Indian Ocean Defense and Security Conference Panel 1: AUKUS and security in the Indian Ocean

Rob Scott, Moderator

Good morning, everyone. Great to be here. The first panel of this conference promising to be a very interesting discussion I hope, I just like to ask our three panelists if they wouldn't mind just introducing themselves a little bit and opening statement. Over to you, please.

Vice Adm. Mark Hammond, Chief of Navy, Royal Australian Navy

Good morning, all, Vice Admiral Mark Hammond, Chief of Navy, Australia, what a great pleasure to be here at such an important conference in such an important location when it comes to the national security of our nation. It is an important time to be having these conversations, it is great to see the National Literacy with maritime security affairs slowly increasing. And I hope this conference provides a significant contribution to doing that. We need to talk about maritime security issues, we need to talk about the events at sea which shape - have shaped the history of this nation - and will shape the future security environment for this nation. So thank you very much, pleasure to be here, and great to be here with such great friends.

Adm. Sir Ben Key, First Sea Lord, Royal Navy

Admiral Ben Key, I'm the Royal Navy's First Sea Lord, and it is a real privilege to be here in Perth to join this important event. A shame to say that in nearly 40 years of services was my first visit to HMAS Stirling yesterday. But it felt really important opportunity to come and see the progress that is being made here in Perth to support the AUKUS strategic initiative that is now well underway. And to better understand the connective tissues between our three navies and the Allies and partners that we have across the region. And envisage the sort of operations that we're going to be involved in over the years ahead from Western Australia, in this critically important economic part of the world, the Indian Ocean. So it's a privilege to be here, I'm sure our conversation will cover a lot of the ground over the next 45 minutes or so.

Adm. Lisa Franchetti, Chief of Naval Operations, United States Navy

All right. I'm Admiral Lisa Franchetti, Chief of Naval Operations for the United States Navy. And again, it's really a privilege to be here today. And I think this is a very timely conversation as we think about Indian Ocean Defense Security, this conference is an amazing chance to first talk about AUKUS this morning. I think AUKUS is really a once in a generation opportunity to knit together the amazing relationship and build on over 100 years of partnership between our navies operating all around the world. Sometimes we say we stand shoulder to shoulder but in the maritime, we steam in formation. And AUKUS is a great opportunity to really build on that. I think the capabilities of each one of our nations, both in our Sailors and in our officers, in our defense industrial bases, will all be raised through AUKUS. And as Admiral Ben said, it was really exciting to have the chance to visit HMAS Stirling and be here in Western Australia, because we can see the progress made in just this short period of time, at getting after the goals and objectives that we've set for ourselves in AUKUS.

I'm really excited. I'm committed to working with my teammates here, and it is going to be an amazing conversation today. So again, thank you for the chance to kick this off and talk about how AUKUS is critically important to stability not just in the Indian Ocean and the Pacific Ocean, but really all around the globe.

Scott

Thank you, all of you. I think the symbolism of having you all together on the stage like this is very powerful. I think let's just kick things off with a pretty simple one start with perhaps you, could kick us off Admiral Franchetti, an easy one, how important is the Indian Ocean to your nations security, we can work our way down the line.

Franchetti

The Indian Ocean is absolutely critical. And as we already heard this morning, we talked about all of the trade, the commerce, the resources the Allies, the partners, the nations that border the Indian Ocean, and that impact is felt globally. Unlike land borders, the maritime really has no borders, and what we see and you can just look all around the world at all the challenges we face, it really flows freely from ocean to ocean. And it's important that we focus on each and every aspect and what we can do together to uphold that rules-based international order that has supported us, our prosperity, our security for the last three quarters of a century. I would say, if you're not sure if the United States focuses on the Indian Ocean, remember that we changed the name of our Pacific Commander to Indo-Pacific commander, and again, that just really underscores the importance and the value that we place on this region and our relationships here.

Key

I think you're gonna find us in violent agreement on some of these strategic themes, but just to pull out a couple of the kind of perspectives from the UK. For a long time there was a. there's a narrative around the UK that it is a Euro-Atlantic nation, by geography that was where we should focus. But we're a member of a global economy that is actually being driven by this part of the world. And so it is absolutely in the UK's interest to want to engage with it, because we are part of that global economy.

And so when I look at why we should be interested here, it's because if you want to be part of the rules-based international system, if you want to contribute to the global economic prosperity model that has served us well for the last number of decades, then we have an obligation to play our part in a small way to ensuring security so that economic and free trade can flow. And those who are going about their peaceful and lawful business can do so, because as Admiral Lisa has said and no doubt Admiral Mark will say, the oceans are open to all, but not constrained by geography, all we're doing is we're influenced by weather… and depth of water…but otherwise, we can go about our business. And it is really important, therefore that we are seen to operate closely together, as Navies to create that framework, and as nations to create the environment for us to go about that economic prosperity that affects us all.

Scott

Thank you. Vice Admiral.

Hammond

Not much left to say, apart from, the Indian Ocean is home to nearly 35% of the world's population and $2.9 billion dollars, and 38 coastal states that frame the Indian Ocean. And as a three ocean Island trading nation, we derive our economic wellbeing from the sea routes that allow free flow of trade in the seabed cables that connect us to the international financial system, and the internet of things. So the Indian Ocean is absolutely foundational to our national security, our economic wellbeing. And our access to that domain is an essential issue for our nation, as an island trading nation. So one third of the national coastline is Western Australia. That means one third of our economy, access to the sea is dependent upon the Indian Ocean facing coastline. So it's absolutely fundamental, foundational and securing our access to that sea in the coming years, assuring our access to the maritime domain, will be determinative when it comes to assuring the economic prosperity of our nation.

Scott

I'd ask you this one Admiral Key. By 2027 Submarine Rotational Forces (SRF) West is expected to be operational just over 30 kilometers southwest of here as you know. What strategic opportunities does operating out of here present over and above other options in this region? And how will that early phase of AUKUS affect your neighbors' operations and capabilities in the Indo-Pacific?

Key

Well we demonstrated in 2021, but, you know, despite the challenges presented by the COVID pandemic, that ability to operate HMAS Astute out of Stirling gave us a operational reach that you don't have, if we're dependent on purely doing that from the UK. But nuclear submarines require particular, and in some cases, unique levels or types of support. And so having here in Stirling through SRF-West, the kind of setup and framework that gives us that logistic, engineering, and kind of material confidence and assurance and allows us to sustain operations at range, actually enables the kind of framework, obligations and commitments that we were talking - all three of us - were talking about, about how we go about ensuring a secure maritime environment for trade and relationships and partnerships to grow.

So the excitement for me is that it opens up another dimension and other parts of the world for us to think about long-term sustained forward deployments of UK SSNs into a part of the world where we used to operate our diesel electric boats with a huge amount of confidence, and Admiral Mark will no doubt tout out all the statistics being a historian of the Submarine service in the way that he is. Nuclear submarines take a particular level of support, and the fact that Australia is now making that investment here - not just in the state but in the Commonwealth - for your own benefit, but also for ours as well, I think is a huge strategic statement of opportunity, and also for us obligation as members of the AUKUS framework.

Franchetti

Yeah, to build on what Admiral Ben is saying, and really from our visit yesterday, to have a chance to think about the future… you can see it in what we saw yesterday. So I would say, just like you said, three things that this is going to enable us to do. First of all, being able to operate forward is a critical part of our Navy, for sure. We're a global Navy, we operate all around the world, we provide options every day to our nation's decision makers, just like every other Navy. And navies are unique, because if you can posture yourself forward, you're more likely to be in a position where you can provide those options, you can be ready to provide an additional deterrent message, you can be ready to respond in a crisis, and if necessary, you can be ready to fight and win alongside our Allies or partners in a war. And so having this flexibility of operating forward is absolutely critical. You think about the distances of the Indian Ocean, of the Pacific Ocean, again, having touch points where you can go and have these unique maintenance and logistics support opportunities, it really extends our reach and our ability to work together.

I would say the second thing that it will provide is an opportunity, really to continue to march down the things that we need to do collectively, for the AUKUS partnership. You've already seen a couple of US attack submarine port visits here this year, you are going to see the Emory S. Land, which has been making its way around through some very amazing and successful port visits around Australia, she's going to be here and do a tendered maintenance period, where one of our fast attack submarines will come here and have maintenance done. And that maintenance is going to be done by the integrated team of Australians, of Royal Navy, and of U.S. Sailors that have been training together to be able to start doing this maintenance together. So we'll be able to do that in the future. So again, in 2027, this is another touch point on that milestone of the capabilities we need to have.

And I would finally say the third thing is that, with our fast attack submarines will come our people and our families. And what I've seen from doing two overseas tour, that integration of families into the community, the opportunity to get to know each other as people, to understand the land, to understand what we hear in the welcoming ceremony. This is a really good opportunity to even further build that relationship between our nations. So I'm very excited about 2027.

Scott

Just picking up on something you said there about, you know, your people coming to Western Australia to live and work. With that influx of foreign Sailors and their families that are going to be here within the next three or four years. What is needed to support them and have you, is there enough schooling? Is there enough housing? How many are we likely to see stationed out here? How long will their postings be?

Franchetti

Yeah, well, this is again, yet another exciting thing that we got to talk about yesterday. And you know, the government here in Western Australia and all the different ministries are very focused on working with the Navy, and our navies are working on defining exactly what those types of requirements would be. From what would be the expectations for housing, for schooling, for driving on the other side of the road, for the things that we would need to learn and our Sailors would need to learn along with their families. And then again, how long is an optimal posting? As our normal rotations are about three years… How would that look? Would there be a chance to do a follow on tour maybe in the maintenance facility so you could be here for six years, maybe go back to another submarine, especially if they really like being here in Western Australia? So those will be things that we talk about. Again, very excited to have that opportunity and right now it's our responsibility as service chiefs to think really hard, and put together a team that can look at all the different facets of what it will take to bring U.S. Sailors, their families over here. So it's great work for us to be doing.

And it was good to see a lot of the initiatives already on HMAS Stirling, in terms of lodging for junior Sailors, lodging for more senior Sailors, lodging for families, and a lot of that groundwork is being laid and I'm very grateful for it, for you and for all that folks here and at HAMS Stirling for getting that work done early.

Hammond

You're welcome, Lisa.

Scott

Admiral Mark, do you think we're gonna be able to sustain this influx? I mean, we have to we have to make room for them.

Hammond

So, I think Western Australia absorbed 90,000 additional people last year, in one year? I think we're talking about 5,000 people over a much longer timeframe. So, the conversations I've had with West Australian government have put it into perspective through that lens for me. So, I'm confident. It requires an investment of resources, it requires that requires prioritization of effort, etc., and that's what we're leaning into. So I'm confident, and when you have a look at the accommodation that already exists at Garden Island for the unaccompanied members, it's certainly better than most of what I've lived in as a single member in my time in the Australian Defence Force… and I know it's got Admiral Key worried.

Quality, with a beautiful view across Cockburn Sound for almost every member. So no, I am confident. I don't want to walk away from - there are challenges, there are. It's going to require a whole of nation, whole of government, whole of community, and a whole community of practitioners here, to get the optimal outcome. But that's what we're focused on.

Key

And can I just pick up on that? Because earlier this year, we published in the United Kingdom, a command paper that the previous government did, which had broad bipartisan support on the extent of a whole of nation effort if you want to operate a nuclear submarine capability. It's not just something that navies do. We clearly have the kind of the sharp end of it, in terms of operating the platform. But in order to put in place the technology, the science, the engineering support, the wider logistics base, the family support… that does require a whole of government shoulder to put to will. And whilst I recognize that, constitutionally, the Australian Commonwealth and states are set up differently to that in the UK, or the U.S. The fundamentals in the UK command paper, I think would read across just as well into Australia, as they do in UK.

It requires schools to be orientated around so that the investment in STEM subjects is sufficient and appropriate. It needs universities and higher education colleges… TAFE, I think is the term here, to be invested in understanding that through-life nuclear perspective. Because it is a stewardship of decades, this is not a capability you can switch on and off at will. It takes as we've seen from our political leaders of all three nations, really clear strategic intent and decisive direction to be given. And then actually, you're committed, this is a digital point. You're either doing it or you're not. Which is not a discretionary point, at 7… we'll do it at .7, it doesn't really work like that. We've tried that in the UK on occasions in the past, and the government has been really clear, which is why the command paper came out. That actually it is a whole of nation effort. I applaud the kind of conversations we've had, particularly from the state ministers that we were privileged to meet last night, and also in conversations with them again. That kind of clarity of purpose. But we're all in this now. And it's going to take several years. So when we see the sort of early investments going, that momentum that's building now is a really justifiable early inject, but it's going to be around for a long time to come.

Scott

As you're talking about that momentum there. We know that AUKUS is going to require a massive lift on a number of fronts. Politically, technologically, financially, human resources. So I guess the question is, what early signposts of success are you looking for, I suppose before this conference reconvenes, in a couple of years?

Key

Well, just picking up, reconvening in 2026, we're going to be a year away from SRF-West, the optimal pathway, it's got some very demanding timelines on it. Navies quite like stretch targets, because they force innovation, not just from us, but from all the kind of broader maritime community, the industrial partners in the like, getting behind them. So in a year's time, I think your question was, we'd be sitting here confidently saying, "Yep, we can see that the plan is delivering from 2027. Here are the forward deployment program, the families are beginning to arrive, we've seen a growth of the numbers from all three nations in this area, and we can see an industrial base, also adapting at speed to deliver it." So that's what good would feel like to me and either us or our successors will be on stage going. "Yeah, looking good. It's been hard work. But we feel on track." That's what I think good feels like.

Scott

Lisa, what would good feel like for you?

Franchetti

Yeah, I was gonna say, it's important too, to step back and look at all the signposts we already have. And I think that's an important thing, just in a short period of time, things that we've already been able to accomplish. If you think about the Australian Navy folks that have already attended nuclear power training. We have new Australian naval officers now on several of our attack boats. We have a lot of people coming through nuclear power school. Another really unique thing we've been able to do is bring a lot of the maintenance personnel from here - civilian maintainers - bring them up to our Pearl Harbor Naval Shipyard, where we do a lot of maintenance, and also put them on the tender along with our uniformed personnel to be able to start to really understand the maintenance, all of the standards that are required. And it's different, and we're having really amazing success. So again, I think it's important to take a step back and look at all the things we've already done. And those are the signposts that I'm looking at. And everyone, we're all, as Admiral Ben said, sleeves rolled up. There is a lot of work to do, but the benefits.. you can see them, they're tangible. And we'll be looking for those signposts… but I'm confident that we're going to make them.

Hammond

Well, I think the one of the biggest challenges facing the Navy is the professional mastery and technical mastery journey around safe operation and custodianship of the naval Nuclear Propulsion plant. Forward of the nuclear market, we're good. We drive submarines, we fight submarines extremely well as a small Navy. And we've been embedding farther the nuclear bulk in U.S. Navy and Royal Navy submarines for decades. That's not the heartbeat. It's that professional mastery around stewardship of the naval nuclear reactor. So that's where I'll be looking for those green shoots to see people taking on leadership positions in reactive control rooms in the U.S. Navy, and the Royal Navy. Demonstrating competence day in, day out, and then a building cohort, that puts us on track for that. And then ashore, it's the similar sort of thing with respect to the industrial workforce, seeing more people become competent on the tools, with the technical books, etc. and demonstrating competency in sustaining this capability to the satisfaction of my colleagues here and their regulators as well. So that's where I'm initially focused on, there'll be lots of infrastructure and other things we need to look at. But when we're seeing progress in those areas, then I know we're on track.

Scott

Thanks, Admiral. Lisa, the capacity, and the industry constraints in all three countries have been very well documented. How confident are you that these AUKUS submarines will be delivered on time? And is there a contingency? Is there a plan B, if things don't go?

Franchetti

Well, I think there has been a lot of discussion about the submarine industrial base in the U.S. And I think the important thing is that everyone that's related to the submarine industrial base is very focused on improving those timelines, exactly what you talked about and we're making all those investments. We just made some announcements today back in the U.S. about some additional money that we're spending, of course, we're putting a lot of money into our submarine industrial base, because we know that we need to accelerate the building of our submarines. And that stems from some of the things you spoke about earlier, the workforce, developing the workforce, investing in our community colleges, investing in the flow, as Admiral Ben talked about, to generate those workers that are going to have the technical skills to be able to be a submarine builder. And we're starting to see already very good progress in that regard. The other one is investing in resilient supply chain, expanding the number of suppliers that we have so we cannot have choke points, as we're trying to build our submarines. And we have this good ground foundation of workers, of supply chain… and I think that is what you're going to really start to see take off.

So, these investments, I think Admiral Ben said it best yesterday - strategic patience. These are steady, long-term, substantial investments. In the U.S., it's all around our country, to bring together all of the things we know we need to do from supply chain management, workforce development, workforce retention, is another aspect of that, and making sure that we can accelerate the building to the numbers that we need to be able to satisfy exactly what we need in the U.S. and that we have submarines available for AUKUS as well. So I'm confident that we're going to be able to do that.

Scott

Admiral Ben, are you as confident that we're going to meet this pace?

Key

Earlier this year, the last government… and I stress again it was reiterated only last week by our new Secretary for Defense, you know, that completed continued commitment to the new government to the AUKUS program… when he was with the Deputy Prime Minister Markes in the UK. Earlier this year the government signaled an additional investment into the town of Barrow and the region around it, because it was recognized that in order to meet the growing delivery rate that was going to be required, not just in finishing our current Astute-class build, but then in the Dreadnought class, our new generation SSBN, and then beyond that into supporting SSN-A. And the decisions that will come from that. Then there has to be a resilient, sustainable and sufficient workforce. And that requires an area that's attractive for people to come and live and work and for their families to grow up and feel supported. And the government recognized that it had an obligation therefore to make that investment into the region.

Those of you who have gone to Barrow will recognize that it's been building submarines there for a long time, but it's somewhat at the end of the road. You know, you don't go somewhere … you don't go to Barrow to go somewhere else. And so, I hear all the people who've been there now. And so making sure that you've kind of got that correctly set so that you can then meet the delivery rate, and that your supply chain is configured appropriately, comes back to the defense command paper that was also issued earlier this year. So my sense is that it is challenging, these are difficult, complicated machines to build. And they take time, they take highly skilled workforces. But in doing so, if you get the framework, right, the environment right, then I've got every reason to believe that we can do it. And, as was indicated earlier in the sort of opening remarks from the Governor, when needs must, and pressure comes on, and our world is not getting any more stable or easier to understand, then all of our nations, and in fact, all of the nations here represented are capable of lifting the pace. And so I'm confident that we will hit the tempo that we need. But we shouldn't pretend at any stage that you get that as a free good.

Scott

Mark is going to be difficult, isn't it?

Hammond

It is going to be difficult. But let us remember our first submarine was built in Barrow, AE-1 and AE-2 were built over there in the United Kingdom. And AE-2 in particular, did something exceptional during World War One - described at the time as the finest act of submarining by anybody. And it's our submarine force is actually probably most highly regarded by the Turks of anyone. I've had that reflected to me a number of times by Turkish Fleet commanders. Apparently we're the best submariners in the world, because we were the first to penetrate the Dardanelles.

But we built submarines here before, so yes, it's difficult. But we have built submarines in Australia before and the Collins class remains one of the best conventional submarines on the planet bar none. Yes, it's getting old, but we've been managing those aging risks, and we'll continue to manage them. What we're going to do now is going to build another submarine with added degree of complexity. But we're not designing and building the naval nuclear reactor ourselves, that will come to us as a sealed module, it will be inserted in the design, the design which is being completed by the UK leadership. So we do difficult things in this country. We do them consistently, and we do them consistently well. So I think, to that point about strategic patience, this isn't a tactical program. This is a program that will span the leadership tenures of many politicians, many naval leaders, many defense force senior leaders, many industry leaders over many years. But I think there's more reason to be confident when you see the marshaling of national resource and willpower behind this. And I look forward to one day, watching one of these AUKUS submarines outperform expectations just like the Collins-class submarine have.

Scott

Mike, I want to ask…

Franchetti

Can I just build on one thing about the workforce. As I've gone around to visit all of our shipyards, the one thing I can say is that they are so proud of what they do. And I think we shouldn't underestimate the value of patriotism, the sense of shared commitment, and the fact that, you know, whether it's a welder, or whether it's the engineer who designed the submarine, they are very committed to our nation's defense and the role that they play in it. And they are excited about being part of AUKUS. So again, I think we do need to be eyes wide open about the challenges that we face. But, appealing to our people who are going to be this future workforce and getting them to understand how they fit in to our nation's defense and security is critically important part of this. It's beyond just technical. It's beyond just salaries, there's a little bit of that type of motivation, I think we need to remember to double down on.

Scott

Given the interoperability that AUKUS aspires to achieve and to the purpose to maintain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Is it inevitable that if we see conflict over Taiwan, that Australia will be dragged into that?

Hammond

No. Any participation by the Australian Defence Force in any conflict anywhere on the planet is a sovereign decision for the Australian Government. So, no. We operate ships that have been designed and built overseas routinely, and that doesn't wed us to the sovereign decision making of those foreign governments either. Is the alliance between Australia and United States fundamental to national security of Australia? It is and it has been for many, many years. And this relationship is over 100 years in the making. So, there's a political context to decision making around participation in conflict. It's our job to be ready and that's what we focus on as partners in this profession. We will be ready for the challenges of the day to the greatest extent possible within the resources and policy environment within which we serve.

Scott

Admiral Franchetti would you like to respond to that? How did that sit with you?

Franchetti

Well, that's exactly what I view. You know, every nation is a sovereign nation, every nations' decision makers are going to decide what they do in a time of conflict. But it is our job to provide those options, to be ready to respond, and deliver those options and then deliver on them… should we need to. So no matter where we are in the region, no matter where we are in the world, we serve together at the pleasure of our political leadership, and they're the ones who will make the decision. But they rely on us for military advice, and that's what we provide.

Hammond

Rob, if I may, to follow-up. We're not changing the nature of our operations. We already have a jointly developed combat system and weapon in our Collins-class submarines. And we already serve as an integrated force inside our Collins-class submarines. What we're changing is the propulsion system which enables those operations. That's what's changing. Full stop.

Scott

Admiral Ben, I suppose I'll direct this one to you, and then everyone else can comment. I know none of you will be really keen to weigh into the politics. But I have to ask, we've just seen a change in government in the United Kingdom and the U.S. is going to the polls very soon, and election is due here in Australia by May next year. So how robust is the AUKUS agreement with all that churn and change at government level, and I suppose the Trump factor as well?

Key

So I would refer back to the really clear statement made by John Healey, our Secretary of State for Defence, only last week, when he was hosting Deputy Prime Minister Marles in Sheffield, that the United Kingdom, under the new Labour Government is as committed 100% to the AUKUS agreement, as it was under its predecessor. In the UK, defense enjoys broad bipartisan support. We're about to enter a defense review, but I don't see anything in that, that is going to undermine the obligations and the energy that we're putting into the AUKUS framework.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if we don't come out of it even more, kind of double down on the importance of these partnerships. So what is demonstrated to my mind, is that the security of the nation, and our prime minister has been absolutely clear that - the new one - is the first obligation of government. And that tends to mean that you can move through election periods, and whilst there will be a lot of conversation about different political approaches, and different political policy choices in a range of areas, for those of us who are involved in defense and security matters, you tend to get a continuity, because the threats, which is what we're responding to, or will need to be able to respond to, don't change just because the people of the United Kingdom have gone to the polls. And I would suggest that, you know, these two nations sat to either side of me, have for a very long time, that the same is true of their nations as well. That's why we share value sets. That's why we can create frameworks such as AUKUS and commit to them as part of the international partnership. So I'm, I see no change in how AUKUS matters, or the importance of the partnerships that we have with the nations here and more broadly represented in the room.

Franchetti

Yeah, I would just say that it's, you know, as we've been in the military, 38 or 39 years each. And in the U.S., for sure, the center of our national defense strategy always comes down to partnerships. It's the relationships that we have with Allies and partners, we know that we'll never operate alone. And this is really the strength of what AUKUS represents. So I'm confident, when we think a little bit about AUKUS, we've got deep roots. The seeds were planted a long time ago, and we're continuing to water that AUKUS plant, and it is continuing to grow strongly. So I'm confident that we are going to move forward with AUKUS. And I don't want to speculate on anything related to election politics in the U.S. But again, our job is to provide that military advice, and when you think broadly about the strategic challenges that all of our nations face, continuing forward with AUKUS is critically important for our security, not just in the Indo-Pacific, but all around the globe.

Scott

Admiral Mark.

Hammond

Well it's the Vin diagram of national interest that underpins all of this, this program will enhance the industrial base of three nations and the defense capability of three nations, what's not to like about that as a political leader? I think it's a very compelling offer, no matter who's sitting in the senior leadership position, the political environment in all three nations. We just need to make sure that we deliver that uplift in industrial capability, that uplift in lethal capability in the three navies, and that's what the three of us are focused on.

Scott

Admiral Ben I'd like to ask you, your compatriot, the Chief of General Staff, sir Roly Walker, you can see what's coming can't you… has made some very frank remarks overnight - he's warning that Britain's army must be ready in three years to fight a war against what he's termed that axis of upheaval, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea. He's predicted that Russia will emerge from the Ukraine war very, very dangerous as his words, and wanting retribution against countries like the UK that supported Ukraine, like Australia, do you share his views?

Key

One of the advantages of being several time zones and several thousand miles away was that he didn't bother sharing the script with me in advance. So, the detailed logic underpinning that, I'm not going to, I'm not in a position to comment on. But there is a broader piece, which I do agree with, and which, Admiral, Sir Tony Radakin, the chief of defense staff, is also really clear on the record. If you accept the thesis, and I think most people in the room would, that the world is becoming less certain, with greater potential for instability, with a growing number of challenges, you know, the likes of which we have not seen for a long period of time. Then we who are leading defense forces have an obligation to ensure that the capabilities that we offer up to our political leaders are robust, resilient, and capable of responding in an operationally advantageous way to whatever we may be asked to do. And so I quite like the challenge he's set [for] the British Army. There's been a lot of commentary in the UK press and more broadly about the challenges that they have, that we all have, you know, the Royal Navy is not- not exempt from that. And by putting out a stretch target, in the way that he has, and said we're going to double lethality over the next three years. That doesn't mean changing the size, it's a mindset, it's making sure that you're optimizing what you've got available. Because you've never got everything you want.

The history of warfare is that it starts on the day not of our choosing, it's not always against the people we expect, and you have to go with what you've got. And so therefore, really getting our heads around that on every day, we are as ready and as best prepared as we can be. And that we're optimizing the investment, not just the treasure that we're entrusted with, but the intellectual capital, and the energy and talent of the people. And it's not just those of us in uniform - that's the broader industrial base - to making sure that you are better tomorrow than you are today. That sort of challenge into the system I really welcome and support. And I think as a group of Chiefs in the UK, we are completely aligned on that obligation to move, to move forward. So I don't absolve myself from Roly's themes at all. I've known Roly a really long time, I know that we share a lot of the same analysis, even if the absolute detail of what he said at RUSI I haven't yet come to terms with.

Scott

Admiral Lisa, what do you think of Sir Roly Walker's comments about that axis of upheaval?

Franchetti

Well, I would agree that if you look all around the world, the challenges are really endless. And I think every day, and when I became the Chief of Navy, I put out a paper called America's Warfighting Navy. And it just talks about who we are, what we do. Because our people expect us to be ready to deliver combat credible power to deter adversaries, to respond in a crisis, and if necessary to beat them in war. And I think that mindset is really important to our navies, because from our perspective is we for a long time, I think we really enjoyed sort of unfettered access to the seas. I think many of us took for granted the ability for free trade, commerce, the flow, the preservation of international law. And I think you do see that under threat everywhere. If you look in Ukraine, you look in the Red Sea, you look in the South China Sea, it is really important that we don't take that for granted. So especially as navies, it's important that we talk about that with our Sailors, with our civilians, with our tacticians, with our strategic planners, so we can make sure that we're gonna deliver warfighting advantage every day because you do go to war with the Navy that you have. And we've got to be ready to employ that. And the other part of that, again, going back to our workforce and all of our Sailors… it's employing what you have in a different way. So if you want to get more players on the field, you want to use what you have differently, that comes from the innovation and the creativity of our Sailors. And if we can learn how to unleash that and give them that mindset, that's going to make us successful in the future no matter where the crisis is.

Scott

Admiral Mark what do you think?

Hammond

I'd like to like to pick up on Ben's point about the history of warfare. Let's remember that the conflict ends when one of the protagonists loses either the national willpower or the economic ability to continue the fight. And that to me is where the ripples come across here. As the Chief of the Navy of an island trading nation, it should surprise no one that I'm focused on our economic security, economic wellbeing that is derived from the sea lines of communication, those undersea cables. Because if you cannot maintain your economic wellbeing, for us the import-export of arrival of goods, then you cannot underwrite the mobility of the Australian Defence Force, let alone the civilian architecture which enables that. So that's where I'm focused in my lane, I would expect my great friend in General Simon Stuart, to absolutely be advocating for the most capable, most lethal, Army force that the nation can afford for the same reason. We do live in an environment where the future is uncertain, my personal philosophy is that we have an obligation to do everything humanly and legally possible, to assure the economic wellbeing and national security of this nation. And that's what we are all focused on - the same for Air Marshal Steve Chappell, our new Chief of Air Force. The three of us work as a team to make sure that we generate the most capable and integrated force within the policy environment and resource constraints we have in the day. So it does not surprise me that there was commentary, informed commentary, no doubt, on how we come together as a team, as an integrated force - at sea is where we're focused - but domestically, and in our own respective nations, we need to do that as part of a much larger organization. And that includes space and cyber, and I'll leave it there.

Key

I think it's also really important we don't lose track of the importance of deterrence here, and deterrence… war is not something rational people seek, because it is by its very nature, chaotic and irrational in the outcomes. And so it's a it is a point of last resort. Many a staff college essay starts with Clausewitz and Sun Tzu… and ends there as well. But in order for deterrence to work, we have to demonstrate capable, high levels of capability that put into the minds of others doubt about whether or not they would be successful in achieving their aims, whoever they are, and whatever those aims must be.

And so when you look at the 75th anniversary of NATO, there's just been marked - two NATO nations on stage, His Excellency, the governor referred to, the kind of the additional investment and the strength of the narrative around NATO, Australia a close partner of NATO, with a permanent presence in Brussels to understand what the Alliance is doing. All of that is to underpin a really clear statement of credible capability that is being invested in, and advanced. And we have an obligation as professional military, maritime military leaders, but no different to our fellow Chiefs, to be demonstrating integrated, international, collaborative capability that is increasing and maturing and developing, and therefore representing the challenges to what we do will be met robustly. And actually, therefore, the deterrence narrative is as important, if not more so, in creating space for peaceful resolution to be found, as it is that we are also demonstrating that we are prepared to fight if that is what our political leadership and the national interest requires. And I think sometimes in the narrative of, you know, we could be at war in three years' time, you lose the point that we don't want to be, we want to be able to deter that opportunity, but you don't deter by stepping back from the challenges, you deter by stepping and leaning into it.

Scott

Just picking up on the deterrence factor you mentioned. One of the greatest challenges to realizing the delivery of the nuclear powered submarines is the development and refinement of the SSN AUKUS design and the development of an integrated build strategy. Where is that up to?

Hammond

You're the lead.. [laughter]

Key

So, one of the things about when you set out on a, a multi-decade, strategic activity, is that a number of people want all the answers now. And by its very nature, there are a number of phases to the Optimal Pathway, the first of which is SRF-West being available, and demonstrating that we can operate nuclear submarines from here. The second, which I know is been hugely invested in, is then Australia operating sovereign Virginia class, and the third phase of that is SSN AUKUS. And so it's not surprising that whilst a number of key decisions have been made around choices of combat system, choices of reactor, and the like. There's still a lot of work going on in the design and the maturing of the capability that we will build. That we can't sit and wait years and years and pontificate about that because there is a number of long-leads items that need to be procured. Some of the reactor decisions are already absolutely confirmed and now in long-term production. But I'm confident that the work that's going on, the way that the choices are being rigorously examined and slowly down selected against the timeline that we need to meet, will ensure that SSN AUKUS arrives on time, delivering just the capabilities we require and crewed either by UK crews, or Australia crews, or very probably a mixture of both because we will be so integrated by then that it will almost just be a natural thing of what we're doing.

But I will just offer a point, SSN AUKUS is not going to arrive for a number of years yet. So, the fact that we can't tell you exactly where every tap is going to be placed onboard shouldn't be a matter of concern. We do know though, 'cause we got a significant amount of experience between these two nations building nuclear submarines, what decisions need to be made and when. And those are being advanced at the tempo that's required.

Hammond

I'm relaxed now Rob, how about you?

Scott

Nothing to add?

Hammond

Well look, it's one of the most complex machines that mankind builds. And there's a right time to lockdown key technology decisions, and I don't want the 2024 best sonar of the day. I want the best sonar available in the 2040s when the first ship comes online. So, there's some decisions you want to make at the last safe moment, whilst preserving the design space throughout the early years.

What's more pressing for me is Henderson consolidation to enable the SSN sustainment activities here in Western Australia and the design of the shipyard to build SSN AUKUS over in Adelaide, which is a great opportunity, frankly with the Greenfield side to potentially build the best shipyard in the world for building nuclear-powered submarines based upon the lessons identified and alluded to by our partner navies here. So, I think Ben's absolutely right. There's a right time and a place to be talking about the maturity of the design of SSN AUKUS, but this program has phases for good reason.

Scott

Probably our last question because we only have a minute or so left. Admiral Lisa, to you, what does Australia and WA in particular need to be doing more of to make sure that AUKUS is successful?

Franchetti

Well again, this is my first opportunity to visit here, and I was really impressed with the level of commitment, with a good understanding of the path forward for SRF-West and beyond. And I'm really encouraged by all of the conversations at every level. From local, federal, Navy, Navies, and talking about things very transparently, candidly and openly, about what we need to do to make it successful. So what they could do more is continue more of that conversation, because building together an integrated team that is going to take us forward over the many challenges that we'll have to face.. move through them, move on, and get on to the next one… I think having that integrated long-term team, and doing more of what we're doing right now is gonna make us successful in the future.

Scott

An enlightening conversation, thank you very much to all three of you.

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