Dallas–Fort Worth Economic Indicators August 29, 2024

Dallas-Fort Worth Economic Indicators

The Dallas−Fort Worth economy continued to slow in July as employment fell, though average hourly earnings remain strong. As employment growth cools, so does the Dallas consumer price index (CPI). Spending, seen through retail sales tax collections, was little changed in July.

Labor market

Payrolls continue to contract in July

In July, DFW employment declined 0.9 percent annualized after contracting 1.3 percent annualized in June (Chart 1). While employment remained flat in Dallas from June to July, Fort Worth saw an annualized loss of 3.0 percent, contributing the most to the overall decline in the metropolitan statistical area.

In the last three months, the greatest employment losses have been in professional and business services (-2.9 percent), information (-2.0 percent) and education and healthcare (-1.8 percent). Finance (5.0 percent) and mining and construction (3.0 percent) saw significant gains in the same period, however.

Unemployment ticks down

While payroll employment was weak, DFW unemployment ticked down from 3.9 percent in June to 3.8 percent in July (Chart 2). Dallas stayed flat at 3.8 percent, while Fort Worth declined from 3.9 to 3.8 percent. The metro remains below the Texas jobless rate of 4.1 percent and the nation's rate of 4.3 percent, both of which saw upticks in July.

Smoothed earnings continue to grow

In July, DFW hourly earnings were $35.14 (with the three month moving average at $34.91), greater than both the state ($32.97) and the nation ($35.07) (Chart 3). However, year-over-year growth at the state (3.7 percent) and national (3.6 percent) levels continues to outpace the metro (1.0 percent), suggesting DFW's earnings growth may be comparatively slowing.

Retail spending and inflation

Growth in retail sales tax collection in DFW outpaces the state

In July, DFW retail sales tax collections rose 0.4 percent month over month following a 0.9 percent decline in June. This is a reversal of the past quarter, when DFW grew more slowly than the rest of the state (Chart 4). Year over year, Fort Worth leads spending growth at 7.1 percent, though Dallas (3.5 percent) continues to grow much faster than the state (0.7 percent) as well.

CPI continues to cool but remains higher than the nation

The 12-month change in the Dallas CPI cooled from 4.9 percent headline (5.1 percent core) in June to 4.1 percent headline (4.3 percent core) in July (Chart 5). While year-over-year growth in food prices remained close to 2.0 percent for the third month, growth in shelter prices remain elevated at 6.8 percent in July. In comparison, U.S. CPI grew more slowly, at 2.9 percent headline (1.7 percent core), with food prices showing similar growth at 2.2 percent year over year.