What’s Up and Coming in Air Travel? Get the Full Forecast

Insights, impacts, and advice on air travel. You'll find it all in our Air Monitor 2025. The in-depth report gathers global fare forecasts, sourcing strategies, and major trends in the airline industry. There's no need to scour the internet to find out what to expect in air travel. The air specialists at Amex GBT Consulting did the research and crunched the data, providing you with an info hub of key takeaways to guide your planning. Discover:

What's driving an increase in airline capacity

Airlines are shifting to narrower aircraft that can accommodate more travelers and maintain frequent departure times. Despite more frequent flights, you may find popular routes unavailable.

The factors influencing ticket prices

New contracts. Many of the labor disputes in the past were resolved with new contracts. What are the impacts? New contracts can lead to greater operational costs that may carry over to higher ticket prices. The Air Monitor covers labor settlements in more detail and reports on government assistance to address pilot shortages.

International conflicts. Geopolitical tensions can pump up fuel prices. And since aircraft fuel is the biggest operational expense for airlines, you may find the rise in fuel prices will impact ticket prices.

Airline surcharges. You may remember seeing YQ on your plane ticket. It's the code that typically refers to an added fee charged by airlines for fuel. Although in 2025, surcharges will involve costs in other areas like the Global Distribution System and environmental costs.

The word on New Distribution Capability (NDC)

As more airlines offer NDC content, you can expect to see pricing strategies that allow airlines to offer more price points and adjust airfares based on factors like supply and demand, competitor airfares, and willingness to pay. The Air Monitor describes airline pricing in more depth, including changes we may see over time, like an end-to-end trip that's booked seamlessly without the need for an e-ticket.

Addressing environmental commitments

With many companies aiming to reach emission-reduction targets by 2030, the Air Monitor underscores sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) as an effective way to mitigate carbon emissions. Avelia is a blockchain, book-and-claim solution that provides an opportunity to invest in SAF and support your company's sustainability targets. In the Monitor, you'll find out how Avelia has contributed to the aviation fuel network since it launched in June 2022.

Sourcing strategies in a changing landscape

Because of increases in operating costs, airlines are taking a tougher stand in negotiations. You'll find discounts harder to get than they were in the past. Given that stance, how should you approach airlines? Amex GBT Consulting can help. The team outlines five results-focused strategies:

1. Decide on the factors you value most

With airlines less willing to provide discounts, our air specialists share words of advice: decide what has the greatest value for your travel program. Are there add-ons or amenities that are important to your travelers? Then see if you're able and willing to drive loyalty to an airline in return for that value.

2. Steer the conversation to reflect your needs

Once you've determined your desired offer, communicate clearly to the airline what you need and what you can manage in your travel program. Whatever offer you ask for, make sure it benefits your program for the long-term.

3. Use data to your advantage

Data provides negotiating strength. With fixed fares harder to get than in the past, it's best to have the numbers at your fingertips when you head into talks with airlines. That way you can prove you have the spend to back up your volume commitment.

4. Choose the right loyalty program for travelers

Many airlines are looking to win over travelers with loyalty programs. Our air specialists recommend weighing the various options in airline loyalty programs and communicating your choice to travelers to drive compliance.

5. Focus on the total ticket price

While surcharges are considered extra fees, they influence the total price of an airline ticket. In negotiations, ask the airline to account for every dollar you spend with them, including surcharges.

Smart tactics for smaller travel programs

Our air specialists have simple yet strong advice for companies with smaller air spend. They recommend reviewing your contract with airlines to assess your discount and joining an airline's loyalty program that awards your company with loyalty points. If your company has an online booking tool, but no one in place to monitor it, consider how a travel management partner can help:

• Save on costs with pre-negotiated rates.
• Signal the best booking options to travelers.
• Set up an approval process for international trips.
• Integrate expenses in travel and entertainment.

To squeeze the most value out of your travel program, you'll need to consider airfares. Will fares rise or fall? Check out the Air Monitor for predictions on rates in regions throughout the world. And find out where you're most likely to find the greatest rate changes from 2024 to 2025. Start exploring.