When climate and cocoa collide: chocolate prices soar as El Nino dries up major producers but is there more to the story

Chocolate connoisseurs were hit by a 10% increase in the price of their favorite sweet this Easter as the world's largest cocoa producers, Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire, found themselves seriously affected by disease, illegal mining, changes in land use and climate change. The price of cocoa began creeping up in the second half of 2022 reaching an all-time high in January 2024.

The cacao bean is now more valuable than several precious metals and has surged even faster than bitcoin. Chocolate prices are expected to double in the next couple of years so your favorite chocolate bar might still be available but at twice the price.

Changing climate patterns are partially responsible for the drop in cocoa production. In Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire which account for 60% of the world's cocoa production, unusually high temperatures and rainfall caused by the El Nino phenomenon devastated crops last year. This year it has brought severe drought to the region reducing the cocoa yield even further.

The decline, however, is not something that happened overnight but is the result of long-term factors whose effects are only now reaching crisis levels. Shifts in land use dynamics as cocoa competes with urbanization and expanding agricultural frontiers, crop disease in the form of swollen stem, and galamsey, the widespread practice of illegal gold mining which leaves land contaminated by heavy metals and illegal logging, have all contributed to the dwindling production. A study by the International Water Management Institute (IWMI) shows that there has been a significant decline in precipitation over the past thirty years with increased water stress and a drier climate. The findings of the soon to be published study, carried out under the two CGIAR initiatives Transforming AgriFood Systems in West and Central Africa and Excellence in Agronomy, paint a concerning picture of the challenges cocoa farmers face due to climate change. The implications of climate change on cocoa farming are profound and demand immediate attention from stakeholders across the industry.

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