09/13/2024 | Press release | Distributed by Public on 09/13/2024 12:31
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Reducing risk and enhancing housing finance liquidity
All Resources to Manage Financial Uncertainty
All Resources for Recovering from a Disaster
Recovery Assistance for Homeowners
Recovery Assistance for Renters
Key Takeaways:
Inflation data came in largely in line with our forecast. Cooling price gains were evident through most major categories, with the notable exception of shelter. Admittedly, shelter inflation hasn't slowed as much or as swiftly as we have expected up to this point, though more timely market measures continue to suggest that shelter inflation will slow over time. Regardless, the Fed's preferred PCE measure of inflation puts a much smaller weight on shelter, so we don't believe this reading will meaningfully impact the course of monetary policy.
The large increase in credit outstanding suggests that consumers may have turned to credit card usage to fuel a large increase in July spending that was not supported by rising incomes. Still, credit balances as a ratio of disposable income remain within historical norms. We continue to believe consumption will slow in line with muted income growth, though, a view that was supported by the NFIB respondents reporting lower sales outlooks than before.
Nathaniel Drake
Economic and Strategic Research Group
September 13, 2024
Opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views of Fannie Mae's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group included in these materials should not be construed as indicating Fannie Mae's business prospects or expected results, are based on a number of assumptions, and are subject to change without notice. How this information affects Fannie Mae will depend on many factors. Although the ESR Group bases its opinions, analyses, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views on information it considers reliable, it does not guarantee that the information provided in these materials is accurate, current, or suitable for any particular purpose. Changes in the assumptions or the information underlying these views could produce materially different results. The analyses, opinions, estimates, forecasts, beliefs, and other views published by the ESR Group represent the views of that group as of the date indicated and do not necessarily represent the views of Fannie Mae or its management.