Will the Next Congress Vote to Remove China’s Normalized Trade Status

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson (R-La.) arrives for a news conference on the results of the 2024 election outside of the U.S. Capitol Building on Nov. 12. Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images

In related developments, several of President-elect Donald Trump's reported cabinet picks have a history of calling for tougher policy on China.

Will 2025 officially mark the beginning of a new era for U.S.-China trade?

Multiple news reports indicate that House Republicans are preparing to introduce legislation in the next Congress to revoke China's Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR) status, first granted to the country in 2000 as part of a misguided strategy to open China's market and eventually guide it to democratize (spoiler: the strategy failed).

According to Punchbowl News, House Ways and Means Committee Chair Jason Smith (R-Mo.) and China Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) Chair John Mooelnaar (R-Mich.) "have been working on separate but parallel efforts" to remove China's PNTR status. Both also have been in touch with Robert Lighthizer, who served as U.S. Trade Representative during President-elect Donald Trump's first term and is rumored to be making a return to the second Trump administration.

Here's Punchbowl with more:

This new legislation would move early in the next Congress, according to sources familiar with the proposals. Republicans believe they can pick up Democratic support.

The House GOP efforts are centered on stripping China of its PNTR designation or forcing Congress to renew it every few years.

The Alliance for American Manufacturing is strongly in support of revoking China's normalized trade status. When our President Scott Paul recommended doing so when he testified before the Select Committee on the CCP in 2023, noting that the "CCP doesn't deserve the same trade status as allies such as Taiwan, Norway, or the United Kingdom."

Indeed, granting China PNTR ultimately gave the CCP legitimacy it didn't deserve and encouraged many of its bad practices. Nearly 25 years after the passage of PNTR, China is only becoming more authoritarian, with a government that cracked down on democracy in Hong Kong, is continuing to oversee a cultural genocide of the Uyghur people, and is stirring up tensions over Taiwan.

China's economy also remains state-run; Western brands operating in China face increased hostility and are beginning to exit the country. China continues to break trade rules in an attempt to dominate global markets, including via tactics like state-owned enterprises, massive government subsidies, intellectual property theft, currency cheating, and lax labor and environmental standards.

Meanwhile, PNTR was an absolute disaster for American workers and manufacturers, leading to the China Shock that saw millions of lost jobs and ultimately the loss of U.S. production capabilities in several vital sectors.

No wonder, then, that there is increasing support for removing China's favored trade status. Should they move ahead with legislation, Republicans are likely to get at least a few Democrats to join the effort, as similar legislation has attracted bipartisan backing in previous Congressional sessions.

President-elect Donald Trump and his team, meanwhile, are also likely to support the move. The official 2024 Republican Party Platform advocated for policy to "secure strategic independence from China," including by revoking PNTR. It's also worth pointing out that as a senator, Vice President-elect J.D. Vance sponsored the China Trade Relations Act, which would return China to its pre-PNTR trade status.

Trump's reported cabinet picks also suggest his administration will move toward a tougher stance with China. Rep. Mike Waltz (R-Fla.), reported to be Trump's choice for National Security Advisor, is a member of the House's China Task Force and is being dubbed a "China Hawk" by many media outlets. Waltz also has advocated for strengthening American production capabilities, including by securing the critical mineral supply chain. He's also sponsored legislation to strengthen American shipbuilding and counter China's dominance of the sector.

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), said to be Trump's nominee for Secretary of State, has long called for a number of policy approaches designed to counter China. In fact, back in 2020 he even joined a webinar we hosted that examined the importance of strengthening American production capabilities and growing the supply chain in which he pressed a tougher stance with the CCP.

"We don't have any quarrel with the Chinese people. They're the No. 1 victims in the world of the Chinese Communist Party. Our problem is the Chinese Communist Party, and through their government, is undertaking an effort to dominate the world in key sectors that are going to be critical to the 21st century, and our policies are letting them do it," Rubio said. "They're taking advantage of what we have allowed them to do, and we've got to bring equilibrium back to that relationship."

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