Americans Widely Oppose ‘Project 2025’ According to New UMass Amherst Poll

Rhodes cautions the Trump campaign from veering into the cultural issues targeted by Project 2025, however.

"Trump and his conservative allies need to tread carefully in dealing with culture war issues," he says. "Policies currently favored by the far right - like banning abortion and limiting access to in vitro fertilization - just aren't popular. And while many Americans express considerable anxiety about transgender issues - with a majority now stating that they would support establishing that there are only two genders as determined by birth - efforts to do this would be ugly, divisive and, frankly, dangerous to the well-being of transgender people. The culture war fires up members of the GOP base, but over the long run these issues almost always are losers for Republicans."

Nteta notes that this may already be the case, at least as it pertains to Vance.

"How do you know when your own words have come back to bite you?" Nteta asks. "Since being tapped to be Donald Trump's running mate, Sen. JD Vance of Ohio has been taken to task by Democratic elected officials and progressive media outlets for comments he made outlining his support for limiting the political power of childless American citizens. While Vance has attempted to walk back the comments, the Harris campaign has seized on the controversial comments and labeled Vance as 'weird' and out of step with everyday Americans. The attacks against Vance have seemingly resonated with voters as the word 'weird' is the second most frequently used description of Vance in our polling, only eclipsed by the word 'unknown.' With less than 90 days until Election Day, Vance will need to better define his vice-presidential candidacy or risk becoming a case study in regrettable vice-presidential selections."

Immigration and the 2024 Election

The new UMass Amherst Poll once again surveyed respondents' views on immigration, including views on the "Great Replacement Theory."

"On the issue of immigration, Americans are attracted to both the 'carrot' and the 'stick' approaches to dealing with the nation's influx of undocumented immigrants," Nteta explains. "On the one hand, majorities of Americans support a path to citizenship (57%) and allowing the temporary resettlement and employment of refugees and asylum seekers (51%). However, a majority also wants to build a wall along the Southern border (50%) and a plurality (49%) supports the deportation of the nation's undocumented immigrant population. Given the divergent positions that the Democratic and Republican candidates for president hold on this issue, the 2024 election will be a referendum on the future of immigration reform with the nation finally deciding between the carrot, or the stick."

Rhodes agrees, saying, "Americans seem to be of two minds when it comes to immigration. On one hand, a majority of Americans favor more aggressive immigration enforcement measures, such as building a wall on the border with Mexico and using armed National Guard soldiers to enforce immigration law. On the other hand, a majority also favors a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who meet citizenship requirements and commit no crimes. And only about a third support efforts to ban immigration from Muslim-majority countries. Americans' ambiguous and conflicted attitudes about immigration help explain why immigration policymaking is so difficult and controversial."

However, Rhodes adds that, "When it comes to immigration issues, there are huge generational differences in attitudes. Younger Americans are much more supportive of policies that support - and even provide a citizenship path for - undocumented immigrants, while older Americans are much more likely to support strong enforcement and punitive measures against undocumented immigrants. This generational divide is likely to structure immigration policymaking for the foreseeable future."

Nteta adds that Trump's rhetoric from the stump espousing some of the tenets of the Great Replacement Theory, while rallying the GOP base, may add to the difficulty of actually achieving a solution to the nation's immigration issues.

"For years, conservative media outlets and a number of prominent Republican elected officials have been espousing the central tenets of the white supremacist doctrine known as the Great Replacement Theory, which argues that immigrants, Jewish Americans and people of color are seeking to limit the cultural, political and socioeconomic power and status of White Americans with the goal of replacing 'real Americans' in the nation," Nteta explains. "The barrage of messages has paid off as large majorities of Republicans believe that the nation is losing its culture and identity due to the influx of immigrants (64%) and that elected officials are supporting immigration to bring to the nation more obedient voters who will vote for them (70%). With Donald Trump and the GOP making immigration a key issue in the 2024 election it is highly likely that these ideas will continue to circulate and adversely affect efforts to achieve a solution to the issue of undocumented immigration that reflects American values and our identity as an immigrant nation."

"A concerning percentage of Americans endorse the troubling and dangerous views about immigrants expressed by former President Trump on the campaign trail," Rhodes warns. "For example, 22% of Americans agree with Trump that 'immigrants are poisoning the blood of the country,' and 24% endorse his view that 'many immigrants are terrorists.' Over a third believe that elected officials increase immigration to bring in 'obedient' voters (39%) and that millions of these individuals vote illegally in elections (34%). We've found extensive support for these views before, and our new poll shows they aren't going away. Substantial anxiety and fear about immigrants in the public explains why Trump features harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric so prominently in his campaign speeches."

The Prospects of Electoral and Partisan Violence

Finally, the new UMass Amherst Poll also surveyed respondents about their concerns over the prospects of electoral and partsian violence in the lead-up to, and following, the upcoming election - a danger that became reality on July 13 in Butler, Pennsylvania.

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