Oct. 3, 2024 | By Emily Mercer | Contact media relations

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The U.S. power grid has been called one of the greatest-and largest-engineering marvels of the 20th century. Made up of more than half a million miles of transmission lines, it delivers power to 160 million customers every day.

But now, the nation's electric grid will have to grow even larger to enable an affordable, sustainable, and reliable energy future.

"Our power system is evolving rapidly," said David Palchak, principal investigator of the National Transmission Planning Study (NTP Study). "The most cost-effective solutions to accommodate this change involve a significant expansion of the transmission system-potentially doubling in size or more by 2050."

The Rising Importance of Transmission in the Clean Energy Era

Over the past decade, the rate of adding new transmission lines to the U.S. grid has dramatically slowed. In contrast, electricity demand is steadily increasing as data-center energy demand rises and the nation ramps up efforts to decarbonize the energy sector by powering electric vehicles, heat pumps, and more with renewable resources.

Unlike fossil power plants that are typically located near areas with a lot of electricity demand, the nation's most abundant, low-cost renewable energy resources are far from the highest energy demand-calling for more long-distance transmission lines.

On top of that, recent extreme weather events have highlighted the importance of strong power grid connections with neighboring regions.

These converging factors have made transmission a major focus of the clean energy transition. But planners and developers need a better understanding of how the nation's current transmission system must evolve to break free of this, well, gridlock.

A First-of-Its-Kind Study To Energize Transmission Planning

The multiyear NTP Study was led by the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Grid Deployment Office in partnership with DOE's National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. The study identifies transmission solutions that can help planners and developers revamp the U.S. power grid to support the next generation of transmission needs and provide broadscale benefits to electric customers.

The NTP Study examined the nation's large and complex transmission system through innovative methods including several interlinked models and state-of-the-art practices. A diverse stakeholder group-including industry experts, decision makers, Tribes, and regional representatives-provided extensive input throughout the study to ensure it was comprehensive, relevant, and actionable. This holistic approach enabled expansive insights about large-scale transmission improvement options across the nation-and at the level of detail needed for rigorous planning.

With the key principles of least-cost planning and power system reliability, the researchers modeled nearly 100 future scenarios through 2050 to examine uncertainties and identify robust regional and interregional transmission opportunities.

"Across all the different scenarios of the U.S. power system we looked at, expanding transmission-sometimes significantly-is a win-win-win," NREL Senior Researcher Trieu Mai said. "We see major cost savings, substantial decarbonization, and a reliable power grid."

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