Between Earth and Stars: MENA’s Strategic Role in Space Competition

• Commentary
  by Alessandro Gili and Enrico Paolo Gioia

The global race for space leadership is unfolding in the Mediterranean, the Gulf, and across Africa. Rising competition may create new investment opportunities, contracts, and industrial and strategic alliances. However, tensions in the space domain could also hinder the full deployment of the space economy's potential. In recent years, numerous alliances have been formed in the space sector, alongside the emergence of two major competing blocs that largely mirror current international relations dynamics. The Western bloc and the China-led bloc are both focusing their efforts on returning to the Moon as a stepping stone for the first manned mission to Mars.

In the escalating competition for supremacy in space, the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region has emerged as a crucial battleground. MENA countries, recognizing the strategic importance of space technology, have forged new partnerships and investments in space infrastructure amidst the ongoing rivalry between the US and China for space dominance. The space ambitions of MENA Countries, from Saudi Arabia's plans to become a major space power[1] to the United Arab Emirates' Mars mission[2], reflect a broader trend in which space is increasingly seen as both a new arena for geopolitical rivalry and a platform for technological innovation and industrial competitiveness.

Moreover, North African countries view enhanced space capabilities as a way to improve Earth observation services, which can serve government needs while also playing a key role in weather monitoring and boosting the economic prospects of critical sectors such as agriculture. Earth observation, an area where Italy has significant expertise, could be part of a comprehensive strategy for the Wider Mediterranean. Finally, as climate change intensifies, space services and satellites are essential for predicting extreme weather events, combating water scarcity, improving climate adaptation, maintaining infrastructure, and aiding in disaster prediction and relief. Equipping partners with their own capabilities in areas that can positively influence the development-security nexus in the region will, in turn, contribute to greater regional stability.[3]

The US, China and Russian rivalry for space dominance in MENA and beyond

As in global geopolitics and economic relations, two main blocs are emerging in space: Western countries on one side, and China and Russia on the other. These dynamics are primarily outlined in the NASA Artemis Accords, launched in 2019. The program aims to land the next man and the first woman on the Moon by 2026, establish a Lunar Orbital Platform-Gateway, and eventually ensure a permanent human presence on the Moon as a stepping stone to Mars. Since the introduction of the Artemis Accords, the number of signatory countries has steadily increased. In the MENA region, Bahrain, Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates have signed the Accords, along with Angola, Nigeria, and Rwanda from Africa.^[4]

China has also considerably increased its efforts to affirm its leadership in outer space. In 2021, Beijing and Moscow agreed to build an International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) by 2036. This decision marked a milestone in the ambitions of the two countries and testified to the increasing competition with the Western bloc and its Artemis Programme. The ILRS base will be constructed in the 2030s through five planned missions. These are intended to provide for nuclear energy, communications, astronomical observation and other infrastructure for an initially robotic research station that will later host astronauts. A later stage will see ILRS used to test technology and capabilities for a crewed mission to Mars.^[5] This is the context of the recent statement by Yuri Borisov, head of the Russian space agency Roscosmos, in which he said on March 5, that Russia and China are considering the possibility of installing a nuclear power plant on the Moon by 2035^[6]. Reiterating Russia's absolute resolve not to install nuclear weapons in space, he stressed that a nuclear power plant on the Moon could provide enough electricity to power future lunar settlements^[7]. While not explicitly referring to ILRS, a nuclear power plant could evidently also provide power to the already announced Sino-Russian lunar station.

Born as a joint and balanced Chinese-Russian initiative, the ILRS project has rapidly transformed into a China-led programme, especially since the outbreak of Russia's war in Ukraine. The lack of funding and cutting-edge technologies have downgraded Russia to a junior partner, especially after Russia's first lunar lander mission in 47 years (Luna-25) crashed in August because of faulty commands in an onboard computer during a manoeuvre.^[8] Indeed, the fading reputation of Russian space combined with China's increased confidence and developments in its domestic space industry could make a Russian connection less appealing.^[9] In this ambitious scenario, the importance of the ILRS within the broader Chinese strategy is illustrated by the decision to set up the ILRS Cooperation Organisation in April 2023, to institutionalise the programme and attract more partners.^[10]

The emerging division between developed countries and the Global South is reflected in the conflicting dynamics between the IRLS and Artemis. In 2023, several emerging countries joined the China-led Moon programme, including UAE, South Africa and Egypt.^[11] In 2024, Senegal also joined the ILRS.

China is also building partnerships on another key international space project: the Tiangong Space Station. In October 2022, China launched the final module for its space station, which became fully operational. Tiangong is a key geopolitical tool for "science and technological diplomacy", by encouraging countries all around the world to send astronauts and equipment, and conduct experiments in the new station.^[12] The station is even more significant in view of the fact that the International Space Station will be decommissioned at the beginning of the next decade, thereby enhancing the centrality of Tiangong and other new commercial space stations.^[13] Even ESA and many other European countries (including Italy) had signalled their interest in cooperation with the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) and with the activities of the Tiangong space station. However, in January 2023, ESA announced that it would not send its astronauts to China's space station for financial and political reasons, considering the broader strategy of de-risking from China.^[14]

However, as anticipated, Beijing is focusing on the Global South to develop a new "space diplomacy". For example, during the first China-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Summit in 2022, President Xi Jinping announced that "China stands ready to work with GCC countries on remote sensing and communications satellite, space utilization, aerospace infrastructure, and the selection and training of astronauts" and continued affirming that "China welcomes GCC astronauts to its space station for joint missions and space science experiments with their Chinese colleagues. China welcomes GCC countries' participation in payloads cooperation in its aerospace missions and will consider establishing a China-GCC joint centre for lunar and deep space exploration".^[15]

The rapid growth of Chinese space capabilities has contributed to new and enhanced partnerships with countries across the world. Space can thus be a key component in China's efforts to gain relevance in countries deemed central to China's strategic sphere of influence. Evidence of this is the China-Africa Beidou System Cooperation Forum held in Beijing in November 2021, which brought together some 50 representatives of African governments and China's top space policy officials. This forum was organised within the framework of the broader Spatial Information Corridor of the BRI, i.e. the set of projects that specifically include global satellite communications and positioning, primarily through the Chinese Beidou system. In 2018, the China-Arab Beidou Center was established in Tunisia, also to challenge the US-led GPS system.^[16]

Although most of the space infrastructure planned and built abroad is used by China, there is a clear intention to export this technology to countries considered strategic and already benefiting from Belt and Road infrastructure investments. The Spatial Information Corridor and the Digital Silk Road, as well as the infrastructure and related information provided by the constellation of deployed satellites, will also be crucial for monitoring the progress of infrastructure projects financed under the BRI. It will also serve to check the health of already completed infrastructure and intervene with maintenance work if necessary. It remains to be seen whether China's space commitments will be able to bridge the existing gap with the US, and whether China will be capable of building international partnerships as solid as those pursued by the US with the Artemis Accords, with the end goal of creating a space strategy with Chinese characteristics. In the meantime, China's ties with African space programmes are growing ever closer. In July 2023, the China-Africa Cooperation Centre on Satellite Remote Sensing Application was inaugurated, giving China a key role in establishing an Africa-China data-sharing platform and using remote sensing technology to monitor natural resources in coastal zones.^[17]

The evolving African space landscape

Africa is at the core of China's space investments abroad. Since 2005, African countries have spent $4 billion on acquiring and manufacturing satellite technologies, with almost US$1 billion going to China. Even though no African country has yet demonstrated capability in human spaceflight, more than 20 African countries have space programmes, thus fostering a space industry that generated US$19.5 billion in 2022 and a projected turnover of US$22.6 billion in 2026. To date, 15 African countries have launched more than 55 satellites, and 11 other African countries have each begun developing their own satellite.[18] More than 500 companies now operate across the African space value chains. The growth signals increasing confidence and opens new opportunities for space ventures, potentially attracting further investment.[19]

China's role in the African space value chains is evident: half of African countries have bilateral space partnerships with China. Beijing is heavily financing Nigeria's satellite development and has also built a strategic partnership with Ethiopia, which resulted in the development of two satellites (ETRSS-1 and ET-SMART-RSS) and two ground stations.[20] Moreover, Egypt is key to China's space strategy in Africa. In December 2023, Egypt joined the China-led ILRS[21] and China launched the MisrSat-2 satellite.[22] This is part of a technology-transfer project between the Egyptian Space Agency and the Chinese government that provides Egypt with an opportunity to acquire on-the-project experience in satellite design and integration, using facilities available in Egypt, thereby positioning the country as a leading force in aerospace in Africa.[23] Egypt's leading position on the African stage is also illustrated by the African Union's decision to host the new headquarters of the African Space Agency in Cairo.[24]

In early 2023, Djibouti's President announced plans to build the first spaceport in Africa, worth US$1 billion, in cooperation with the Chinese company Hong Kong Aerospace Technology. It will mark a milestone in the development of Africa's space capabilities, while at the same time giving China a vital foothold in the broader African strategy.[25] Moreover, Algeria's space programme is one of the most prominent in Africa, boasting a fleet of six satellites and three observatories. The programme is intended to support economic development and national security by means of a constellation of national satellites aimed at providing Earth-observation, meteorology, and communication services. In June 2023 Algeria and Russia signed an agreement for space exploration and the use of outer space for peaceful purposes.[26] However, Algeria is also building ties with Western countries. The most significant of these takes the form of a Memorandum of Understanding between the Algerian Space Agency (ASAL) and the Italian Space Agency (ASI), which aims to "establish a framework of cooperation in the field of space exploration, Earth observation, space technologies and training, in order to implement projects of mutual interest".[27]

As mentioned earlier, decreasing launch costs, and increasing access to space technologies are opening the new space race to smaller nations and to an increasing number or small and medium-sized enterprises, creating a multi-faceted space ecosystem also in the Mediterranean and in the Gulf.

Gulf Nations' investments in space

In the Gulf, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are emerging as prominent space powers. Riyadh, after establishing the Saudi Space Commission in 2018 to stimulate space-related research and industrial activities, earmarked US$2.1 billion by 2030 to support its space industry within the framework of the Saudi Vision 2030.[28] In 2022, the country launched a programme to send astronauts into space, which culminated in 2023 when a private mission led by Axiom Space and sponsored by the Saudi government carried two Saudi astronauts to the ISS, one of whom - a stem cell researcher - was the world's first Arab female astronaut.[29] Moreover, in 2023 the Saudi Space Commission was transformed into the Saudi Space Agency, highlighting the Kingdom's commitment to the space sector and exploration activities. Immediately after its creation, numerous meetings with Chinese government agencies and businesses were held to discuss enhanced cooperation and collaborations in the fields of technology, industry, and space exploration.[30]

The second space powerhouse in the Gulf is the United Arab Emirates. In 2019 the country released its National Space Strategy 2030 and since then it has opened four space research and development centres, established national space laws and regulations, and launched its own Hope Probe, which orbited Mars in 2021, making the UAE the sixth country globally and the first in the Arab world to reach the planet. The United Arab Emirates is expanding its capabilities in exploration and satellite imaging, and in 2022 it set up an US$817m fund to support cooperation between international and Emirati companies in space-sector engineering, sciences and research applications, with a near-term goal of developing and launching a constellation of advanced imaging satellites.[31] Moreover, in May 2023 the United Arab Emirates announced its plans for the Emirates Mission to the Asteroid Belt.[32] The project aims to launch a spacecraft in 2028 to explore seven asteroids, culminating in a landing on a rare "red" asteroid named Justitia. The mission, named MBR Explorer after Dubai's ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, marks a significant milestone for the UAE Space Agency and could provide insights into the origin of Earth's water and support future resource extraction from asteroids.[33] In January 2024, the country announced that it will develop an airlock module for the lunar Gateway, thus helping to complete the design of the lunar space station, while enhancing UAE's role in the NASA-led Artemis lunar exploration effort.[34] The announcement partly rebalances the UAE's decision to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with China's Deep Space Exploration Laboratory in November, aimed at fostering cooperation on ILRS.[35]

Catching up: The comeback of Europe and Italy in MENA space affairs?

Europe is striving to catch up with other major space powers and reclaim its role in space relations with MENA countries. Following the success of Ariane 6, which has restored the EU's autonomous access to space, the EU now has strong opportunities for technological and industrial cooperation with MENA partners, allowing it to regain competitiveness lost to other global players.

Against this backdrop, the G7 Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) and the EU Global Gateway serve as valuable tools to enhance opportunities for space cooperation between the two shores. Under the EU-Africa Global Gateway Investment Package, the EU is committed to intensifying cooperation with partner countries to strengthen science, technology, and innovation capacities, upgrade research and innovation facilities, bolster innovation ecosystems, and expand research collaboration. The Investment Package will support the use of new space technologies and facilitate knowledge transfer in Africa by leveraging EU space programs and applications.[36]

In this context of great power competition, Italy is expanding its regional influence and progressively establishing itself as a trusted partner in space exploration and technology for countries in the Middle East and North Africa. This commitment was underscored by the Italy-Africa Space Conference held in Rome in July 2024, as well as by the recent Memoranda of Understanding with regional partner countries.

The Italy-Africa Conference on Space, hosted by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation in Rome in July 2024, underscored Italy's growing commitment to advancing cooperation in space research and technology across the African continent. The conference, which was opened by Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani, brought together political leaders, business executives, and representatives from several African countries. In addition to fostering technological innovation and capacity building, the discussions focused on leveraging space technologies to tackle global challenges, including climate change.[37]

Ophelia Mensah Hayford, Ghana's Minister of Environment, Science, Technology, and Innovation, emphasized the transformative power of global collaboration in achieving sustainable development.[38] To showcase the continent's growing ambitions in the space sector, she highlighted Ghana's efforts to develop advanced space infrastructure, including plans for the world's largest telescope.[39]

Meanwhile, Adolfo Urso, the Italian Minister for Enterprises and Made in Italy, reaffirmed Italy's commitment to acting as a liaison between the European Space Agency and the emerging African Space Agency. He also announced that, in a few years, the Luigi Broglio Space Centre in Malindi, Kenya, will begin relaunching Earth observation satellites.[40] On October 1st, Italy and Kenya agreed to accelerate the implementation of their bilateral agreement regarding the Luigi Broglio Space Centre, which will strengthen Kenya's strategic role as a hub for future satellite launch operations in Africa.[41]

Against this backdrop, Italy's partnerships with Algeria and Egypt are crucial to enhancing its growing influence in the MENA space industry. These collaborations, formalized through Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs), highlight Italy's commitment to fostering regional innovation and capacity building.

To strengthen long-term investments and collaborations between the Italian Space Agency (ASI) and the Egyptian Space Agency (EgSA), a Memorandum of Understanding was signed with Egypt in April 2024 during a State visit. Beyond broader objectives such as enhancing space science and technology capabilities, this strategic agreement facilitates joint projects in Earth observation, climate monitoring, and sustainable development applications. It also prioritizes capacity-building programs, specialized training initiatives, and collaborative space projects involving other Egyptian and Italian organizations.[42]

Similarly, the January 2023 Memorandum of Understanding with Algeria highlights a commitment to fostering collaborative efforts in space exploration and related technologies. This five-year agreement lays a strong foundation for cooperation in Earth observation, space technology development, and training initiatives. The partnership, supported by high-level diplomatic engagements, includes research collaborations, knowledge sharing, and joint workshops and seminars to advance shared goals. Through this alliance, the Algerian Space Agency (ASAL) and the Italian Space Agency (ASI) aim to drive mutual improvements in infrastructure and capacity building.[43]

In 2022, Italy and Saudi Arabia signed a five-year Memorandum of Understanding to enhance collaboration on projects of mutual interest, including Earth observation, deep space communication technologies, scientific missions, and human exploration programs, as well as joint initiatives in satellite development and training.[44]

Through these agreements, Italy established itself as a leader in promoting global cooperation in space sciences while strengthening its bilateral relations with MENA countries. Italy's commitment to advancing the region's space goals and integrating African expertise into international programs is further demonstrated by these initiatives. They complement Italy's broader support for the African Space Agency (AfSA), headquartered in Egypt.

Finally, through the Mattei Plan, the Italian government has also prioritized space cooperation, focusing on developing national space programs in African countries such as Tunisia and Morocco. These initiatives are designed to promote regional integration and provide local economies with advanced space technology to address challenges such as sustainable agriculture, water resource management, and climate change. In January 2024, the Partnership for Aerospace was launched under the Mattei Plan, aiming to establish a four-year collaboration between Italy and African states, with a particular focus on the space economy.[45]

Italy's role as a reliable partner for MENA countries will be further strengthened by the substantial resources allocated to space through both national and European funds, as well as the introduction of the first Italian (and European) national space law, pending common European legislation. The Italian Recovery and Resilience Plan, combined with national and ESA funds, will provide up to 7.2 billion euros through 2026 to develop a competitive space economy value chain and foster regional and international partnerships. These resources will also solidify Italy's position as a leading player in European and global space technology and industry, enabling it to better navigate the increasing international competition.[46] Furthermore, the upcoming return of Avio in early December - after a two-year hiatus - to operate the new VEGA C rocket, alongside Ariane 6, will bolster both Italy's and Europe's role as a space technology and industrial powerhouse.[47] Above all, VEGA C will enhance Italy's credibility as a key player in the European and global space ecosystems, reinforcing the country's strategic goal of building a new space diplomacy.[48]

Other European countries are playing a key role in developing Southern Mediterranean and African space capabilities. During President Macron's state visit to Morocco in late October 2024, Paris and Rabat (represented by the Moroccan company Panafsat and Thales Alenia Space) signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) to develop a Moroccan satellite communications system. This system will offer very high-throughput internet services (VHTS) to 26 African countries, helping to bridge the digital divide and enhance economic prospects, particularly in remote areas.[49]

In this context of growing geopolitical and economic tensions, it is essential to coordinate the individual national initiatives of European countries and those at the EU level to avoid overlap and competition between European states that could benefit external actors. Only through such coordination, including partnerships with the Mediterranean, the Gulf, and Africa, will it be possible to strengthen Europe's strategic autonomy, even in the space sector. This collaborative approach is key to ensuring Europe's long-term security and global influence.

[1] J. Rainbow, Saudi Arabia plans space industry transformation, SpaceNews, 19 September 2024.
[2] See Emirates Mars Mission, 2024.
[3] See K. Muti, Reach for the Stars: Bridging Italy's Potential in Space with Its Foreign and Security Policy, IAI Commentaries, 16 January 2023.
[4] See NASA, "Artemis Plan. NASA's Lunar Exploration Program Overview", September 2020. See also A. Harvey and A. Mann, "NASA's Artemis program: Everything you need to know", SpaceNews, 12 December 2022.
[5] A. Jones, "China attracts moon base partners, outlines project timelines", SpaceNews, 19 June 2023.
[6] Bloomberg News, "Russia Says Working With China for Lunar Nuclear Power Plant", 5 March 2024.
[7] Reuters, "Russia says it is considering putting a nuclear power plant on the moon with China", 5 March 2024.
[8] J. Foust, "Russia blames Luna-25 crash on computer glitch", SpaceNews, 5 October 2023.
[9] L. Xin, "Has China turned away from Russia in joint race to the moon?", South China Morning Post, 7 October 2023.
[10] A. Jones, China to establish organization to coordinate international moon base, Space News, 28 April 2023.
[11] R. Woo, "Partner nations on China's lunar research station programme", Reuters, 26 October 2023.
[12] S. Nasir, "China releases first images of its completed Tiangong space station", The National News, 30 November 2023.
[13] E. Howell, "The ISS just turned 25, and NASA is getting ready for the end", Space.com, 7 December
2023
[14] A. Jones, "ESA is no longer planning to send astronauts to China's Tiangong space station", SpaceNews, 25 January 2023.
[15] A. Jones, "China looks to build space partnerships with Gulf nations", SpaceNews, 30 December 2022.
[16] "Why BeiDou Navigation Satellite System Centre in Tunisia is the gateway for China/Arab space cooperation", Space in Africa, 30 April 2019.
[17] M. Iderawumi, "The China-Africa Cooperation Centre on Satellite Remote Sensing Application Takes Off", Africa News, 6 July 2023. See also "Espi Insights. Space Sector Watch", European Space Policy institute (ESPI), Issue 40, July 2023.
[18] A. Adetola, African Space Industry Annual Report, 2023 Edition, Space in Africa, 28 August 2023.
[19] J. Faleti, Africa's Space Industry Valued at USD 22.64 Billion, Space Watch Global, 2 October 2024.
[20] J.M. Klinger and T.I. Oniosun, "China's Space Collaboration with Africa: Implications and Recommendations for the United States", United States Institute of Peace, September 2023.
[21] M. Iderawumi, "Egypt Joins China-led International Lunar Research Station Initiative", Space in Africa, 8 December 2023.
[22] "Egypt puts into orbit first domestically made EgyptSat-2 satellite", The North Africa Post, 5 December 2023.
[23] D. Faboaede, "Egypt Launches MisrSat-2", Space in Africa, 4 December 2023.
[24] G. Mohamed, "Egyptian parliament approves hosting headquarters of the African Space Agency", Arab News, 21 June 2023.
[25] M. Douet, "Djibouti announces construction of first spaceport in Africa", Le Monde, 20 February 2023.
[26] M. Iderawumi, "Algeria and Russia Sign Government Agreement for Peaceful Space Cooperation", Space in Africa, 26 June 2023.
[27] Italian Space Agency (ISA), Memorandum of understanding signed between Italy and Algeria for cooperation in space activities for peaceful purposes, 23 January 2023.
[28] M. Rashad, "Saudi Arabia plans $2 billion boost for space programme by 2030", Reuters, 28 October 2020.
[29] "First Saudi astronauts to blast off in private mission to ISS", Al Jazeera, 21 May 2023.
[30] "Saudi Space Agency discusses cooperation with Chinese agencies and businesses", Arab News, 7 July 2023.
[31] "Gulf countries look to space to harness scientific and commercial opportunities", Oxford Business Group, 22 August 2023.
[32] Government of Dubai, Media Office, Mohammed bin Rashid: The Emirates Mission to the Asteroid Belt is a significant scientific mission, 29 May 2023.
[33] N. El Hajj, "UAE announces groundbreaking mission to asteroid belt, seeking clues to life's origins", Associated Press, 29 May 2023.
[34] J. Foust, "UAE to build airlock for lunar Gateway", SpaceNews, 7 January 2024.
[35] A. Jones, Emirati university signs up to China's moon base project, Space News, 20 November 2023.
[36] European Commission, Global Gateway, EU-Africa: Global Gateway Investment Package, November 2022.
[37] ASI, "Conferenza sullo spazio Italia.Africa", 16 July 2024. Available at https://www.asi.it/2024/07/conferenza-sullo-spazio-italia-africa/
[38] Mesti News, "Strengthening Collaborations in Space: MESTI at the Italy-Africa Heads of Space Agencies Conference", 19 July 2024.
[39] By Keith Cooper, "SKA Observatory (SKAO): A guide to the soon-to-be largest radio telescopes in the world",Space.com, February 9, 2023.
[40] Samuel Nyangi, "Italy's Growing Influence in Africa's Space Sector", Space in Africa, 22 October 2024.
[41] ESPI, Italy Stregthens International Partnerships, ESPI Insights, Issue 53, October 2024.
[42] Ayooluwa Adetola, "Egypt Signs MoU for Long-Term Space Investments and Partnerships with Italy", Space in Africa, 23 April 2024.
[43] Rorisang Moyo, "Algeria and Italy Sign Space Cooperation Agreement", Space in Africa, 24 January 2023.
[44] F. Bongarrà, Saudi, Italian space agencies sign MoU, Arab News, 27 June 2022.
[45] P. Marelli, Piano Mattei, al via partenariato per l'aerospazio, SpaceEconomy360, 11 January 2024.
[46] Il Sole 24 Ore, Aerospazio: Urso, settore del futuro Made in Italy, pilastro Piano Mattei, 12 September 2024
[47] S. Piccin, Fissata la data del ritorno al volo di Vega C, Astrospace, 10 October 2024.
[48] See T. Stickings, Italy turns to "space diplomacy" in push for alliance with Africa, The National, 15 July 2024.
[49] S. Nyangi, France and Morocco Partner to Develop Pan-African Satellite Communication System, Space in Africa, 29 October 2024.

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