Hurricanes, Trust, and the Role of Aid: Lessons from Mexico City’s 2017 Earthquake

Hurricanes Helene and Milton barreled into the southeast of the United States in late September and early October eviscerating towns, destroying homes, and killing scores of people in a challenge for both emergency responders and the ability of political institutions to maintain the trust of their citizens.

Research has shown that natural disasters often shake the foundations of political trust, which is crucial for effective governance, particularly during crises. In the aftermath of such disasters, citizens look to their government for leadership, support, and recovery assistance. If this support is lacking or poorly managed, it can lead to a sharp decline in political trust, exacerbating the already challenging path to recovery. But when the government response is swift and coordinated and people see that the government backs them up, political trust can survive intact or even rise.

A recent study, conducted with colleagues and published by the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB), explored this phenomenon in the wake of the 2017 earthquake in Mexico City. The magnitude 7.1 earthquake that struck the city on September 19, 2017, killed 369 people, injured thousands, and caused widespread damage. While the immediate focus was on rescue efforts and rebuilding, we wanted to understand how the disaster affected citizens' trust in their political institutions and what role, if any, aid played in mitigating any loss of faith.

Political Trust in Times of Crisis

Political trust-the confidence citizens have in their government's ability to act with competence and integrity-is a crucial element of a functioning democracy. Disasters can put this trust to the test. In our study, we found that the earthquake led to an 11% drop in general political trust among Mexico City residents, a worrisome decline given that when trust in government is low, people are less likely to support public policies, particularly those aimed at long-term welfare and disaster preparedness.

One of the central questions we sought to answer was whether the distribution of aid could help restore political trust after such a disaster. Our findings suggest that it can indeed play a crucial role, but only under certain conditions. For example, residents who lived near aid distribution centers in Mexico City reported higher levels of trust than those who lacked easy access to them. Simply knowing that the government was providing aid in a nearby, visible, and accessible way seemed to offer some reassurance to affected communities.

The Distribution of Aid

But that is no guarantee. While proximity to aid can restore trust for some, the distribution process must be perceived as fair and efficient. In situations where aid is mismanaged or where corruption is suspected, trust can erode even further - a particularly relevant dynamic in countries or regions with weaker institutions or inadequate government responses.

As hurricanes and other natural disasters continue to threaten communities across the U.S., the lessons from Mexico City's earthquake bear consideration: The way aid is distributed in the aftermath of a disaster has profound implications not just for immediate recovery, but for the long-term political health of a community, with crucial factors at work:

1. Speed and Transparency Matter: Governments need to act swiftly and transparently in their disaster relief efforts. The quicker and more visible the response, the more likely it is that citizens will maintain or regain trust in their political institutions if it has been lost.
2. Equitable Access to Aid: It's not enough to simply provide aid; it must be distributed equitably. Communities that feel neglected or overlooked will likely experience declines in trust.
3. Building Trust Beyond Disasters: Finally, it's important to recognize that disasters are not just challenges to political trust; they're opportunities to build it. When governments respond well, they can strengthen their bond with citizens and foster resilience for future challenges.

Climate Change and the Challenges of the Future

Political trust, as we argue in our book on trust, is foundational to democratic legitimacy, representative governance, and the provision of effective public policy. It is too early to know how the millions of affected citizens in the southeastern United States will evaluate the emergency and recovery efforts for Hurricanes Milton and Helene, two historic storms. But as the impacts of climate change deepen, natural disasters will become ever more frequent, and understanding the relationship between political trust and disaster response will be ever more critical. The lessons from Mexico City remind us that political trust is fragile, but with the right approach, it can be restored or increase-even in the most challenging times.

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