Frontex Releases Strategic Risk Analysis 2024

Frontex, the European Border and Coast Guard Agency, released its Strategic Risk Analysis 2024, a comprehensive assessment of the evolving threats and challenges facing European Integrated Border Management (EIBM) over the next decade.

The report provides a detailed analysis of the multifaceted risks that will shape the future of our borders, including migration, cross-border crime, terrorism, and hybrid threats. It emphasises the need for a proactive and adaptive approach to border management that is based on intelligence-led policing, international cooperation, and technological innovation.

Key Findings from the Report:

• Geopolitical and security conflicts will remain a major driver of migration and refugee flows. The ongoing wars and instability in the EU's neighbourhood, coupled with the potential for new security crises, will continue to exert significant pressure on borders.
• Migratory pressures are expected to increase, requiring substantial improvements in border management capabilities. The report highlights the need for enhanced crisis preparedness, more resilient infrastructure, and improved training for border personnel.
• Cross-border crime will continue to evolve, with technological advancements enabling new and sophisticated methods. Smuggling networks are likely to adapt their operations to exploit vulnerabilities in border security and leverage emerging technologies.
• Hybrid threats pose a growing challenge to European security, necessitating enhanced preparedness and resilience. State and non-state actors may employ a combination of conventional and unconventional tactics to undermine European interests and destabilise the region.
• International cooperation and information sharing are essential for addressing complex border challenges. The report emphasises the importance of strengthening partnerships with countries of origin, transit, and destination to address the root causes of migration and dismantle criminal networks.

The Strategic Risk Analysis 2024 provides valuable insights for policymakers, law enforcement agencies, and other stakeholders involved in border management. By understanding the emerging threats and opportunities, we can develop effective strategies to safeguard our borders and protect our shared values.

Read the full report here.