The Gulf, The Riyadh Summit and the Hamas-Israel war

• Med this WeekMiddle East and North Africa

The MED This Week newsletter provides informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions and reliable foresight on future scenarios. Today we shed light on the political and diplomatic consequences of the Riyadh summit and the role of the Gulf in the Hamas-Israel conflict.

Last Saturday, leaders of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the Arab League gathered in Riyadh for a summit on the Israel-Hamas war. Despite the consensus on the need for a ceasefire, the conference's final declaration showed, once again, that Arab and Muslim countries have conflicting views on how to address the Palestinian issue. While some countries adopted a more assertive stance towards the war, those with established diplomatic relations with Israel pushed back, stressing the need to maintain open channels for dialogue. In a context marked by these polarised perspectives, Saudi Arabia skilfully navigated a delicate balancing act. Another key player was the President of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Ebrahim Raisi, whose presence at the summit garnered attention. Despite seizing the opportunity to solidify the rapprochement with Riyadh, Teheran scaled back the conference's final declaration, defining it "a strong text" that, however, included provisions Iran had reservations about. Among the countries that took part in the summit, Qatar stands out as probably the one most involved in the negotiations between Israel and Hamas. Doha's efforts are ambitious, reflecting Qatar's intention to prevent the regionalisation of the conflict.

Experts from the ISPI network discuss the political and diplomatic consequences of the Riyadh summit and the role of the Gulf in the Hamas-Israel conflict.

The Arab and Muslim world is struggling to find common ground on the war

"The joint emergency summits were a unique opportunity for the Arab and Muslim world to make its voice heard in an increasingly multipolar scene that is moving away from a global information environment dominated by pro-Israel narratives. On key issues, however, the member states failed to find common ground, which shows that while the Arab and Muslim world is appalled by the atrocities committed in Gaza, there are significant differences of policy and opinion on how to balance the Palestinian cause with US expectations to retain working relations with Israel. Despite the outrage expressed about Israel's warfare in Gaza, countries who have diplomatic relations with Israel are unwilling to jeopardise their agreements over this war. Even Saudi Arabia aims to maintain all options open, to continue normalisation talks after the end of hostilities."

Andreas Krieg, Associate Professor, School of Security Studies, King's College London

This time, Riyadh is holding the middle ground

"Saudi Arabia has demonstrated its convening powers and embraced its leadership role in the Arab and Islamic world, despite the clear risks in doing so. The current scenario is difficult to navigate. With several Arab countries effectively boxed in by normalisation agreements, and others demanding unrealistic measures, such as an oil boycott, Saudi Arabia is well placed to hold the middle ground. There are two immediate priorities: to impose an immediate ceasefire accompanied by humanitarian support to the Palestinians and to prevent a regional expansion of the conflict. While the call for a ceasefire runs counter to the initial American position, the Biden Administration may appreciate the leverage it provides to curtail the excesses of the Israeli advance. Would the Saudi leadership have the appetite to extend this leadership role towards a post-war solution in Gaza, with the political risk and financial obligation that will entail? It seems unlikely without a dramatic change in Israeli orientation and leadership, and a political commitment not yet demonstrated by the Americans."

Kristin Smith Diwan, Former Assistant Professor, American University School of International Service; Senior Resident Scholar, AGSIW

The Iran-Saudi Arabia competition has not disappeared

"Two middle powers in a small region, Iran and Saudi Arabia not only compete for supremacy in the Persian Gulf region, but also for the leadership of the Islamic world. This rivalry is also evident in international organisations such as the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), where the impoverished and Shia Iran struggles to compete with wealthy, generous and Sunni Saudi Arabia. What Iran lacks in wealth and sectarian affinity it compensates with its support for the Palestinian cause. No final declaration would have been good enough for the Islamic Republic, and President Ebrahim Raisi would have topped the demands of any declaration just to outcompete Saudi Arabia!"

Ali Alfoneh, Senior Fellow, AGSIW

Qatar's mediation effort is unlike previous ones

"Qatar's mediation goals in the Hamas-Israel war are different from its previous diplomatic efforts, since the conflict is now occurring in the Middle East. For this reason, Doha primarily aims to build negotiation channels between warring parties to prevent regional spreading, a scenario which could also hamper GCC states' economies. Conversely, previous Qatari diplomatic activism in Afghanistan, Chad and even in the Russia-Ukraine war (where Doha brokered the release of Ukrainian children held in Russia) was mostly driven by soft power goals, with the aim of improving its international status and prestige. However, there's a more subtle point which could partly explain Doha's mediation efforts between Hamas and Israel: the partnership with the US. A good diplomatic performance is pivotal for this long-time relationship."

Eleonora Ardemagni, ISPI

Edited by Luigi Toninelli and Mattia Serra

Public link

Please use the above public link if you want to share this noodl on another website.