Election Preview

10/30/24

Election Day Preview

The big day, Election Day 2024, is finally upon us. Here is a preview on what to watch for when the results roll in across Ohio next week:

Ohio General Assembly-Republicans should comfortably hold their majorities in the Ohio House and Senate, but with the new maps established last year there are a handful of seats expected to flip from one party to the other. Even though 116 seats are up (99 House, 17 Senate), the vast majority are "safe" seats for one party or the other. However, the key storyline to watch is if the blue urban counties get bluer and flip more of the shrinking number of Republican-held suburban seats there. Another storyline to watch is, current Senate President Matt Huffman (R-Lima) is term-limited in the Senate but is running in a safe seat for the Ohio House. He is openly also running for Ohio House Speaker next year and is challenging current House Speaker Jason Stephens (R-Kitts Hill) for the Speaker's gavel. The formal vote takes place at the start of the 136^th GA that starts in January but there may be an informal caucus vote before that.

Ohio Supreme Court - Three of the Seven seats on Ohio's highest court are up this year. The bench is currently four Republicans including Chief Justice Kennedy, and three Democrats. Two of the three seats up this year are held by Democrat justices, with one open seat being vacated by a Republican to challenge one of the Democrats. This year's Supreme Court elections are the second election with the new law in place that requires party affiliation on the ballot next to Supreme Court candidates. i.e. Joe Deters (Republican). If 2024 is like the 2022 election, Republicans will likely sweep all three. Polling is notoriously sparse for these races and difficult to conduct, but does the Ohio Supreme Court matter for banks?

Issue 1- This is the big political ballot amendment. If passed, the amendment creates an "independent" commission to approve new electoral maps and districts. The setup proposed is intended to curb gerrymandering. Generally, Republican groups oppose it, while Democrat groups support it. This issue is a bit in the weeds, and it remains to be seen if it moves the needle for turnout with the top of the ticket in play. Ballot amendments are easy to create in Ohio, so it's become the main play in the state for Democrat-affiliated groups to affect sweeping policy changes since they hold super-minorities in the legislature, no statewide executive offices, and no longer hold the Ohio Supreme Court. Here's an article on Issue 1 for a good overview.

OH US Senate: Sherrod Brown vs. Bernie Moreno- This is officially now the most expensive Senate race in US history. Polling reports are all over the place, but a good source is RealClearPolitics since they aggregate and average out a handful of public polls. RCP has it in a virtual dead heat with a 1% edge to Brown. Brown has long been seen as one of the top flip targets for national Republicans heading into this cycle. Trump at the top of the ticket in a red state does a lot of heavy lifting for Moreno here, as Moreno is somewhat of an outsider/political unknown going against a seasoned Sherrod Brown.

US Presidential - Staying focused on Ohio. Ohio is no longer a swing state, but Sherrod Brown has remained the exception to the rule over his tenure in the US Senate. Trump won Ohio in 2016 by 8%, and that margin was slightly bigger in 2020. Trump likely wins Ohio handily. Industry note - Trump over the last month has openly embraced crypto, even doing a photo op paying for a transaction at a physical POS system with a crypto phone app and tweeting crypto-specific campaign promotions.

Fun Fact: There are 76 days between Election Day and Inauguration Day.