly two dozen partner nations.

Learn more here.

On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis

In June, Hoover fellow Eyck Freymann and Cambridge University's Hugo Bromley published On Day One: An Economic Contingency Plan for a Taiwan Crisis, the latest in the occasional paper series from China's Global Sharp Power Project. In the paper, Freymann and Bromley outline a response plan for US policymakers to a blockade, invasion, or bloodless takeover of Taiwan by the People's Republic of China. Instead of recommending "hard decoupling," where the United States opts to break all or most trade and financial ties abruptly, they recommend that the US and its partners and allies prepare a plan to trigger "avalanche decoupling," whereby they would gradually replace PRC imports of all goods, reshore or nearshore producers of vital items, and greatly diminish reliance on PRC manufacturing. This option cushions the GDP impact on America and its allied states and spreads it out over time, giving consumers, firms, and other entities sufficient time to adjust.
On Thursday, July 25, Freymann, Bromley, and members of Hoover's China's Global Sharp Power Project launched the report in Washington, DC, after meeting with members of Congress, diplomats, and government agents tasked with organizing America's response to any future aggression against Taiwan by the PRC.
You can read about their Washington, DC, activities here.

Watch the discussion marking the launch of the publication here.

HIGHLIGHTS

How the PRC's National Security Law Quashed Civil Society in Hong Kong

On May 14, China's Global Sharp Power Project brought together activists and experts to speak on the declining state of freedom in Hong Kong since the 1997 handover, with a particular focus on the PRC's National Security Law effectively quashing civil society in the city. Panelist Sebastien Lai, son of imprisoned freedom activist and newspaper publisher Jimmy Lai, spoke about his father's efforts, his subsequent imprisonment, and his chance of release. As of now, the PRC holds more than 1,800 people as political prisoners in Hong Kong.
You can read more about the event here.

Experts Gather at Hoover to Assess Future of Taiwan as it Welcomes New President

The Hoover Institution's Taiwan in the Indo-Pacific Region program hosted the Taiwan After the 2024 Elections Conference on May 23‒24 to explore the policy implications of the island nation inaugurating a new president, Lai Ching Te, who faces a myriad of domestic and external challenges.
Led by research fellow Kharis Templeman, the two-day meeting saw experts discuss political dynamics of the island nation; its demographics, economic challenges, and globally influential semiconductor industry; and how it can resist PRC manipulation. Presenters also discussed the steps Taiwan needs to take to deter a possible PRC invasion and what can be done to strengthen the US-Taiwan relationship.
You can read more about the conference here.

Hoover Marks 35th Anniversary of Tiananmen Square Massacre with Panel Discussion

On June 4, 1989, PLA soldiers and police rode tanks and used live fire against pro-democracy demonstrators camped in Beijing's Tiananmen Square, killing several thousand of them. To commemorate this occasion, Rowena He, a historian of social movements in China, and Perry Link, the biographer of Nobel Peace Prize winner Liu Xiaobo, joined Hoover's William L. Clayton Senior Fellow Larry Diamond exactly 35 years later to reflect on the history and impact of June 4, 1989, and the broader struggle for freedom and democracy in greater China.

Fellow Spotlight: Matt Pottinger

Matt Pottinger is a distinguished visiting fellow at the Hoover Institution. Pottinger served the White House for four years in senior roles on the National Security Council staff, including as deputy national security advisor from 2019 to 2021. In that role, he coordinated the full spectrum of national security policy. He previously served as senior director for Asia, where he led the administration's work on the Indo-Pacific region, particularly its shift on China policy. Before his White House service, Pottinger spent the late 1990s and early 2000s in the PRC as a reporter for Reuters and the Wall Street Journal. He then fought in Iraq and Afghanistan as a US Marine during three combat deployments between 2007 and 2010.

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