Water + Weather for July 2024

Transcript

Dr. Mark Wentzel - Hydrologist, Texas Water Development Board

Hi everyone, and welcome to the Texas Water Department Board's latest Water and Weather report. I'm Dr. Mark Wentzel, a hydrologist in the Surface Water Division here at the agency. And today, we'll be taking a look at conditions for our state at the end of July. Let's take a look at some of the big water and weather headlines.

July was wetter and cooler than normal, but conditions did vary across the state. At the end of July, 20 percent of the state was in drought, down five percentage points from the end of June, and the lowest extent of drought since October 2021. Statewide, storage in our water supply reservoirs was 77 percent of capacity, about six percentage points below normal but a significant improvement from last year. In the next few months, drought is expected to expand in the Panhandle and north central Texas.

Let's take a closer look at temperature and precipitation. On these maps, we're looking at both parameters relative to what is considered normal for July. From a water supply perspective, reds, oranges, and yellows mean trouble on both maps. They show areas with above-average temperature on the left and below-average precipitation on the right. July temperatures were at least one degree cooler-than-normal for most of the eastern half of the state, as well as parts of Central Texas and the Panhandle. Precipitation varied considerably, with large areas of Central and East Texas getting twice their normal rainfall, while parts of West Texas and the Panhandle got less than 25 percent of normal.

The Drought Monitor map for conditions as of July 30 shows 20 percent of the state in drought-the tan, orange, and red colors-the lowest extent of drought in our state since October 2021. Drought contracted five percentage points from the end of June, making this month the sixth best July for drought improvement in the last 25 years.

And July was also favorable for our statewide water supplies. The dark line on this chart shows how storage in our water supply reservoirs this year compares to minimum, maximum, and median values for the day of the year for data going back to 1990. Also displayed are lighter lines that show how we did in 2023 and 2022 and a red line that shows how we did in 2011. Statewide surface water supplies ended July at 77.2 percent of capacity, down only four-tenths of a percentage point from the end of June. It's a bit unusual to see a decline that small this time of year. Why? Usually, this is the time of year when reservoir inflows decline. Evaporation losses go up and we start tapping into our reservoirs to meet seasonal demands, causing a steep decline in statewide storage. This year, cooler temperatures and favorable rainfall in July helped stave off the onset of the typical summer decline for at least one more month. As a result, our statewide storage is now four percentage points more than a year ago but still more than six percentage points lower than normal for this time of year.

What can we expect over the next few months? Unfortunately, the good news might be over for a while. Here's the latest seasonal drought outlook from the National Weather Service for conditions through the end of October. During that time, they expect no more drought removal in our state and even a little expansion in the eastern panhandle and the northwest corner of north central Texas. On top of that, La Niña conditions, above-average sea surface temperatures in the eastern equatorial Pacific, are expected to be in place by October and persist into the new year. Those conditions typically bring warmer and drier-than-normal winters to Texas.

Bottom line, this summer may not put as much hurt on Texas as the summers of 2022 and '23, but impacted areas may not see much recovery until next spring. That concludes our report. Until next time, I hope you all stay healthy and safe.

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