New UMass Amherst Poll Finds Harris with Three-Point Lead Nationally Over Trump

"Americans have pretty positive views of Kamala Harris," Rhodes says. "In head-to-head comparisons with Trump, Harris is viewed as more compassionate, likable and energetic, as well as more moderate, intelligent and hard-working. However, Trump is perceived as more experienced, strong and patriotic. What's going on? It could be that, because Harris is not well-known among many Americans, they are giving her the benefit of the doubt, and projecting positive characteristics onto her. From this perspective, Trump's reputation is a hindrance - people know him well, and many don't like at least some of his qualities. There also appears to be some gendered stereotyping going on: Harris receives high marks for qualities that are stereotypically 'female' - compassionate and likeable - while Trump is favored on qualities that are gendered as 'male' - like experienced, strong and patriotic."

Looking Ahead - Harris' VP Pick, Third-Party Spoilers and What's at Stake?

With Harris making her selection for running mate this week, the new UMass Poll asked respondents their views of who would make the best choice among the names most frequently mentioned since Biden stepped aside and endorsed his own VP on July 21.

"While Democratic voters may not know who they want Kamala Harris to select as her vice president and running mate, they are relatively clear on what they want to see in a candidate," Nteta says. "Democrats prefer a man over a woman, a white candidate rather than a person of color, a Christian rather than a Jewish candidate, a straight candidate more than a LGBTQ+ candidate, and for the candidate to be from a swing state more so than a red or blue state. It's close, but Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly seems to 'fit the suit' and is seemingly what Democratic voters are looking for in a VP candidate."

"Democratic voters seem to feel Harris's running mate should be a white man from a swing state, but there is no clear collective favorite and the individuals under consideration are generally not especially well known," Theodoridis says. "This means that, given the names that have been discussed, her choice is unlikely to leave many Democrats disappointed. Her veep nominee will enter the campaign as something of a tabula rasa, and a race will commence between the Harris and Trump camps to define the pick."

As for the potential impact of a third-party candidate this November, the new UMass Poll shows total support for the strongest of the possible spoilers, Robert Kennedy Jr., and others decreasing since January, but Nteta still says they may still play a factor in the election's outcome.

"In what is likely going to be another close election, eyes are turning to the role that third-party candidates like independent Robert Kennedy Jr. may play in November's presidential election," Nteta says. "Our results suggest that Kennedy's presence in the race continues to take potential votes from former President Trump, and thus it is no surprise that Trump has reportedly asked Kennedy to drop out of race and endorse his candidacy. With Kennedy likely to remain in the presidential contest, the nation may see a Kennedy once again playing a prominent role in placing a Democrat in the White House."

La Raja agrees, but with caveats, saying that "Harris may benefit if Kennedy stays in the race - we see slightly more Kennedy voters preferring Trump. But other third-party candidates may hurt Harris if they stay in the race. This dynamic could change as the election approaches, with more left leaning voters choosing to vote for the Democrat, Harris, rather than another party on the left."

Ultimately, La Raja says that voters see Nov. 5 as a "high stakes election."

"Close to nine in 10 of them said the 2024 election is extremely or very important for the future of the nation," he says. "In a polarized nation, many voters also see this election as critical for particular groups of Americans who feel threatened by either party winning. Sixty-nine percent say the election results are extremely or very important for the future of women, and 66% say the same about people of color. On the other side of the partisan divide, 49% say it is extremely or very important for the future of Christians, while 43% say the same about White people. And, ultimately, majorities of voters in both major parties are very enthusiastic about voting. For these reasons we expect a robust turnout from them."

Methodology

This University of Massachusetts Amherst Poll of 1,000 respondents nationally was conducted by YouGov July 29-Aug. 1. YouGov interviewed 1,123 total respondents who were then matched down to a sample of 1,000 to produce the final dataset. The respondents were matched to a sampling frame on gender, age, race and education. The sampling frame is a politically representative "modeled frame" of U.S. adults, based upon the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote.

The matched cases were weighted to the sampling frame using propensity scores. The matched cases and the frame were combined, and a logistic regression was estimated for inclusion in the frame. The propensity score function included age, gender, race/ethnicity, years of education, region and home ownership. The propensity scores were grouped into deciles of the estimated propensity score in the frame and post-stratified according to these deciles.

The weights were then post-stratified on region (4-categories), 2020 presidential vote choice, as well as a four-way stratification of gender, age (4-categories), race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), and a two-way stratification of race (4-categories) and education (4-categories), to produce the final weight.

The margin of error of this poll is 3.8%.

Topline results and crosstabs for the poll can be found at www.umass.edu/poll

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