5 Trends to Watch: 2025 Space & Satellite Law

1. Changing Export Regulations - In October, both the U.S. Department of Commerce and Department of State released long-awaited rulemakings to update export controls for spacecraft. The Department of Commerce rolled out three documents - a final rule related to controls for AUKUS, an interim final rule with changes largely addressing NASA-related programs, and a notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM) for space-related export controls. The State Department's NPRM addresses both USML Category XV (Spacecraft) and Category IV (Launch Vehicles). While the Commerce and State NPRMs were released in conjunction with each other, they are technically not linked rulemakings.
2. Reexamining "Streamlined" Launch Regulations - In 2020, the Federal Aviation Administration overhauled their launch and reentry regulations to create a performance-based, consolidated Part 450. Reactions to the revamped regulations and their efficacy have been mixed, if not outright negative. In mid-November, the FAA officially established an aerospace rulemaking committee (SpARC) to examine potential changes to Part 450. The SpARC is expected to submit a report with any recommended changes to the Part 450 rule by late summer 2025.
3. Starship's Banana - Only 37 days after Flight 5, SpaceX conducted Starship Flight 6 on Nov. 19, a launch attended by President-elect Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz, and Federal Communications Commission Commissioner Brendan Carr, who has since been nominated by Trump to serve as FCC chair in his administration. After placing Starship and precisely one banana in space - the banana was included to serve as a stand-in payload to aid in SpaceX's effort to obtain government approval for deploying more purposeful payloads on future flights - the Super Heavy booster began its return, which ended in an offshore divert rather than attempting capture by the "Mechazilla." SpaceX is expected to launch Starship 25 times in 2025. Bringing this commercial, fully reusable capability online will have an unprecedented impact on U.S. ability to deploy in-space infrastructure and could considerably lower launch costs.
4. Continued focus on the "buy-and-exploit" culture at DoD and Space Force - The Department of Defense's Commercial Space Integration Strategy and the U.S. Space Force Commercial Space Strategy were issued in April 2024. Beyond the strategic guidance they offer, these strategies acknowledge that space is critically important to U.S. national and economic security, and a robust commercial space sector is essential to both. Among other things, these strategies seek to achieve integration of commercial and national security assets prior to a crisis. Such expanded use of commercial space assets will raise "dual use" issues and may increase the potential targeting of commercial space assets in a crisis situation.
5. Trump Administration Expansion of Civil and Commercial Space Capabilities - President-elect Trump's pro-space first term and his nascent relationship with Elon Musk bode well for civil and commercial space activities. In his first term, Trump reestablished the National Space Council and established the U.S. Space Force. Within NASA and the Defense Department we have seen increasing use of Space Act Agreements and Other Transaction Authority agreements. This trend is likely to continue during the next Trump administration, and we are likely to see an emphasis on returning humans to the moon, as well as establishing facilities on the moon and in lunar orbit.

About the authors:

Skip Smith is chair of Greenberg Traurig's Space and Satellite Industry Group, based in the firm's Denver office. He has more than 40 years of experience advising clients on risk management and other issues related to the aerospace industry. Skip handles complex transactional matters and disputes, nationally and internationally. During his Air Force tenure, he held significant roles such as Director of Space Law at Space Command and Chief of Space Law for the Air Force.

Laura Cummings focuses her practice on space law and commercial space regulation, providing legal support to businesses dealing with complex matters pertaining to space, satellite, and telecommunication industries. In her previous role at Astroscale U.S., Laura managed spacecraft licensing for the geostationary Life-Extension Services program, drove spectrum advocacy, and supported export compliance.