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BTS - Bureau of Transportation Statistics

07/08/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 07/08/2024 21:17

June 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Down 0.3% from the Previous Month and Up 0.7% from the Same Month Last Year

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 0.3% in June from May, after a one-month increase, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From June 2023 to June 2024 the index rose 0.7% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

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Freight Transportation Services Index, June 2021 - June 2024

The level of for-hire freight shipments in June measured by the Freight TSI (138.6) was 2.3% below the all-time high of 141.8 reached in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The May index was revised to 139.0 from 137.8 in last month's release.

BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for June next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The Maypassenger and combined indexesare available on the BTS website. Air freight for June is also a statistical estimate. Since air freight makes up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight estimate included.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis:The Freight TSI decreased in June due to seasonally adjusted decreases in trucking, air freight, and water, while rail carload, rail intermodal and pipeline grew.

The June decrease came in the context of positive results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.6% in June, reflecting increases of 2.8% in utilities, 0.3% in mining, and 0.4% in manufacturing. Housing starts were up 3.0% and Personal Income increased by 0.2%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was down 0.2 points to 48.5, for a third month of contraction in manufacturing. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Although the June Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the May index is now being released. The index increased 0.5% from April to May. Seasonally adjusted transit and air passenger were up, while rail passenger declined.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 -the first month of the pandemic- for thirty-six months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 51st consecutive month.

Trend:The June freight index decrease was the third in four months, leaving the index 0.4% above its level in February 2024. It followed an increase in May, leaving the index 2.3% above its level in April 2024. The index increased 4.1% since August 2021. The June Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 11.4%; the index increased month-over-month in 25 of the 50 months since that low.

For additional historical data, go toTSI data.

Index highs and lows:For-hire freight shipments in June 2024 (138.6) were 45.7% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.1). The June 2024 level was 2.3% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2022 (141.8).

Year to date:For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 0.2% in June compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3).

Long-term trend:For-hire freight shipments are up 1.1% in the five years from June 2019 and are up 15.6% in the 10 years from June 2014 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year:June 2024 for-hire freight shipments were up 0.7% from June 2023 (Tables 4, 5).

2nd quarter changes:The freight TSI fell 1.2% in the 1st quarter, rose 1.0% in the 2nd quarter (Table 6).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. SeeSeasonally-Adjusted Transportation Datafor numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the July 2024 index is scheduled for September 12, 2024.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See astudy of this relationshipusing smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use theFRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. SeeTSI data on FRED.

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, seeTransportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI,Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months

	Freight TSI
Current release	Previous month's release	Percent change
Jun-23	137.6	137.7	-0.07
Jul-23	139.0	139.0	0.00
Aug-23	139.2	139.2	0.00
Sep-23	139.1	139.1	0.00
Oct-23	139.0	139.0	0.00
Nov-23	138.1	138.1	0.00
Dec-23	138.9	138.8	0.07
Jan-24	134.4	134.3	0.07
Feb-24	138.0	138.0	0.00
Mar-24	137.2	137.0	0.15
Apr-24	135.5	135.5	0.00
May-24	139.0	137.8	0.87

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. SeeTransportation Services Indexfor documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since December 2023
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight
Index	Percent change
December	138.9	0.6
January	134.4	-3.2
February	138.0	2.7
March	137.2	-0.6
April	135.5	-1.2
May	139.0	2.6
June	138.6	-0.3

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. SeeTransportation Services Indexfor documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2020-2024

Year	Month of peak	Value at peak	Month of low	Value at low
2019	August	141.4	December	136.1
2020	January	135.8	April	124.3
2021	April	136.9	February	132.7
2022	August	141.8	November	138.0
2023	February	140.2	January	137.4
2024	May	139.0	January	134.4