California 2024 Election Update

California races from the Nov. 5, 2024, election, including those for U.S. Congress, the California Senate and Assembly, ballot measures, and key local races, are being closely watched, with some still undecided. This GT Alert provides known results as of Nov. 10, 2024, unless otherwise noted.

U.S. Senate

Democrat Adam Schiff has defeated Republican Steve Garvey, capturing 57% of the vote for both the partial term and a full six-year term. He will replace Sen. Laphonza Butler, whom the governor appointed in October 2023 to fill former Sen. Dianne Feinstein's seat.

U.S. House of Representatives

At least eight races in California are still too close to call. The outcome of these races could determine control of the U.S. House of Representatives.

California State Races

Democrats in the California Senate have held the supermajority for 12 years, and Republicans are not close to breaking it in the 2024 election, despite 36 of 120 lawmakers in the Senate and Assembly leaving office due to term limits or other reasons (including a handful of assemblymembers running for Senate).

Overall, the balance of power will not shift in either house. The Republicans would need to pick up five Senate seats and nine Assembly seats to break the supermajority. At most, results will shift one or two seats either way, maintaining the Democrat supermajority in both houses.

New members in the state legislature could be at highest level ever in the 2025 legislative session, possibly more than 2012, when 44 new members took office.

California Senate

The Democrats' supermajority is secure. Key Senate races include:

• Senate District 1: The Associated Press has called the race for Republican Megan Dahle, who leads Republican David Fennell with 76% of the vote.
• Senate District 5: Democrat Jerry McNerney narrowly leads Republican Jim Shoemaker. McNerney has 52% of the vote.
• Senate District 19: Republican Rosilicie Ochoa Bogh leads Democrat Lisa Middleton by just over six points. Bogh has 53% of the vote.
• Senate District 23: With 52%, Republican Suzette Martinez Valladares leads Democrat Kipp Mueller.
• Senate District 37: Republican Steven Choi, with 51% of the vote, maintains a slight lead Democrat Josh Newman.

California Assembly

The Democrat supermajority in the Assembly also remains secure. Noteworthy races include:

• Assembly District 7: Republican Josh Hoover, with 54% of the vote, leads Democrat Porsche Middleton.
• Assembly District 27: With 53%, Democrat Esmeralda Soria leads Republican Joanna Garcia Rose.
• Assembly District 36: Republican Jeff Gonzalez, with 51%, maintains a slight lead over Democrat Jose Acuña Jr.
• Assembly District 40: With 53% of the vote, Democrat Pilar Schiavo maintains a lead over Republican Patrick Lee Gipson.
• Assembly District 58: Republican Leticia Castillo, who has 51% of the vote, leads Democrat Clarissa Cervantes. This race was not closely monitored prior to the election.
• Assembly District 76: Democrat Darshana Patel, with 53%, has widened a lead over Republican Kristie Bruce-Lane.

State Ballot Measures

• Proposition 2: Issue Public Education Bonds - PASSED

California voted to pass Proposition 2, which authorizes the state to issue $10 billion in bonds to improve public school and community college facilities. Proposition 2 passed with 57% of the vote.

• Proposition 3: Enshrine marriage rights in the state Constitution - PASSED

Sixty-one percent of voters voted "yes" on Proposition 3, which amends the California Constitution to enshrine the fundamental right to marry regardless of sex or race and removes language in the state constitution stating that marriage is only between a man and woman.

• Proposition 4: Bonds for safe drinking water and climate change response - PASSED

Proposition 4, which authorizes $10 billion in bonds for safe drinking water, wildfire prevention, and climate risk protection, passed 58% to 42%.

• Proposition 5: Lower the vote threshold for passing local housing and transportation bond measures - FAILED

Fifty-six percent of Californians voted "no" on Proposition 5, which would have lowered the vote needed to pass local affordable housing and transportation bond measures from two-thirds voter approval to 55% voter approval.

• Proposition 6: Ban involuntary servitude in state prisons - FAILED

California voters did not approve Proposition 6, which would have amended the state constitution to remove the current provision that allows jails and prisons to force incarcerated persons to work. Fifty-five percent of voters voted "no" on Proposition 6.

• Proposition 32: Raise minimum wage - FAILED

Proposition 32 sought to increase California's hourly minimum wage. It failed, with 52% of voters voting "no."

• Proposition 33: Repeal prohibition on city and country rent ordinances - FAILED

Proposition 33, which would have repealed an existing law that prohibits city and county governments from setting rent limits, failed. Sixty-one percent of voters voted "no."

• Proposition 34: Restricting spending by certain health care entities - PASSED

Voters narrowly approved Proposition 34, which will require certain health care providers to spend most of their revenue from the federal discount prescription drug program on direct patient care. Fifty-two percent of voters voted "yes."

• Proposition 35: Provides permanent funding for Medi-Cal services - PASSED

Proposition 35 passed, with 67% of voters voting "yes." It will make permanent an existing tax on managed health care insurance plans to provide revenue to pay for Medi-Cal services.

• Proposition 36: Allows for felony charges and increased sentences for certain drug and theft crimes - PASSED

Proposition 36 will allow for felony charges for possession of certain drugs of thefts under $950 if the offender has two prior drug or theft convictions. Seventy percent of voters voted "yes."

Key Local Races

• San Francisco Mayor

Daniel Lurie won the race for San Francisco mayor, receiving 56% support and besting incumbent Mayor London Breed.

• Oakland Mayor and District Attorney

Oakland Mayor Sheng Thao appears likely to be recalled, with 64% of voters voting "yes." If Thao is recalled, Oakland City Council President Nikki Fortunato Bas will take over as interim mayor until a new mayor is elected via a special election. Oakland District Attorney Pamela Price also appears likely to be recalled. Sixty-five percent of voters voted for her recall. If Price is recalled, her successor will be appointed by the Alameda County Board of Supervisors and will serve until the next election in 2026.

• Los Angeles District Attorney

Nathan Hochman, a former federal prosecutor, won the race for Los Angeles district attorney over incumbent George Gascón. Although the count is not final, Gascón has conceded to Hochman, who received 60% of the vote as of the evening of Nov. 9.

• Sacramento Mayor

The Sacramento mayor's race remains undecided. Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, with about 54% of the vote, has a 9-point lead over Flojaune Cofer. An estimated 57% of the vote is counted. Current Mayor Darrell Steinberg, who has served since 2016, did not run for reelection.

• San Diego Mayor

Incumbent Todd Gloria, with 55% of the vote, is more than 10 points ahead of his challenger, Larry Turner, as of the afternoon of Nov. 9.

Conclusion

The results of these races and ballot measures reflect counts as of Nov. 10, unless otherwise noted, and are subject to change.

* Special thanks to Rocco Pallin ̆ for contributing to this GT Alert.
̆ Not admitted to the practice of law.

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