Preparing for 2025: A look at higher ed in a second Trump term

From student loan relief to immigration policy, endowment taxes and university accreditation, the next four years of a Trump administration are looking grim for higher education. During a Dec. 3 webinar, AFT Higher Education Assistant Director Nicole Hochsprung led participants through what we might expect, and also encouraged participants to continue engaging their membership, bargaining strong contracts and working for the public good even-and especially-in the face of change.

There are a few things that could happen before the new administration takes office. During the lame-duck period, higher education advocates are hoping President Biden will secure as much government funding for public colleges and universities as possible; issue a group discharge of student loan debt for borrowers who were scammed by irresponsible for-profit colleges; issue new guidance on online higher education; and ensure education-related agencies publish current data so it can be tracked moving forward. There is also a hope that Biden will be able to secure friendly appointments on the National Labor Relations Board, which makes decisions regarding whether graduate workers, among others, can unionize.

Once Trump is in office, higher ed experts expect his administration to follow some form of the Project 2025 playlist. That means banning public employee labor unions; eliminating the Department of Education; eliminating public student loan forgiveness; imposing federal regulations on the accreditation process (think granting accreditation only for universities that teach approved content); eliminating anything diversity-, equity- or inclusion-related; halting Title IX investigations; and requiring research to serve the national interests and be aligned with conservative principles.

Breaking it down

During the webinar, participants examined these possibilities in some detail. Among the top takeaways were how, exactly, the Department of Education could be dismantled. It would take the cooperation of Congress, for one thing. Meanwhile, we can expect the next iteration of the department to focus on career and technical education-an approach the AFT supports, though not at the expense of liberal arts education-and a host of changes to policies associated with the department.

Look for short-term Pell Grants-those are grants available to the most low-income college students-that would cover short-term certification and technical degrees, expanding the possibility that for-profit fly-by-nights or online-only programs could grab that federal aid to build their programs. There has also been a proposal that colleges pay back some of the Pell Grants their students receive, a disincentive that could severely harm the Pell program.

There could be loosened regulations, or none at all, regarding those for-profit colleges, too, many of which have delivered poor-quality services while emptying students' bank accounts and driving up their student debt.

Accreditation could be another target of a Trump administration: Possibilities include certifying unqualified organizations as accreditors, splintering efforts by requiring that colleges be accredited by a different accreditor every 10 years and inserting ideologically motivated requirements into the accreditation process.

Diversity, equity and inclusion programs are sure to take a hit-they are already disappearing as universities anticipate cuts in their funding if they don't comply to demands from conservative states. The Department of Education's Office for Civil Rights is a likely target for elimination; Title IX rules, which protect from sex-based discrimination and include language around sexual harassment and abuse, are likely to change; and free speech on campus could be scrutinized in new and harmful ways.

Student loan relief is likely to become more elusive: Public Service Loan Forgiveness and income-based repayment programs could be eliminated or limited. Staff for processing loan relief could be cut, making it difficult to process the necessary paperwork. And the College Cost Reduction Act, which limits financial aid to no more than the national median cost of college could keep thousands of students from attending colleges in areas where the cost of living is high.

Even with these grim predictions, Hochsprung held out some hope. The last time Trump was elected, for example, interest in unions rose-the prospect of oppressive policy created an appetite for the power of solidarity to fight back. This is an especially important point as the new administration could pit one sector against another in its attempt to corporatize education-job skills over liberal arts, part-time faculty against full-time, two-year institutions against four-years, privates against publics.

Ultimately, talking to members, moving policy and bargaining good contracts will play an enormous role in keeping higher education and its unions afloat, said Hochsprung. These aims dovetail with the AFT's Real Solutions for Higher Education campaign and its three pillars: fighting for increased investment in higher education, defending campus free speech and academic freedom, and improving job security and ending contingent employment for academic workers.

[Virginia Myers, Photo credit: sharply_done / E+ / Getty Images]

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