August 2024 Newsletter

The Oregon Energy Strategy is closing in on its first major milestone - finalizing a Reference Scenario. Scenarios are used in an energy system model to show different pathways to meeting Oregon's energy and climate goals.

The Reference Scenario will become the core pathway built by the model to achieve Oregon's "anchor" energy policy objectives: Executive Order 20-04 (reduce economy-wide greenhouse gas emissions 80 percent by 2050), HB 2021 (100 percent clean electricity targets), and the Department of Environmental Quality's Climate Protection Program (90 percent greenhouse gas emissions reductions for fuels by 2050). In addition to those objectives, other modeling inputs on existing trends and policies identified by the Energy Strategy Advisory Group, Working Groups, State of Oregon peer agencies, and public comments are incorporated into the scenario. As ODOE works to finalize the Reference Scenario, we will continue to accept comments on it through September 4.

Once the Reference Scenario is finalized, the next step in the development of the energy system model is to create five alternative scenarios for comparison against the Reference Scenario. Alternative scenarios will produce different pathways to achieve Oregon's goals. The alternatives start with the same assumptions of the Reference Scenario, and then make one or two significant changes that help address a "what if" question, such as "What if electricity transmission is constrained in the future?" or "What if transportation electrification is slower than expected in the medium- and heavy-duty vehicle sector?" ODOE will publish a draft list of these alternative scenarios soon and provide opportunity for comments through the comment portal on our website. Sign up for Energy Strategy email updates to be notified when new information or requests for comment are posted.

Once completed, these alternative scenarios will be compared against the Reference Scenario to provide information on the differences in costs between them. We don't expect the Energy Strategy model to provide the final answer to how the state should achieve its energy objectives; it is a tool for understanding the effects of different energy pathway choices. ODOE and our consultants will further evaluate the effects of different scenarios on equity, environmental justice, land use, jobs, air quality, and public health. The information we gather will provide a basis for analysis and discussion around what policies are needed to achieve the clean energy transition while maintaining a resilient and affordable energy system - and create a more equitable energy future for Oregon. Modeling results are expected to be available by the end of 2024.

Want to learn more? Check out ODOE's Energy Strategy webpage to learn more about the project and view past meetings and materials. And please join us on September 24 at 1 p.m. for a project update webinar (log-in information available online).