New UW Report: Wyoming 2025 Economic Forecast Mixed

Wyoming's economic outlook is mixed for 2025, with a continuing decline in the coal industry, shortages in housing and child care, and an aging population clouding the state's mid- and long-term growth prospects, according to a new University of Wyoming report.

The Center for Business and Economic Analysis in UW's College of Business issued its second annual Wyoming Economic Forecast in conjunction with the Governor's Business Forum, which is taking place this week on the UW campus at the Marian H. Rochelle Gateway Center.

"The year ahead for Wyoming holds many opportunities and challenges, including finding solutions to current binding constraints for growth -- housing affordability for workers, challenging transportation and connectivity resulting in constrained access to markets, a thin and complex labor market, and the brain drain in our higher-education graduates, among others," the report reads.

Still, the report predicts a slight increase in the state's labor force in 2025, with just a small increase in the unemployment rate to 3.2 percent, lower than the national rate. And the state's population is expected to increase slightly.

The UW economists used the large-scale structural economic forecasting model Moody's Analytics, along with conversations with Wyoming and regional business leaders, to develop the economic outlook report.

Among the positive signs for Wyoming's economy:

-- Employment in natural resources and mining is expected to rise slightly in 2025, along with increases in wholesale trade; construction; manufacturing; retail trade; transportation and utilities; financial services; education and health services; leisure and hospitality; information services; and professional and business services.

-- The continuing decline in employment, wages and the coal industry's contribution to the gross state product are offset somewhat by a relatively strong outlook for other natural resources, including trona and rare earth elements.

-- There are strong business startup numbers, along with growing manufacturing clusters, most notably in Sheridan and Casper.

-- Wyoming ranks No. 2 nationally in science and engineering degrees as a percentage of higher education degrees conferred, with 45.8 percent of the awarded degrees in those fields compared to the national average of 35.7 percent.

-- Venture capital disbursed per $1 million in gross state product in 2022 was $16,149.76 versus the U.S. average of $9,898.93; dollars disbursed per venture capital deal totaled $11.49 million, ranking Wyoming No. 5 nationally versus the U.S. average of $10.14 million per deal.

-- The rate of patents has increased significantly, with 15.18 patents per 1,000 individuals in science and engineering occupations, up from the historical range of four to 12 patents per 1,000 people in those fields.

-- According to the U.S. Census Bureau, new business applications in the state were up 25 percent between September 2023 and September 2024. Wyoming also recently was ranked as the sixth-most entrepreneurial state in the nation by The Digital Project.

On the other hand, economic headwinds include:

-- A continuing lack of quality, affordable housing.

-- Rising property values that are pinching many Wyoming homeowners, although Wyoming residential property tax rates are still among the lowest in the nation.

-- Continuing lack of access to child care for workers.

-- Continuing lack of mobility for business travelers, with numerous winter closures of highways and some reductions in airline service.

-- Lack of reliable internet connectivity, with 18.5 percent of Wyoming locations currently unserved by any broadband provider.

-- A relatively low college-going rate, with only about half of Wyoming high school graduates pursuing higher education.

-- Continuing outmigration of college-educated young people, with around 37 percent of UW alumni still living in the state among graduates between 2007-2024.

-- The growth in the state's population will be driven primarily by people ages 45 and over, with the populations of residents 0-4, 5-19, 20-24 and 25-44 years old expected to decline.

"The implications of our aging population are broad reaching," the report reads. "The K-12 school-age student population will be impacted in both the near- and long-term; the workforce necessary for economic growth and the number of potential entrepreneurs and small-business owners will decline. In addition, by 2031, the high school enrollment of the state is expected to decline by 5.6 percent, according to the National Center for Educational Statistics."

To read the full Wyoming Economic Forecast, go to www.uwyo.edu/cbea/_files/documents/wef2024.pdf.

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