Former French President warns 'we must be prepared' for US reduction of military support in Europe

The talk, titled In Conversation with François Hollande: A Former French President's Perspective on Key Geopolitical Challenges, was organised in collaboration with Sciences Po Alumni UK, with participation from the UK Chapter of the Légion d'Honneur and UCL's European Institute. During the wide-ranging discussion, Hollande addressed pressing issues such as the war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East and the growing influence of China and Russia. He also shared insights from his presidency and discussed the implications of Donald Trump's return to the White House.

Increased military support for Ukraine

Reflecting on his time in office during Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, Hollande suggested that the West's failure to take decisive action in Syria in 2013 encouraged Russia's aggression in Ukraine the following year. 'At that particular point, Putin understood that he could go further,' he said. He warned that further inadequate responses would be a signal to Putin that he could escalate his actions without facing significant consequences.

This is the first time since the Cold War where troops from another continent have been on European soil. Can we face this threat? We must react."

President François Hollande

On the potential impact of Donald Trump's leadership on European defence, Hollande cautioned that while the US is unlikely to fully withdraw from NATO, a reduced military presence in Central Europe is possible. He stressed that Europe must be ready to take greater responsibility for its own security and continue to provide sustained and increased military aid to Ukraine, particularly as Russia strengthens alliances with countries like North Korea.

"We may see a retreat of US troops from Central Europe, and then it will be up to the EU to assert itself... Donald Trump is not necessarily a predictable person, but we can't believe that he won't do what he says. Therefore, we need to be prepared."

President François Hollande

The role of the US in the Middle East

On the ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Hollande emphasised that the US will be crucial in fostering peace in the region, despite the complexities of Trump's relationship with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He noted that Trump's influence could help de-escalate tensions in the region but warned that without a viable two-state solution, the future remains uncertain for Palestinians.

Trump doesn't necessarily want war; he wants to show that the strength of the United States can bring peace."

President François Hollande

On a political comeback

When asked about the possibility of running for president again, Hollande did not rule it out, acknowledging that political comebacks are rare but not impossible. Now an MP in French parliament, he explained that it is difficult to predict early on who will gain the necessary support, as such a shift usually occurs only a few months before an election, when the country turns toward a particular figure. 'It happened to me once, created a desire, and maybe it can happen again,' he said.

Advancing global conversations on international security

Throughout the discussion, critical global issues were addressed, including the role of social media in undermining democratic values, the ongoing challenges of implementing the Paris Agreement, and the complex pressures faced by emerging nations in meeting climate commitments.

Opening the event, Professor Shitij Kapur, Vice-Chancellor and President of King's, emphasised the importance of fostering meaningful discussions on international affairs that resonate with policymakers and leaders.

We aim for impact on the minds of policymakers and on the minds of politicians, and we can only impact them if we listen to them."

Professor Shitij Kapur, Vice-Chancellor & President of King's College London

The event underscored King's long-standing partnership with Sciences Po, which offers a joint graduate programme in International Affairs, fostering academic collaboration and global dialogue on key issues.