Crossing Borders: Exploring the Federal Government’s Estimates and Projections of International Migration

The U.S. Census Bureau and other federal agencies produce population estimates and projections that include international migration, a primary component of population change. Earlier this year, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released a new series of population projections that showed a dramatic increase international migration over the past two years. Yet the Census Bureau's most recent data do not show as large an increase as the CBO projections.

Since 2020, there has been a notable shift in international migration flows to and from the United States, especially with the increase in the number of migrants seeking asylum. Accurately measuring these dynamic flows is challenging. In this white paper, we explore the key differences between the international migration components in the population estimates and projections produced by the Census Bureau and other federal agencies.