Majority Favor Democrats in Competitive House Districts; Biden, Schiff Continue to Hold Wide Leads

SAN FRANCISCO, June 13, 2024-With the November election five months away, a majority of likely voters in California's competitive US House districts favor the Democratic candidates. President Joe Biden continues to hold a large lead over Donald Trump in the presidential race in California, while Congressman Adam Schiff has maintained his sizeable lead over professional baseball representative Steve Garvey. More than six in ten likely voters say they would vote "no" on a November ballot measure that would make it more difficult for state and local officials to raise revenues. These are among the key findings from a statewide survey released today by the Public Policy Institute of California.

Asked how they would vote if the election for the US House of Representatives were held today, 62 percent of California likely voters say the Democratic candidate and 36 percent say the Republican candidate. In the ten competitive House districts according to the Cook Political Report (districts 3, 9, 13, 22, 27, 40, 41, 45, 47, and 49), 59 percent favor the Democratic candidate and 39 percent favor the Republican candidate.

Thirty percent of likely voters are either extremely enthusiastic (16%) or very enthusiastic (14%) about voting for Congress this year. This is a lower level of enthusiasm than two years ago (May 2022), when 38 percent were either extremely enthusiastic (17%) or very enthusiastic (21%) about voting for Congress.

"Democratic candidates lead Republican candidates in local House district races by a 26-point margin and by a 20-point margin across the competitive districts," said Mark Baldassare, PPIC Statewide Survey director and Miller Chair in Public Policy. "Thirty percent are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting for Congress this year."

The new PPIC Statewide Survey also finds:

• Biden and Schiff maintain large leads. At the top of the ballot, President Biden leads former president Donald Trump by a wide margin, with 55 percent of likely voters favoring Biden, 31 percent favoring Trump, and 13 percent saying they would vote for someone else. This is nearly identical to Biden's lead over Trump in April (54% to 31%). More than one-third of likely voters (36%) say they are very interested in the upcoming presidential debates, scheduled for late June and early September.

  "Joe Biden leads Donald Trump by a wide margin in the presidential race," Baldassare said. "Thirty-six percent of California likely voters are very interested in their upcoming debates."

  In the race for the US Senate, Congressman Adam Schiff holds a 62% to 37% lead over professional baseball representative Steve Garvey. This is virtually unchanged from Schiff's lead in April (61% to 37%). Twenty percent of likely voters say they are very interested in having a series of debates or town halls with the two Senate candidates.

  "Adam Schiff leads Steve Garvey by a 25-point margin in the US Senate race," Baldassare said. "One in five likely voters are very interested in having a series of debates and town halls with the two candidates."

• Majorities say this is a bad time for state bonds, would vote "no" on raising the threshold for new state and local taxes, and would vote "no" on lowering the threshold to approve some local revenues. As state leaders consider several bond measures to put before the voters in November, a solid majority of likely voters (64%) say that this is a bad time to issue bonds for state programs and infrastructure projects.

  A citizens' initiative that has qualified for the November ballot would require a two-thirds vote to approve local tax increases and would require voter approval and a two-thirds vote by the legislature to enact state tax increases. A solid majority of likely voters (63%) say they would vote "no" on this ballot measure, including majorities across partisan groups (70% Democrats, 56% independents, 55% Republicans).

  A legislative constitutional amendment that has qualified for the November ballot would replace the two-thirds vote requirement with a 55 percent majority for voters to pass local taxes and bonds for public infrastructure and affordable housing. A majority of likely voters (53%) would vote "no" on this measure, including solid majorities of Republicans (77%) and independents (63%), while 37 percent of Democrats would vote "no."

  "A majority of likely voters say this is a bad time for state bonds," Baldassare said. "Majorities would vote 'no' on a citizens' initiative to raise the threshold for new state and local taxes and 'no' on a legislative initiative to lower the vote threshold to pass some local taxes and bonds."

• Most Californians generally support the governor's May Revision to the state budget; views are mixed on specific proposals. After being read a brief description of the May Revision-the revised state budget that Governor Newsom released last month-majorities of adults (54%) and likely voters (55%) say they favor the governor's overall approach. Views vary across party lines, with Democrats (71%) more likely than independents (49%) and Republicans (26%) to approve.

  The governor's revised budget proposes using $4.2 billion from reserves, mostly from the Budget Stabilization Account or "Rainy Day Fund," to help address the current state budget shortfall. Forty-four percent of adults (and 48% of likely voters) say drawing on reserves is a good idea, while 51 percent of adults (and 49% of likely voters) say it is a bad idea.

  The governor's revised budget also calls for $15.2 billion in spending cuts across climate programs, housing programs, and other areas. Forty-seven percent of adults (and 52% of likely voters) say these spending cuts are a good idea, and 48 percent of adults (and 45% of likely voters) say they are a bad idea.

  "Majorities favor the governor's revised state budget plan, while specific proposals for spending cuts and the use of rainy day funds receive more mixed reviews," Baldassare said.

• Californians are pessimistic about the state of California and the nation. Majorities of adults (62%) and likely voters (59%) think that things in California are generally going in the wrong direction, while solid majorities (68% adults, 64% likely voters) think that California will have bad economic times during the next 12 months. Overwhelming majorities (75% adults, 74% likely voters) think things in the United States are generally going in the wrong direction, while solid majorities (68% adults, 62% likely voters) think the nation will have bad economic times during the next 12 months.

  "Majorities believe the state and nation are headed in the wrong direction and are expecting bad times financially," Baldassare said.

About the Survey

The Californians and Their Government survey is supported with funding from the Arjay R. and Frances F. Miller Foundation.

The findings are based on responses from 1,677 California adult residents. The sampling error is ±3.1 percent at the 95 percent confidence level for the total unweighted sample and ±3.7 percent for the 1,098 likely voters. Interviewing took place from May 23-June 2, 2024. For more information, please see the methodology section in the full survey report.

Mark Baldassare is statewide survey director at PPIC, where he holds the Arjay and Frances Fearing Miller Chair in Public Policy. He is founder of the PPIC Statewide Survey, which he has directed since 1998.

The Public Policy Institute of California is dedicated to informing and improving public policy in California through independent, objective, nonpartisan research. We are a public charity. We do not take or support positions on any ballot measure or on any local, state, or federal legislation, nor do we endorse, support, or oppose any political parties or candidates for public office. Research publications reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of our funders or of the staff, officers, advisory councils, or board of directors of the Public Policy Institute of California.

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