COP29: Multilateralism, Delays, Controversies, and Mixed Results for Climate Finance, Adaptation, and Agriculture

Reflections by Daniela Miranda, Advocacy, Negotiations, and Partnership Intelligence, CGIAR.

COP29 has come to an end, not without delays -with the plenary ending almost at 6 am on Sunday-, and controversies and some rather questionable results. Let's see what happened and what this means for the agriculture and food systems sector.

This was advertised and was supposed to be the finance COP. Indeed, Parties adopted a new climate finance goal (NCQG), setting a target of at least $300 billion annually by 2035 for developing countries. What, in theory, triplicates the old goal of $100 billion; however, as stated by one of the Parties, the initial text with a $250 billion proposal essentially represented the older $100 billion per year goal with 6% annual inflation. Therefore, the $300 billion only represents a tiny increase of the compromise established at COP21 in 2019 and far from the $1.3 trillion that developing countries were demanding.

Another point of contention is that the funding will come from various sources, including public, private, bilateral, and multilateral channels, with developed countries taking the lead but with broad language on whether the funding will be through highly concessional finance, grants, loans, etc. Developing countries are encouraged to contribute on a voluntary basis.

Just to put an example of how weak this new goal is for developing countries' needs, just to transform food systems and align with the 1.5-degree target, $300-400 billion are needed annually. We are still far from a sectorial goal, but at least we have a starting point now.

The text reaffirms all obligations under Article 9 of the Paris Agreement on the obligations of developed countries to provide resources to developing countries' Parties in both mitigation and adaptation, including scaling up finance for LDCs and SIDS.

In order to calm the waters and include language on the demands of developing countries, a "Baku to Belém Roadmap" was introduced to outline a pathway toward $1.3 trillion annually, with a report expected at COP30 in Brazil next year. And while the text recognizes that finance is needed to respond to loss and damage and adaptation efforts, there's no specific quantum or proportion for these aspects.

It is worth noting that several developing countries didn't want to accept the proposed text, however, the Presidency didn't let any second for Parties to intervene and adopted the decision. This is dangerous not only for the countries and communities whose existence depends on this funding, but for all multilateral processes that rely on specific rules that were not strictly respected this time.

Parties spent almost the two weeks on procedural discussions on the Global Goal Adaptation (GGA). The discussions revealed deep dissensus over the inclusion of means of implementation (MOI), the concept of transformational adaptation, and whether GGA should become a permanent agenda item. On the last sessions of negotiations, Parties adopted the Baku Adaptation Roadmap to define indicators and assess progress on adaptation targets, the agenda item on the matters related to the Global Goal on Adaptation was placed on the agenda for future sessions.

Regarding the indicators, a final list will be decided during COP30 in Brazil, and experts will continue their work, ensuring they apply common approaches and methodologies as they continue their work on refining the indicators or proposing new ones. One important outcome of this decision is the text enhances the "collaboration among the experts working across both the thematic and the dimensional targets with a view to identifying synergies, and facilitate contributions by experts from all geographical regions across all the targets". This is crucial for the food and agriculture sector, as it can be comprehended in its adaptation efforts without the interconnections with water, biodiversity, infrastructure and basically all other GGA targets.

Regarding MOI indicators, broadly understood as climate finance, they were contentious throughout negotiations. The final text softened language around them to "enablers of implementation," combining MOI demands (e.g., finance) with enabling conditions like governance and transparency. On the concept of transformational adaptation, the final text recognized transformational adaptation as a compromise to address developed countries' emphasis on transformative approaches, however, developing countries expressed concerns that including transformational adaptation could introduce barriers to accessing finance. This debate is set to continue during SB62 in June.

On Just Transition, COP29 closed without an agreement on the Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP), a disappointing outcome for many stakeholders who viewed the lack of progress as a failure to deliver on commitments to support workers, communities, and vulnerable populations affected by the climate. The main points of contention were that developed countries pushed for a mitigation-focused approach while developing countries called for a broader scope emphasizing adaptation, finance, and equity, aspects that are key to achieving a true just transition. The momentum created last year on the inclusion of labour rights was lost, and developed countries resisted the language of equity and CBDR. In the meantime, there's no way forward.

Just Transition is key for the agriculture sector, in it's submission, CGIAR called for capacity building, multistakeholder partnerships, and social support for affected and one of the expectations was the recognition of the agrifood system as a crucial sector for achieving a just transition. Now it's time to push the Parties and the next Presidency to resume this topic and recognize the importance and value just transition has for smallholders and all people in developing countries.

Regarding Loss and Damage, minimum progress was made, and despite significant setbacks in the final decision on the WIM and Joint Report, Parties finalized and adopted the Rules of Procedure for the Santiago Network's Advisory Board.Mandated by the COP28 decision in Dubai, these rules are vital for the smooth and effective functioning of the SN Advisory Board. Despite the lack of decisive progress on L&D this year, this paves the way for the Santiago Network to make headway in the L&D landscape to advance its work in preparation for the next COP30 in Belém.

After controversial discussions, Parties agreed to extend the enhanced Lima Work Programme on Gender and its associated Gender Action Plan (GAP) for 10 years, overcoming significant tensions around finance, inclusive language, and the framework's placement under the UN climate processes. The final text avoided explicit finance commitments, reflecting the position of developed countries that such discussions should happen in broader finance negotiations. This disappointed developing countries that sought dedicated funding for gender-responsive policies.

The Agriculture track saw the conclusions from week one adopted, and Parties have requested the Secretariat to further develop the online portal and develop a template for Parties and observers to share their submissions, this based on the diagram proposed by Parties and annexed to the conclusions. Parties and observers now have the opportunity to share more information on projects, initiatives, and policies that support climate action on agriculture and food security. Those will be made available on the online portal. CGIAR will be preparing its submission for both the contributions for the online portal and for the upcoming workshop in June 2025 and June 2026, and will keep working together with Parties, organizations and partner centres to put the science in the forefront of climate negotiations.

Also during week one, negotiations on the Article 6.8work programme concluded with finalized text and adopted conclusions, marking progress toward advancing non-market approaches (NMAs) under the Paris Agreement. Key outcomes included acknowledgment of the platform's low uptake, with only one NMA submitted so far, but an expectation of increased engagement over time. The second phase will focus on implementing activities through a learning-by-doing approach informed by the first phase, with enhanced engagement of stakeholders, including Indigenous Peoples. Spin-off groups will continue, with topics identified in advance, and outreach efforts will be scaled up to boost participation. Parties are encouraged to provide input on NMAs, and submissions by March 2025 will explore barriers, solutions, and ways NMAs can support NDC implementation.

At the end of the conference, several critical issues remain unresolved as we look ahead to the next SB sessions in June and COP30 in Brazil. The WMO has announced that we are already breaching the 1.5C threshold, and the next round of NDCs, due in three months, will be pivotal to get us back on track. COP may last just two weeks each year, but the decisions made there can transform communities and livelihoods, especially in developing countries. In these regions, where agriculture is key to survival, multilateral action and science can mean the difference between adapting or disappearing.

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