College of William and Mary

10/29/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 10/29/2024 12:52

Election 2024: W&M professors provide insight on unprecedented election season

Election 2024: W&M professors provide insight on unprecedented election season

Various stickers encouraging people to vote are displayed in the Sadler Atrium. Photo by Stephen Salpukas

As with every election, democracy is at the top of mind for many in the United States as November approaches. Candidates across the country are hitting the home stretch of the campaign, pitching their vision for the country to myriad voters with different backgrounds and viewpoints.

At William & Mary, democracy is predominant as one of the core initiatives of the Vision 2026 strategic plan. The Democracy Initiative focuses its efforts around civics education and scholarship and research.

  • At the staff level, this included gathering more than 1,400 faculty and staff at W&M - over 70% of employees - for the university's first-ever all-employee event devoted to absorbing the vital skills of democratic engagement.
  • For students as well as staff, training is provided through the Aspen Institute's Better Arguments program, allowing students to utilize tools to engage with the many distinct viewpoints that exist both on and off campus.
  • The university also leads the way in voter participation, earning a Platinum Seal from nonprofit ALL IN for achieving a voting rate on campus of 82.4%, becoming one of only 47 campuses nationwide to receive the distinction.

Professors across campus conduct extensive research in areas that contribute to a wider understanding of government, politics and elections, providing citizens with the tools they need to better engage in democracy.

With early voting already underway in Virginia and Election Day approaching Nov. 5, W&M News reached out to four professors at William & Mary to hear their expertise on the state of the race and issues that are paramount to voters.

Questions and answers have been edited for length and clarity.

Volunteers registered William & Mary students to vote in the Sadler Atrium. (Photo by Stephen Salpukas)

Economy

Q: With the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates for the first time in four years, what impact will this have on the election? How would you describe the economy right now?

Peter Atwater: Federal Reserve interest rate cuts typically lag the financial markets as investors act in anticipation of policymaker actions. While interest rates have moderated, given the dramatic increase we've seen since the pandemic, that moderation isn't likely to have much of a psychological impact on voters, other than those who may be currently buying a house or refinancing their mortgage.

As far as the economy, measured in a snapshot, the current picture looks quite good. Inflation and unemployment are both low while the financial markets are near all-time highs. When it comes to the economy, though, voters tend to look both forwards and backwards. Going to the polls in November, they will clearly remember the period of high food and energy inflation of the past few years, especially because they are now living with the cumulative effects, not just the current rate of inflation. At the same time, they will be casting their vote for the candidate they believe will best manage the economy ahead. As a general rule, if voters currently feel confident about the future prospects for the economy, they will vote for the incumbent. If they feel vulnerable, they will demand change.

Atwater is an adjunct professor of economics with a focus on decision-making in global markets.

Gender/Reproductive Rights

Q: With reproductive rights measures on the ballot in several states, how might that impact turnout, if at all? How salient is the issue of reproductive rights in American elections?

Claire McKinney: Reproductive rights measures will almost certainly increase turnout in the November election. Since Dobbs (v. Jackson), people in favor of abortion rights have been highly motivated, and activists have put a lot of time and effort into getting out the vote. That being said, it is unclear whether high turnout for ballot measures will have a definitive impact on the outcome of the presidential election. Evidence from 2022 shows that voters are willing to split their vote, voting in favor of abortion rights and then voting for Republican politicians. It is only when Republican candidates are successfully tied to anti-abortion positions that we see meaningful decrease in support. The slight increase in Democratic turnout may be enough to sway incredibly close elections, but the fact that abortion rights are so popular, I don't think you can predict what difference turning out voters in favor of abortion rights will have on which party wins the presidency or particular Senate races.

Reproductive rights are more salient now in electoral politics than ever before in American history. Before Roe v. Wade, there were some state initiatives, but this was not an issue on the top of most voters' minds. After Dobbs, the continual news coverage and the deeply held beliefs of many women that a fundamental right was taken away from them has transformed reproductive politics into a top issue.

McKinney is an assistant professor of government. Her research focuses on the intersections of gender, politics and reproduction in the American context.

Virginia Voting

Q: What issues are at the front of mind for Virginians this election cycle? What trends are we seeing in voting behavior from last year's election?

John McGlennon: Polling in Virginia shows that voters have many of the same concerns that we find in other states and national surveys. First on their minds are the state of the economy and the cost of living. While this remains the top issue, two things have been noticed recently. The first is that its dominance as an issue has dropped slightly, perhaps in response to a decline in inflation, cuts in interest rates and a continued strong labor market. In the spring, Donald Trump enjoyed a sizable lead over President Joe Biden on this issue, but that advantage has narrowed in recent polls, as Vice President (Kamala) Harris has taken over the Democratic nomination and voter impressions of the economy have improved.

But this is not the only issue on voters' minds, and the protection of democracy, reproductive health and immigration have been among the top issues consistently. It is a challenge to determine how much difference an issue can make, as in some cases the public is closely divided on who would handle the issue better, while in other cases, a second or third-ranked issue may be more intensely felt by voters than some that come to mind most quickly.

Last year, Virginians elected the entire General Assembly, all 40 state senators and 100 members of the House of Delegates, as well as many local officials. The voting resulted in narrow majorities for Democrats in both houses of the legislature, despite a major effort by Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin. Turnout was high for this kind of off-off-year election. The parties certainly used this election as a test for voter identification and mobilization.

McGlennon, the Class of 1935 Professor of Government, specializes in United States politics with a focus on the South and Virginia. His research interests include state and local government.

A William & Mary student fills out a voter registration form at the Sadler Atrium. (Photo by Stephen Salpukas)

Social Media

Q: Both presidential campaigns have leaned into social media in varying capacities. What trends are being seen and what impact do they have on likely voters and independents?

Liz Losh: When my Washington Center class met with Macon Phillips, the head of digital strategy for the Obama campaign and Obama's first term in office, Phillips' number one worry (was) about online influencing of public opinion in ways that are relatively invisible. For example, now that Google has introduced AI-assisted search, I see a lot more misinformation and lack of nuance in search results. For example, last month I was trying to answer a relatively straightforward question: What was JD Vance's highest military rank in his service record? But the suggested answer was actually the rank of the other vice presidential candidate, Tim Walz. AI systems are getting a lot better about parsing grammar, but this is a pretty substantial hallucination to see.

I wrote about both Trump and Harris in "Selfie Democracy." A few quick observations. Both candidates - and many of their surrogates - have active TikTok accounts despite the bipartisan anti-China rhetoric about the platform and talk of banning it. Trump is still maintaining an active presence on Truth Social - which he has a financial interest in - despite being back on X/Twitter as well. Traditional media companies are often covering his Truth Social posts rather than citing his posts on Twitter/X, so it is creating free advertising for his platform. His account also interacts less with other accounts than it has in the past. (I write about the gradual development of Trump's digital literacy in my book and how he "apprenticed" on Twitter.) Harris is doing less of what Crystal Abidin has called "calibrated amateurism" on social media than she did during her first run for president and (is) being presented as much more presidential, despite all the memes.

Losh is the Duane A. and Virginia S. Dittman Professor of English & American Studies and specializes in digital humanities and electronic literature.

Additional insights

William & Mary professors are often cited by media outlets across the nation on important issues. Further reading on the 2024 election with insight from W&M voices can be found below:

William Oster, Communications Specialist

Tags: Democracy, Faculty on Topic, Research