Tips for contextualizing summer violence

Summer after summer, shootings spike in communities across the U.S. Data consistently shows that as temperatures rise, so do the number of shootings.

While this deadly reality often grabs headlines, that reporting often lacks context. With the summer coming to an end soon, I wanted to share tips for responsibly reporting on the summer surge in violence.

What's happening?

Violent crime consistently peaks during the summer, research has long found.

"Estimated risk of firearm incidents increased almost monotonically with higher temperatures," researchers wrote in a study looking at shootings in 100 cities over a six-year period.

That study found an association between heat and violence. Researchers learned that more violence occurs during days of the year with abnormally high temperatures, regardless of the season.

Warmer temperatures bring people outside to socialize. Also, in areas without easy access to air-conditioning, residents escape the heat indoors and spend time on porches and in parks. Summer also means more social events, like family reunions, block parties and festivals.

Researchers aren't explicitly pinning the blame on people hanging outside or throwing a party. Rather, these conditions make the chance higher for conflict to arise. There's more of a chance for violence to break out, especially without jobs or summer programs for kids.

Kids more likely to be victims

Hotter weather can also increase stress levels, heart rate and blood pressure, which can all lead to discomfort, anger and more conflict, according to Giffords Law Center.

"With everyone outside, there are more face-to-face interactions which can lead to disputes that may turn violent," according to Giffords.

Also, without the structure of a school day, it's more likely that kids will be exposed to violent situations. About 20 more kids and teens die each of the summer months across the country, according to Giffords.

"While young people are often blamed for causing gun violence, they are much more likely to be victims," Giffords says.

The University of Chicago Crime Lab found that shooting incidents reach their peak in Chicago during the summer, making up 38% of the total annual incidents. July alone contributes to 12% of these tragic incidents, the Crime Lab found.

Summer holidays and violence

Fourth of July weekend is also a notoriously violent weekend each summer. But luckily, The Trace reported that shootings dropped to a five-year low during this year's holiday.

Using data from the Gun Violence Archive, The Trace found that 245 people were injured or killed in shootings on the holiday, a 20% decrease from last year and a 46% decrease from the height of the pandemic in 2020.

All of the context above is key for reporting on this summer's surge. It's helpful for readers, viewers and listeners to understand some of the reasons why and to know what solutions to report on, like providing more opportunities for kids and teens during the summer months.

Data resources

The next crucial part of reporting on this trend is data. The Gun Violence Archive offers near-real time data on shooting incidents around the country. This is one of the best ways to report on recent trends along with local law enforcement's data on violent crime.

(Learn more about how to use the Gun Violence Archive in this data dive.)

If you're looking to capture previous summer figures or year-to-year trends, these are some additional reliable data sources:

• The CDC maintains extensive data on gun violence in its National Violent Death Reporting System (NVDRS).
• The CDC's death data is based on death certificates at the state level. Since each state has a different timeline for reporting that information, the figures are often delayed and not in real time.
• The FBI also reports gun violence data; however, there is a lag similar to the CDC's. For example, 2022's crime statistics were published in October 2023.

Humanize the victims

As it is any time of year, reporting on violence must include humanizing the people most impacted. This is especially key if you're reporting on a surge in violence - it's easy to get swept up in just reporting on these overall totals.

Reporting on this trend should include profiles of victims and their loved ones to tell their full stories.

It's also important to identify solutions being used to prevent and stem the violence. Those could mean intervention programs like street outreach that aims to interrupt a violent act and connect high-risk individuals to services and peer support.

Giffords also pointed to summer-specific interventions like providing youth opportunities like summer activities or jobs.

More resources

• Philadelphia Center for Gun Violence Reporting was founded to explore the idea that better gun violence reporting can improve public understanding and support effective programs and policies to prevent shootings. A part of the Center's mission is to determine whether changing the practice of news reporting can prevent gun violence. The Center provides tips for better reporting practices and supports research on how the news media can do better when covering gun violence.
• The Trace is a nonprofit news organization founded in 2015 and focuses entirely on firearm violence. It focuses on solutions and casts a skeptical eye on "easy answers." It is essential reading for anyone interested in reporting on this topic.