CAPIS - Capital Institutional Services Inc.

07/17/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 07/17/2024 06:40

CAPIS Morning Note – 7/17/24: Futures Fall On Tough Talk on Tech And Taiwan

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday higher by 0.64% at 5667.20 from Monday higher by 0.28% at 5631.22. The overnight high was hit at 5,6717 at 4:15 p.m. EDT and the low was hit at 5662.75 at 7:10 a.m. EDT. The overnight range is 54 points. The current price is 5666.75 at 7:15 a.m. EDT lower by -50.50 points.

Executive Summary: Welcome to the Donald Trump Era 2.0. The one thing about the Donald Trump Era 1.0 was that off the cuff remarks by him would move markets. This morning comments about Taiwan and the country needing to pay for the U.S. to defend them were made by Trump in a Bloomberg interview last night. Hence the sell-off overnight. Could this be the first down day with a loss greater than -1% since April 30th.
  • 20-Year Bond Auction is held at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Earnings Out After The Close:
  • Beats: FULT +0.39, WAFD +0.18, HWC +0.11, IBKR +0.02, PNFP +0.02, ofnote.
  • Flat: OMC of note.
  • Misses: JBHT -0.16 of note.
  • Yet to Report:

Capital Raises:

  • IPOs For The Week:
  • New IPOs/SPACs launched/News:
  • IPOs Filed/Priced:
    • PET - Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock
  • Secondaries Filed or Priced:
    • CMTL: Filed Form S-1.. Up to 1,435,884 shares of Common Stock underlying the Warrants
  • Notes Priced:
  • Direct Offering:
  • Exchangeable Subordinate Voting Shares:
  • Selling Shareholders of note:
  • Debt/Credit Filing and Notes:
  • Mixed Shelf Offerings:
    • PGC: Form S-3.. $150,000,000 Mixed Shelf
    • USM files $1.0 bln mixed shelf securities offering
  • PIPE:
  • Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
    • OSIS: Prices Upsized $300 Million Convertible Senior Notes Offering
  • Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

Biggest Movers Up & Down After The Close:

  • Movers Up:BE +12.70%,AEHR +10.5%, GTES +6.3%, ORIC +3.9%, FULT +3.7%.
  • Movers Down: FIVE -9.1%, SAVE -5.2%, OMC -3.5%, JBHT -2.8%, PRI -2.1%.

News After The Close :

  • IBKR grows adjusted revs by 21%; customer accounts up 28%.
  • Bloom Energy (BE) announces strategic partnership with CoreWeave to meet the energy demands of the growing AI sector.
  • Primoris Services (PRIM) announces several awards with a combined value of ~ $1.2 billion secured by the Company's Energy Segment.
  • SAVE lowers its Q2 revenue outlook; reduces other targets
  • Former President and Republican Candidate Donald Trump in interview with Bloomberg says that, if he wins, he will allow Fed Chair Jerome Powell to serve out his term, which runs through January 2028. (Bloomberg)

Buybacks or Repurchases: Buybacks should be slow as most companies are in a blackout period as earnings season kicks into gear.

  • None of note.

Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:

  • FIVE CEO Joel Anderson steps down to pursue other interests; Board launches search for permanent CEO.

Dividends Announcements or News:

  • Stocks Ex Div Today: EOG FMX KWR VSEC
  • Stocks Ex Div Tomorrow: GHC ARMK

What's Happening This Morning:Futures S&P 500 -54 NASDAQ 100 -316, Dow Jones -92, Russell 2000 -5.47. Asia is lower ex Australia and Europe is lower this morning.VIX Futures are at 14.55 from 14.30 yesterdaywhile Bonds at 4.18% from 4.173% on the 10-Year. Crude Oil and Brent are higher with Natural Gas higher as well for a second day in a row. Gold higher with Silver and Copper lower. The U.S. Dollar is lower versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $64,719 from $63,709 lower by -0.41% this morning.

Sector Action- (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release): The was definitely some rotation this week given the move into Small Cap.
  • Daily Positive Sectors: Industrials, Materials, Consumer Cyclicals and Financials of note.
  • Daily Negative Sectors: Communication Services of note.
  • One Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical and Financials of note.
  • Three Month Winners: Technology, Utilities, Communication Services, Real Estate, Healthcare, Financials and Consumer Defensive of note.
  • Six Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials and Industrials of note.
  • Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Healthcare, Industrials, and Consumer Cyclical of note.
  • Year to Date Winners: Technology, Communication Services, Financials, Utilities and Healthcare of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (From Chartroom Software - sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

  • Wednesday After the Close:
  • Thursday Before The Open:

Earnings of Note This Morning:

  • Beats: ASML +0.31, SYF +0.20, ELV +0.12, JNJ +0.11, FHN +0.06, CFG +0.04, USB +0.03 of note.
  • Flat: None of note.
  • Misses: None of note.
  • Still to Report: PLD, NTRS, ALLY of note.

Company Earnings Guidance:

  • PositiveGuidance: None of note.
  • NegativeGuidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Huge improvement for NASDAQ and the NYSE.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market(+4% or down more than -4%):

  • Gap Up: BE +14.2%, ACRS +10.4%, AEHR +9.8%, ORIC +8.9%, FTK +8.7%, GTES +8% of note.
  • Gap Down: FIVE -15.9%, ASML -7%, SAVE -6.3%, OMC -4.1%, ANF -3.3%, JBHT -2.6%, DG -2.5%, J -2.5%, RLAY -2.1%of note.

Insider Action: BNED sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.No stocks sees Insider buying withsmart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. "rehashed news". Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

  • 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
  • What You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
  • Stocks making the biggest moves pre-market: NVDA FIVE JBHT (CNBC)
  • Bloomberg Lead Story: Trump Interview. (Bloomberg)
  • Markets Wrap: NASDAQ sinks 1% on trade threats by Trump and Taiwan defense. (Bloomberg)
  • Barron's - NASDAQ Futures dives on tech rotation. (Barron's)
  • Former President Trump in an interview said that Taiwan should pay for its own defense (Bloomberg)
  • President Biden considering using more severe trade restrictions on chip imports from China. (Bloomberg)
  • Bloomberg: The Big Take: The Trump Interview on Taxes, Powell and Taiwan. (Podcast)

Economic:

  • June Housing Starts are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to 1,310,000 from 1,277,000.
  • June Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 p.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.9%.
  • Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

  • The President receives the Daily Briefing at 1:00 p.m. EDT. President Biden is still in Las Vegas, Nevada.
  • President Biden to be interviewed by Univision at 3:15 p.m. EDT.
  • President Biden speaks at the UnidosUS Annual Conference at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
  • President Biden to participate in a campaign event at 6:15 p.m. EDT before heading back to Delaware at 7:50 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Speakers

  • Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin speaks at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller speaks at 9:35 a.m. EDT.
  • The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

M&A Activity and News:

Moving Averages On Major Indexes: Remains at 97% of the moving averages being positive.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

  • Sellside Conferences:
    • Wolfe Research Materials of theFuture Conference
  • Fireside Chat: None of note.
  • Top Shareholder Meetings: ADVM, ATZ, INTX
  • Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ADVM, BIOR, CLRB, FDMT, OPTT, PCYO, RGLD, USEG
  • Update: None of note.
  • R&D Day: None of note.
  • FDA Presentation:
  • Company Event:
  • Industry Meetings or Events:
    • Republican National Convention
    • Prime Day Event
    • ASRS Scientific Meeting
    • Institute of Food Technologists (IFT) Event and Expo
    • NACUFS National Showcase
    • NCMS Technology Showcase

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this "Upgrade/Downgrade" section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting is to make the reader aware of market-moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.